2016 Postmortem
Related: About this forumSanders lead in all of his caucus wins combined equals only 284,471 votes.
These are the vote counts of all of the caucus states Bernie won. I show his total number of votes, followed by Clintons total number of votes, and then the difference between them.
This is based on the best numbers I could find, but please let me know if I made any mistakes.
Washington
167,201 - 62,330 = 104,871
Minnesota
118,135 - 73,510 = 44,625
Idaho
18,640 - 5065 = 13,575
Utah
61,333 - 15,666 = 45,667
Hawaii
23,530 - 10,125 = 13,405
Maine
30,092 - 16,614 = 13,478
Wyoming
3920 - 3080 = 840
Colorado
72,115 - 49,314 = 22,801
Kansas
26,450 - 12,593 = 13,857
Nebraska
19,120 - 14,340 = 4780
Alaska
8586 - 2014 = 6572
His total lead in all of these states combined equals 284,471 votes.
And that's only the caucuses that he won. That's not including any of Clinton's caucus wins, which would be a much fairer comparison.
msongs
(67,395 posts)ContinentalOp
(5,356 posts)He already spent them all
SFnomad
(3,473 posts)Armstead
(47,803 posts)ContinentalOp
(5,356 posts)My point is that even if a particular media outlet is somehow not accurately counting all of the caucus votes, it would hardly make a dent in Clinton's 3 million vote lead.
Agschmid
(28,749 posts)Armstead
(47,803 posts)Say the caucuses were primaries and had the same results on a larger scale. Both candidates would add significant number of votes to their total proportionately, if you assume the same results....
And the same unknowns play into both hypotheticals, because the outcome might have been the same, somewhat different or flipped if they had been primaries.
We'll never know, so have to go with the proportional apples with apples as they are.
Agschmid
(28,749 posts)ContinentalOp
(5,356 posts)First of all, this seems to be an admission that caucuses suppress voter turnout. Which is interesting, because I thought Sanders supporters argued that caucuses are perfectly democratic and accessible to all.
So you seem to be saying that we would have to extrapolate based on population? I thought I saw somebody else making this argument on another thread, but it seemed so crazy that I assumed I misunderstood. But basically the argument is that since only 200k people participated in the WA caucus, and 1.7 million people in WA voted for Obama in the last presidential election, we should extrapolate that out and multiply Sander's votes by 8.5? That's crazy. And it ignores the fact that Clinton has consistently done better in primaries and done better when turnout is higher.
All we can do is add up the actual votes that were cast. If the race were somewhat close you might have a point, but she's winning by such a large margin that it just sounds like sour grapes.
DemocratSinceBirth
(99,710 posts)ContinentalOp
(5,356 posts)DemocratSinceBirth
(99,710 posts)ContinentalOp
(5,356 posts)DemocratSinceBirth
(99,710 posts)Outside of his home state of Vermont can anybody point to primaries where he has won in such large numbers?
The data indicates club, errrrrrrr, caucus voting inflates his votes.
Agschmid
(28,749 posts)morningfog
(18,115 posts)morningfog
(18,115 posts)Those are delegates at the state and district level. Your op is not accurate.
ContinentalOp
(5,356 posts)But to the best of my knowledge these are in fact actual or estimated vote totals.
For example, in WA, the total turnout was 230,000 participants. Sanders won by 72.7%, giving him 167,201 votes to Clinton's 62,330 votes, for a 104,871 vote lead.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/fact-checker/wp/2016/04/06/is-hillary-clinton-really-ahead-of-bernie-sanders-by-2-5-million-votes/
morningfog
(18,115 posts)Looks correct.