Predictive Markets now looking at Clinton's VP pick (Bernie makes the list!)

[Godhumor]

Clinton's VP:

Tim Kaine - 19%
Julian Castro - 18%
Elizabeth Warren - 16%
Bernie Sanders - 10%

http://predictwise.com/

On the Trump side, Newt is the clear favorite at 30%.

[The Velveteen Ocelot]

1. Tim Kaine??

[Godhumor]

2. Largely because the media has said he might be picked

I'd put my money on Castro.

[Attorney in Texas]

5. It will be a centrist while male who won't outshine her from a battleground state. Kaine fits that

bill.

Hopefully, we can relieve her of the choice.

[The Velveteen Ocelot]

6. I don't think she'd pick a white guy. At least not a sap like Kaine.

Castro will suit her better - he's at least a Latino corporate toady.

[Attorney in Texas]

8. If Rubio or Cruz had won the nomination, Hillary might have considered Castro (his centrist views

match hers), but since Trump won the nomination, she is already performing at about her peak with Hispanic voters and, with or without Castro, Texas is not in play in 2016 regardless of who we nominate at the top.

The Clintons are highly focus grouped. They'll want someone who does not outshine her, someone who can raise funds, someone who is a centrist-to-right ideologically domestically and right of center on foreign policy, someone who helps in a swing state, someone who's nomination will not give a Republican governor a chance to flip a Democratic Senate seat red, and -- mostly -- someone who is uncontroversial to suburban soccer moms who generally vote Republican but might be put off by a Trump candidacy; someone like Tim Kaine, Mark Warner, Evan Bayh, Tim Roemer, Martin Heinrich, Michael Bennet. If she gets to pick the VP and goes outside the box, maybe even Brian Sandoval.

[Lizzie Poppet]

20. Exactly: Trump handed her the Latino vote...so no need to pander to them.

The group she needs most is centrist independents. Count on the VP pick appealing to that demographic.

[Attorney in Texas]

22. It is sad that Hillary would approach the issue that way, but she would. I agree that she would

probably pander to white suburban married women who usually vote Republican if we nominate her and she is choosing a VP (and white suburban married women who usually vote Republican like white centrist male candidates).

I presume that Hillary sees these as the Republicans who may be most likely to become dissatisfied with Trump as her biggest target. I think that's a mistake. I think she underestimates how disliked she is among Republicans (and so trying to pick them off is probably a fool's errand).

Instead, Hillary should address her enthusiasm gap. Hillary underestimates the lack of enthusiasm (if we nominate Hillary, the turn out model will look like a hybrid between a presidential election year turnout model and a non-presidential-cycle model). Democrats perform worst when turnout is lowest, and so Hillary would be best off picking a VP who will generate enthusiasm to bring our turnout model up closer to Obama levels. To do this, Hillary would need to pick a candidate who would excite the base. Elizabeth Warren would do this best. John Hickenlooper would be another good option (as a well liked progressive Democrat from a battleground state).

[brooklynite]

7. He also speaks fluent Spanish and comes from a battleground State with a Democratic Governor

[Jitter65]

11. Sheered Brown would insure Ohio?

[Attorney in Texas]

12. But Kasich would pick his replacement. Plus, he's far too progressive for Hillary

[Iliyah]

3. No on BS, period

[bullwinkle428]

13. Would you refuse to vote for Hillary if she picked Bernie?

[Buzz cook]

27. Maybe.

It would depend on what he brings to the ticket.

[LexVegas]

4. No to Kaine. Hell no to Sanders. nt

[Jitter65]

9. I still like Sherrod Brown. A real progressive without the nasty tone.

https://www.brown.senate.gov/biography

http://www.ontheissues.org/OH/Sherrod_Brown.htm

Bernie-bots may not like him because he is a genuine Democrat and progressive. They can't argue with anything in his record. Except that he supports and has endorsed Hillary.

[JaneyVee]

10. Yup!

[DemocratSinceBirth]

14. Yup!

[Attorney in Texas]

16. Everybody likes Sherrod Brown but John Kasich would pick his replacement in the Senate

[polly7]

15. Bernie Sanders would be wasted as VP. He would never, ever accept. nt.

[MFM008]

26. Polly

You NEVER know. He has not ruled it out.
Kennedy and Johnson hated each other but Kennedy needed Texas.
He may feel he can keep a better eye on things from the white house.
Never say Never.

[Bernie4VP]

17. Vegas can say what it likes

If Hillary is smart, Bernie should be at the top of her list (Isn't it pretty common for the 2nd place finisher to get the VP nod anyway?) If the Bernie crowd doesn't show up or votes for Trump she's not going to win, simple as that. She needs to at least offer it to Bernie first; It will move the ticket to the left, and make Bernie's supporters not feel like they're being marginalized.

[FSogol]

18. No: "Isn't it pretty common for the 2nd place finisher to get the VP nod anyway?"

When has that happened in the last 50 years?

[Nye Bevan]

23. Great question. It happened in 1980 with the Republicans,

but I have no idea when this last happened with the Democrats.

[Lizzie Poppet]

21. Most Bernie supporters I know are aghast at the very idea.

The few that aren't support it because they're assuming she'll be impeached (and if the GOP retain the Senate, convicted).

[DemocratSinceBirth]

24. Might as well get this in. You can't vote on elections at Vegas. It's against the law.

These odds are coming mostly from off shore betting markets.

[NurseJackie]

19. My original two predictions are in the bottom half.

Tim Kaine 18%
Elizabeth Warren 12%
Julian Castro 18%
Bernie Sanders 10%
Tom Perez 9%
Sherrod Brown 10%
Cory Booker 6%
Al Franken 4%
Deval Patrick 3%
Martin OMalley 2%

http://predictwise.com/blog/2016-president-democratic-vice-president-nomination

[wildeyed]

25. Newt Gingrich?

NO WAY! That would be funny. He should pick what's her face, the one Cruz picked. Or, I know, Governor Pat "Bathroom Cop" McCrory He will be out of a job after November, anyway. Or if he really wants to go old school, he could pick Dan "Potatoe" Quayle.