Larry Sabato has become a buffoon

[Welcome_hubby]

Sabato recently called Wisconsin a "toss-up" on the grounds that a Marquette University had Obama up by just 1%. Now that Marquette has Obama up by 8%, Sabato considers Wisconsin a....toss-up!

Here's why Sabato says Wisconsin is a toss-up state:

"However, some Republicans seem to think that Wisconsin might be a better target than Ohio, so we want to see what the GOP throws into the Badger State at the end. TOSS-UP"

http://www.centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/articles/president-too-close-to-call-democrats-hold-senate-edge-prior-to-final-weekend/

Again, Sabato's logic is this:

Some Republicans think Wisconsin is better than Ohio for Romney, therefore Wisconsin is a toss-up.

Does it make sense to you? Because it makes no sense to me.

[WI_DEM]

1. Isn't he on FAUX a whole lot?

[DemocratSinceBirth]

2. Sabato Is An Old School Political Scientist

His kind lost the battle thirty years ago when Political Science and all the social sciences became much more oriented toward the empirical than the subjective.

[geek tragedy]

3. Florida leans Romney (margin 1.2%) but Wisconsin (margin 4.0%) is a tossup.

He's a wanker.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

4. A Currently Trained Political Scientist/Statistician Would Just Run A Simulation

An old school political scientist would just look at a bunch of polls, choose the one he likes best, and go with his gut.


None of the other models by political scientists have this race a toss up...

[geek tragedy]

6. It makes zero sense for OH to be leans Obama but WI to be a tossup.

I can see the argument for both tossup, both lean Obama, or OH tossup and WI lean Obama.

But the way he has it is just bizarre.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

8. He Probably Has A (Gut) Feeling WI Is Leaning Republican Because Walker Survived The Recall

That being said the same agggregated polls that show O winning WI came within one tenth of a percent of predicting the recall results.

See where I/ you are going with this.

[geek tragedy]

11. Or, because Romney people are spinning him hard on WI.

And he's going to wait another weekend before deciding whether data is more persuasive than the proclamations from Bullshit Mountain.

[LiberalFighter]

21. If he uses that logic shouldn't it apply for Obama?

It is like a recall election for Obama whether to keep him or elect someone else.

[DURHAM D]

5. "become" - NO he has always been a partisan hack.

He made his bones pimping for Ken Starr.

[The Magistrate]

14. Hear Hear, Sir! A Cheerleader For The Coup Of '98

My memory is long for those who were part of that Treason....

"Speak of it never, think of it always."

[Bake]

20. Well said, Sir!

Some of us do have long memories.



Bake

[stopbush]

7. Simple - he's saying that WI could be a toss up IF the Rs redirect funds/resources into the state.

He's right that pouring $ into Wi might close the 8 pt gap, but I would disagree that there's any chance it moves WI into toss up status. It's too late for that, especially when you consider the way WI is trending.

Apparently, Sabato believes a huge enough expenditure/GOTV effort by the Rs will close an 8-point gap 5 days out.

Ain't gonna happen.

[Jennicut]

9. He has been dead on in past predictions, such as in 2006 when he was the only one to get the Senate

and House Dem gains correct. But on WI being a tossup I think he is very wrong. If FL is Repub leaning then WI is Dem leaning. WI is polling better for Obama then FL for Romney.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

10. Aggregate Polling Would Have Informed You Of Senate And House Gains

The latter is a bit trickier because there aren't polls for every congressional race. This presidential race, imho, is not a toss up. I think the only race I can recall that was a true toss up in my lifetime was 00 and even in that race Bush* had an edge. In fact, if there were as many models then as there are now , that race would have come close to proving them inaccurate. And in that race you had a somewhat legitimate third party candidate whose support collapsed in the waning hours.

[geek tragedy]

12. No state that Kerry won in 2004 is a toss up.

All of the toss ups are on the Bush 2004 state side.

[Jennicut]

15. I agree. We have Nate Silver and others using the averaging of all the polls

to show us a much clearer picture. Too bad Nate was not doing this in 2000. He was only about 22 then so I forgive him. I think he started in 2008.
Sam Wang got the 2004 election correct too.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

16. Only Fierce And Sorry To Say Delusional Partisans Didn't See 06 and 010 Coming/nt

[hrmjustin]

13. He has to keep a balanced approach, but his approach leaves a lot to be desired.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

17. Math Is Non Partisan/nt

[hrmjustin]

18. Well said.

[MSMITH33156]

19. He is just being

scared. He doesn't want to put Obama over 270, so he called Wisconsin a toss-up, leaving Obama at 261.

[ashling]

22. "has become"? as in just now?

Last edited Thu Nov 1, 2012, 11:16 PM - Edit history (1)

This clown has been a buffoon for some time now.

http://notlarrysabato.typepad.com/

[grantcart]

23. lol right on

[CreekDog]

24. No, no, that's not true!

he's always been one!

[sadbear]

25. If the republicans steal anything, it'll be Wisconsin.

Not sure if it's enough, but that's where it will happen.