AP -- Clinton needs 92 delegates, Sanders needs 855 to clinch

[ucrdem]

as of 3:41 am:

link: https://interactives.ap.org/2016/delegate-tracker/

...........................
And here's the breakdown:

Needed to clinch: 2,383

HRC:

Pledged: 1,767
Super: 524
Total: 2,291
----------------
Still needed: 92

Bernie:

Pledged: 1,488
Super: 40
Total: 1,528
---------------
Still needed: 855

link: http://www.npr.org/2016/03/02/468641509/elections-2016-democratic-and-republican-delegate-tracker

Take away the superdelegates, and the gap shrinks, but Clinton has always had the lead in both counts.

[merrily]

1. Counting super delegates who are not pledged? Trump will be pleased.

[ucrdem]

4. She's winning with or without them.

And Sanders has never been ahead with or without them. She doesn't need them to win the nom.



p.s. that's not to say that Bernie didn't get pretty far, just that he's never going to get the nomination.

[merrily]

7. Ah, grasshopper, you missed the point of the Trump reference.

[joshcryer]

13. She's 255 shy of having the majority of pledged delegates.

Which she should easily garner from CA and NJ even if she loses by 20 points in each state.

[merrily]

20. Please see Reply 7. Thanks.

[joshcryer]

25. She'll have the majority of delegates either way.

It won't even be controversial.

[merrily]

27. Still irrelevant to my point.

[joshcryer]

30. There was no point.

[merrily]

35. Sorry, but your missing a point does not negate its existence.

[joshcryer]

37. Trump's pleasure level doesn't concern me.

Given that he will be the new McGovern and that will be all he's remembered for.

[merrily]

42. If she's the nominee, we'll see. He's catching up to her in the polls already.

And it ain't 1972 anymore.

[lancer78]

2. I think pledged delegate

majority is around 2,000. Super Delegates can always change their mind. At least Trump actually got real voters to nominate him.

[joshcryer]

14. Majority is 2026.

Which she's highly likely to get. Obama won the nomination in 2008 and he was only ahead by 62 pledged delegates. We've been here before, it's not controversial.

[merrily]

18. Just like Sanders is not Obama, neither is Hillary--and Bill is no Michelle, either.

[joshcryer]

21. What would be funny is if she resent her 2008 superdelegate memo.

Almost verbatim. Only slight changes. Remove the bits about Bush.

http://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2008/05/clintons-closing-argument-to-superdelegates/53314/

[DemocratSinceBirth]

53. Hillary has garnered more votes than Trump/Sanders.

[ThePhilosopher04]

3. This is a lie

[ucrdem]

5. Which?

Do you want to see the breakdowns?

[ThePhilosopher04]

9. She isn't 92 away from going over the top. You know this.

[ucrdem]

23. She's 92 from having what she needs to win the nom

I understand that the superdelegates don't actually vote until the convention, but I don't see her losing any of them before then.

[joshcryer]

26. I don't get this "they don't vote until the convention" thing.

Pledged delegates don't vote until the convention, either, and Sanders can release them to vote for whoever they want, like Clinton did with her delegates and about half voted for Obama.

[ucrdem]

43. Oh that's good because I never heard it either until about a week ago.

Go figure eh.

[lancer78]

39. And no-one saw

Trump getting the GOP nomination. Never say never.

[Bobbie Jo]

60. They're hanging their hopes on

folks being bullied into submission at the convention.

[joshcryer]

6. She'll clench it on June 7th.

But will hold off declaring victory until DC, I suspect. Just to say "Hey, DC, we got you." Might even stage a big rally there in DC. Probably at Verizon Center or Xfinity Center (the two smaller stadiums with a seating capacity under 20k, which she should easily fill being the first woman nominee for President).

[merrily]

10. It ain't over til it's over. And then the nominee, whoever he or she may be, will have Trump.

[ThePhilosopher04]

11. What exactly will she be "clenching" on June 7? Bill might not like that too much.

On second thought, I doubt he gives a flying fuck.

