Clinton has been relying on the Obama Coalition throughout this campaign.

[Garrett78]

I keep seeing people point out that Clinton won such and such state in '08 but lost it this year. While true, it doesn't prove the point they seem to think it proves.

Surely people aren't just now realizing that Sanders is doing well where Clinton did well in '08. Clinton not doing as well in Kentucky (or Indiana or Oklahoma or Massachusetts, etc.) this year as she did in '08 is not a surprise, nor is it really meaningful. It follows a well-established pattern. If anything, it's surprising that she did as well as she did in some of those states.

Clinton is focused on winning the way Obama won. Naturally, this means her opponent (Sanders) is going to do well in places where Clinton did well against Obama in '08--when her target demographic was much different.

Again, this should be obvious and something everyone recognized months ago. Clinton does best in delegate-rich, diverse states. Sanders does best in less diverse and typically smaller states. That pattern was established more than 2 months ago. With there being no reason to believe that pattern would suddenly get flipped upside down, it's not hard to understand why many said Clinton had the nomination sewn up by mid-March.

Not to mention that at this stage in the game, the Clinton campaign is just going through the motions and waiting for the inevitable to become official. As was the case with Obama in '08 when he lost a majority of the primaries down the stretch, knowing that it didn't really matter. It's mere formalities going forward. Whether the convention is contested or not, it won't be brokered. The candidate with a clear majority of pledged delegates will reach 2383 (and then some) on the first vote. A mere formality whether Sanders concedes or not.

[auntpurl]

1. Good post.

You could almost overlay the 08 maps with the 16 maps and they would align, with a few exceptions. But everyone keeps comparing Hillary 16 to Hillary 08 when the much more apt comparison is Hillary 16 to Obama 08, complete with the mop up run at the end. Although I think she will win California, so that would be a difference.

[highprincipleswork]

2. If you think that Obama didn't win with White Progressives, you are smoking crack! I know, because

I'm one of them, and I worked hard and I fought hard for him.

You want to do without them, good luck to you. Oh, I know, some may very well support Hillary, but a whole lot of them don't. I am feeling ample company on my Facebook page, where all my friends pretty much are Bernie supporters, and there are a lot of friends.

If Hillary is the splendid Progressive that everyone claims she is, if she believes one tenth of what she has been spewing to possibly win the nomination, it should be SO FUCKING EASY TO WELCOME the Sanders supporters in with open arms.

It is my sincere and newfound and ardent belief that this is the first election since the proven death of the Reagan Revolution. How do you know when a customer has truly bought a car? They say so, not you. How do you know the Reagan Revolution is dead? Well, there's Obama's success in 2008, there's Occupy Wall Street, there's the relative success of Bernie's campaign, but the Maraschino cherry on top is that the Republicans have nominated Trump! That is the icing on the cake.

What does it mean. We have to get our heads out of all the policies and procedures we invented to fight "The Reagan Revolution". We need a Progressive Solution (oh, I like how that came up for me, maybe use solution, not revolution). We absolutely, clearly DO NOT NEED TO TACK TO THE RIGHT, which has never worked very well anyway and has the effect of de-motivating our base.

I am a Bernie supporter, but I care most about Progressivism and about the Democratic Party taking care of things including the economic so the average person in a New Deal sort of way. I couldn't give two whits for triangulation or any of that bullshit, and I know that now is not the time for that.

Time to embrace Bernie supporters and fight together. C'mon, give it a try. Would be a whole lot more pleasant and more successful than all the sniping that has been going on around her for months.

[Garrett78]

3. Of course there are Sanders supporters who voted for Obama in '08.

But the fact remains that Clinton is on her way to the nomination largely because of those who supported her opponent in '08. Quite a few DU posters don't seem to get that, as evidenced by their misunderstanding what it means when Clinton loses states that she won in '08. That was the point of my OP.

The pro-Obama/anti-Clinton people don't really make much sense to me, but I don't deny that they exist. Come November, though, most of the folks participating in the Democratic primaries will vote for the Democratic candidate. And some of the "independents" participating in the primaries wouldn't vote for the Democratic candidate no matter who it ends up being.

DU isn't representative of the population at large. Even Noam Chomsky suggests voting for Clinton if you live in a battleground state. You don't get much more anti-establishment than Chomsky.

