Sanders sounds like he is expecting a defeat tonight in Oregon.

[DCBob]

Bernie said this during a Saturday phone interview with The Oregonian/OregonLive:

"If voter turnout is low, if young people and working people don't send in their ballots, we will probably lose"

He usually expresses a more confident and positive tone with states he expects to win. I think he must have some bad internal polling.

More from the interview..

Sanders acknowledged that he fares much better in states with open primaries, where unaffiliated voters can cast their ballots for Democratic and Republican candidates. In fact, he has yet to win in a state with a closed primary, like Oregon's.

For obvious reasons, he said, he's not a fan of closed primaries, but that his strength with independent voters bodes well in the general election.

http://www.oregonlive.com/pacific-northwest-news/index.ssf/2016/05/bernie_sander_says_hes_countin.html

=============

I think Hillary is going to win Oregon and its going to be a shock to the Berners.

[CrowCityDem]

1. The reports on the early votes were very encouraging. Wouldn't shock me at all.

[DCBob]

3. Where did you see those reports of early voting?

[Bluenorthwest]

7. There is no such data.

We vote by mail. There is no 'early voting' there is two weeks of voting. The 'polls' are open for two weeks. The data that exists is about ballots returned and where they come from. It's meaningless because it tends to be about access to drop offs and age, so older people and more rural voters get it in early, urban and younger voters always return ballots later.

[CrowCityDem]

11. Benchmark Politics

They were tweeting about the early turnout data, that showed much higher turnout in the older counties you would expect to be strong for Hillary, and the lowest turnout rates in Portland, which is Bernie's stronghold.

[DCBob]

12. Great news. thanks!

[Bluenorthwest]

18. I addressed that up thread. It's not 'turnout' at all, the vote by mail system means this sort of

data is not meaningful. This is the case in every election, it means nothing. It would be fun if it did, but it don't. Hillary did pretty well here in 08, Obama won but she had lots of support so I don't expect a Bernie blow out and I'd love it if there was any data to indicate anything, either way. But there isn't.

[DCBob]

23. Thanks for the clarification but I am still not sure if its meaningless or not.

[CrowCityDem]

26. It is and it isn't.

It does mean something to see that the places where younger voters are more concentrated have seen fewer turn in their votes ahead of time. Exactly what it means remains to be seen, but it's not nothing. You would have expected, given the 'enthusiasm' for Bernie, that his voters would have turned theirs in earlier. It's interesting to me that the areas you would expect Hillary to do better in have seen the most people making sure they get their vote in ahead of time.

[Viva_La_Revolution]

20. 50% will get dropped off today, to bring us over 50% total returned

She MIGHT get 35% of the vote

[Renew Deal]

4. No

[Renew Deal]

21. You need to brush up on history

[Sheepshank]

28. ...and you need to figure out why the losing team constantly calls for fraud at every turn.

MOST and I do mean MOST of the time they simply don't understand the Primary rules of each state and/or don't like the Primary rules that have been in place prior to the elections...and assume.

[SheenaR]

5. You are right

If she won tonight it would be a complete shock.

I do not see her winning Oregon tonight. If she does, then they did a very good job on the ground there.

Kentucky, different story. I think she will squeak out a 52-48 type win.

[winter is coming]

8. I think Kentucky will be close, either way. n/t

[YouDig]

6. That would be pretty amazing. Oregon is as close to a perfect Bernie state as they get.

[DCBob]

13. Perfect.. except for being closed.

That's a biggie.

[Jitter65]

15. And accept for having to take a further step to register after automatic registration...

I bet there will be a lot of people who failed to mail in their voter registration cards after being automatically registered as "unaffiliated."

[Bluenorthwest]

22. I've already given you the data. 25% of the 50,000 or so automatically registered persons

chose a Party affiliation in time for the Primary. Of that group of 12,500 or so people, 10,000 registered as Democrats, 2,000 or so as Republicans. Of the group that did not affiliate in time for the Primary, many will never affiliate, never vote. Remember they are people who could have registered at anytime but did not bother to do so.
It looks to me like those among the automatic registrants who cared to largely did join a Party. More will as time goes by.

A more interesting data point is that compared to 2008, three times as many already registered voters joined a Party or changed Parties. These are people who had self registered, active participating voters.

Now I've given you the data again. No need for guessing now, eh Jitter65?

[DCBob]

25. So 10,000 new Dems and who knows how many of those actually sent in their vote.

So turns out not such a huge number as we were hearing before.

[Txbluedog]

10. Campaigns always set low expectations

[DCBob]

16. True but his comment sounds more defeatist than just lowering expectations.

[Adrahil]

27. Not always....

Sanders predicted victory in both NY and PA.

[Jitter65]

14. Well, he fares well with Independent voters maybe because his has been an Independent for 15 years.

That doesn't surprise me. The Independents should start their own party with all open primaries.

[Jitter65]

17. Except for being "closed primaries" both OR and KY are made-to-order for Bernie.

I would really be surprised if Hillary won either of these EXCEPT events over the past few days have turned some against Bernie.

[DCBob]

19. Right.. but being closed is major.

He has yet to win one.

[anotherproletariat]

24. I think it is just the usual thing both he and Hillary have been doing before most primaries...

they both like to lower expectations. It would truly be a big blow for Sanders to lose Oregon though, since it has looked for months like this is a big stronghold for him. It's still probable he will pull out a win there. Kentucky could be closer, though.

[shireen]

29. wow ... nice to read a thread with civil exchanges between H and S supporters

Reading something of substance is refreshing.

Thank you!

[NWCorona]

31. I've heard him say that before a few states now. Even some he's won

I don't doubt that the OR poll that just came out is on the minds of team Bernie going into today tho.

I think Kentucky is the one to watch tonight. Hillary has put a lot of time and money into that state so it will be interesting if she loses. If she wins Oregon that will be a big win as she hasn't even really put any effort there.

[DCBob]

32. Yeah, and he has also claimed victory ahead of states he lost.

Regardless we will have two interesting races to follow tonight.