[ucrdem]

19. I think at this point it doesn't matter much if Bernie is in or out.

But he's gotta do it his way and I think she'll make it as easy as possible for him to wrap it up.

[joshcryer]

22. I bet he concedes on June 10th.

DC is going to go so badly for him anyway, might as well be out at that point. Can go back to his Senate office, have a drink or two, and prepare his speech at Clinton's victory rally.

[merrily]

24. Discounting Bernie is dumb.

[ucrdem]

29. No one said it was going to be easy

but it can be done. Hillary did it in 2008 and did pretty well for herself. So it's kind of up to him.

[joshcryer]

34. Well if he does what his "supporters" want him to do...

...and turn the convention into another NV debacle (apparently that was decided by one of his campaign people, insane)? He'll be primaried in 2018 and people will see what a true dirty campaign looks like. So far Clinton and Sanders have been lobbing softballs at one another. It's the fans who have lost their minds.

[ucrdem]

36. Yeah that was kind of the end of the end.

Up until then he could distance himself from the craziness but the press is running with his not-an-apology and that's gonna kill what's left of the good Bernie vibe I suspect.

[lancer78]

40. Seeing the sizes

of her meetings, she better hold it in a Starbucks

[highprincipleswork]

8. Counting superdelegates again, doesn't that get old? How juvenile really.

Get used to us sticking around.

[merrily]

16. She blew a lead of 65 points, many millions of dollars, almost the entire party on her side,

literally all the name recognition in the world, and media treating Sanders as a Don Quixote from day one. And no one is worried that her numbers against Trump, a one man clown car, incredibly dropped to margin of error land, according to yesterday's Today Show? And that's before Trump starts with the "Lolita Express" cracks (which he will hold until he's sure if she will be the official nominee).

Democratic Dudes and Dudettes, the general is the goal, not making sure you rub Bernie's nose in having been an independent for most of his career. (Since he did so, though running as a Dem would have been so much easier, only to avoid being in the pocket of big Dem donors, I see that as plus.)

[ucrdem]

32. But she was never behind in the delegate count.

If she'd lost Iowa it would have been a lot harder but she's managed to keep her head above water and that means winning.

[lancer78]

41. That is incorrect

She was losing 33 PD to 36 Sanders PD after New Hampshire.

[ucrdem]

45. Ah. In that case I stand corrected, thanks nt

[merrily]

44. Did she even tie Iowa, after everything listed in my prior post? If she's the nominee, she will

jeopardize the general AT A MINIMUM, even with shenanigans.

She's a very flawed, establishment candidate with an even more flawed spouse in a nation weary wit the establishment in general and Clinton fatigue in particular.

[ucrdem]

46. AFAIK she won Iowa in a squeaker without any tricks or pranks.

Like that helicopter Bernie hired. In fact she's been running an exceedingly clean campaign. As far as November a lot will come down to perceptions of the Obama administration including the economy and on that score she's home free.

[merrily]

47. Nope, not correct. Even the Des Moines register, which had endorsed her, wrote an editorial

about how badly the Democratic Caucus smelled and called for a review. The head of the Iowa Democratic party peeled out with the contested ballots in his car without appointing delegates. License plates HIllary Clinton 2016. And, as close as it was, she declared victory before it was over and left? Come on. I was born at night, but I wasn't born last night. Neither were you. Shame on you.

http://www.desmoinesregister.com/story/opinion/editorials/caucus/2016/02/03/editorial-something-smells-democratic-party/79777580/

http://www.upi.com/Top_News/US/2016/02/05/Report-Errors-found-in-Democrats-Iowa-caucus-results-delegate-count-under-review/5571454719850/

[ucrdem]

50. Right, the coin flips.

In the end that didn't pan out and neither did any of the rest of it, did it? And that Register editorial is right in line with the kind of too-slick perception management that has given Team Bernie a funny odor so to speak from the beginning, to me anyway. Add the data breach and the other nonsense and his campaign has always seemed not quite cricket.