I'm not a Clinton fan, but I also recognize that the POTUS doesn't create systems. And I recognize that far more people would suffer under a Trump presidency. The POTUS (and his/her Administration) governs within systems. It's up to the masses to alter those systems.

[highprincipleswork]

4. Sorry, I will only guarantee that I will vote for a Progressive candidate. If I see too much of the

usual bullshit, where the only place Democrats can get tough is against some of their own, I'm just not having it.

[jillan]

5. I agree with your theory, Hillary learned from Obama's win in 2008 but what I don't agree with is

party ending up like it did in 2008. The reason being in 08 Obama was the exciting candidate that offered hope for a better future.
So it was easy for people to transition to him.

In this campaign it is Bernie that is bringing the excitement to the party. If he is out of of the race the excitement and hope that many of us feel will be gone. And I say this as a senior citizen, someone that should fit into Hillary's demographic. I really have no desire to vote for her, but I probably will because I am older and get it. But a lot of the people you see at Bernie's rallies are there because of Bernie. They will be the ones that will stay home.
I hope you can agree, other than the fact that Hillary could be the first woman President, she isn't all that inspiring.

[auntpurl]

6. We need women and POC to show up at the polls.

And they will. The Democratic base will show up. Moderates will vote for Hillary. That's it. That's all she needs. There aren't enough white dudes to fill the gap - the Romney problem. Trump can't win.

[Garrett78]

8. I do agree that she doesn't inspire as many people as Obama did.

But that doesn't mean a Clinton Administration wouldn't operate pretty much the same as the Obama Administration has. The personality differences (and "scandal" baggage) aside, I feel the same way about 2016 Clinton as I did about 2008 Obama in terms of what to expect.

And it's worth noting that Clinton has been voted the most admired woman in the world many, many times. She's polarizing for sure (as are most politicians these days), but she's also more popular than some give her credit for being.

There's certainly a valid leftist critique of Clinton (and the Democratic Party as a whole), but let's also acknowledge that much of the Clinton hate comes from misogynistic, right wing reactionaries.

I expect Clinton to win at least as many electoral college votes as Obama did, even if millennials don't turn out as strongly for her as they did for him (not that their turnout was all that great in '08 or '12).

[uponit7771]

7. +1, Sanders is winning the same group Clinton lost the primary with in 08.

[Garrett78]

9. Exactly. And it's not a winning formula. Obviously.

Sanders isn't losing because of some grand conspiracy. He's losing because, given today's demographics, you can't win the Democratic Party nomination (or become POTUS) without having POC and women solidly behind you.

This relates to what I wrote here: http://www.democraticunderground.com/12511906129

[w4rma]

10. Alaska and Washington are very delegate-rich and were landslides for Sanders. (nt)

[Garrett78]

11. Alaska is not delegate-rich.

And exceptions, such as WA, prove the rule. Washington has a caucus and - like Wisconsin - demographics that favor Sanders.

Clinton's lead would be even greater if Democratic primaries were winner-take-all, as many Republican contests are. I'm glad they aren't, as proportional allocation makes much more sense. But my point is that Clinton has, *overall*, done better in the more delegate-rich, diverse states.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

14. Some FORTY SIX STATES have more delegates than Alaska.

[Lizzie Poppet]

12. With at least one huge exception: young voters.

Young voters were a very important component of the 2008 Obama coalition...and Hillary tanks with them (even black ones in many jurisdictions).

[Garrett78]

13. True, and that's the primary reason why the race is somewhat close.

Come November, though, it's safe to say Clinton will win the millennial vote. Maybe millennial turnout won't be as great as it was in 2008 or 2012. But it wasn't all that great even in those years, nor was it much better than it was in 2004.

The pro-Obama/anti-Clinton folks don't make much sense. I think a lot of folks, especially young people, confuse style with substance. In terms of what to expect, I feel the same about 2016 Clinton as I did about 2008 Obama. Pretty "meh," in other words. But, as even Noam Chomsky said, you have to pull the lever for Clinton if you live in a battleground state. A Trump Administration is too horrifying to even think about.

[Arugula Latte]

15. My college-age son talks about how much all his friends hate Hillary.

These are not sexist, rightwing kids -- they were raised in very progressive homes. They hate her because they can smell her phoniness and her complicity with the oligarchy (although they probably wouldn't use that term).

[Garrett78]

16. I wonder how many of them hate Obama, too.