[merrily]

52. Um, no. It was not only about the coin flips. Stop it. It's disgusting.

[KoKo]

58. Indeed! She did.

[ucrdem]

17. She's short 255 without them.

She's going to clinch it either way when she hits the jackpot in CA and NJ.

[highprincipleswork]

33. Frankly, it's boring to play this game either way. The real questions at hand, because the numbers

do play in her favor, are the following:

1. Can Hillary supporters be gracious victors? Doesn't appear that way, for they don't even appear to want Bernie to keep campaigning, and he is very likely to.
2. Can the Democratic Party make room for all the energy and enthusiasm of the Progressive supporters of Bernie Sanders, as well as his proposed polices, in some form? They should be able to. After all, the point is made her all the time that Hillary is really a Progressive and their policies are not that far apart. Prove it. Prove it by sticking to them and by showing the Sanders supporters that those aren't just campaign promises that will be easily abandoned.
3. Can the Democratic Party run a decent convention, where the Sanders supporters who are roughly half the Democratic voters, feel welcomed, included, listened to, etc. This isn't the Nazi army taking over occupied France, you know. I mean, whether or not Sanders supporters get carried away or not, and I realize they are a fiercely devoted lot, wouldn't it make more sense to marshal their energy for Hillary and the Democratic Party rather than against it. Vichy Democratic Party anybody? I mean the recent scuttling of Robert's Rules of Order at the recent convention in Las Vegas doesn't portend well, and a major adjustment should be made before Philadelphia.
4. Will the Democrats come together around this surefire historical certainty that the nomination of Donald Trump signifies that the Reagan Revolution is dead and that we should be running a full-heartedly Progressive campaign, not a Vichy campaign.

These are the questions that must be answered, and I hope the Clinton campaign and the Democratic Establishment has the maturity and good judgement to pay attention to these facts. Progressive and united, we will win. Divided and fighting for scraps of Progressivism amidst a generally regressive campaign, I believe we will soundly lose.

People who believe strongly, especially in good things, should be supported. If not, there is a tendency to get their message out anyway.

[ucrdem]

38. I think that's all still doable.

Not everyone will come around of course and it's going to take a little effort but I think the chances are pretty good that Philly won't be a big battle royale with Bernie marshaling his troops outside the gates like Julius Caesar crossing the Rubicon.

On the other hand I hope nobody mentions that particular episode to him . . .

[highprincipleswork]

48. Thanks for your sentiments and sense of humor and glad you found this doable.

I hope party elders find thoughts like this equally appealing. For a giant olive branch, that eventually includes us all and our best wishes for a Democratic future that actually helps people in this country, sounds like a very, very, very good thing.

And if it's not offered or not solid or not substantial or not even there, that would be a very, very bad thing.

Thanks. Blessings your way.

[ucrdem]

51. Thanks, I hope so too!

[ucrdem]

15. LOL, I keep hearing that.

But no one posts any better ones.

[joshcryer]

28. Someone colorized the popular hippy one:

https://www.reddit.com/r/hillaryclinton/comments/4jc9bv/a_22yearold_hillary_rodham_in_1969_colorized_by_me/

[ucrdem]

31. LOL

That's classic!

[merrily]

49. Bad judgment then and later.

Is that really her? I've seen that pic many times before, but I don't remember the nose looking like that? I guess I never looked closely.

[joshcryer]

54. She went through a hippy phase.

That style was "in" back then.

[merrily]

55. Um, no. Those trousers were as ugly then as they are now.

[beachbum bob]

56. heck, we are talking facts...and facts conflict with some people's realities

but yes....the math still doesn't work for sanders.....sander's supporters actions are guaranteeing no supper delegate will switch to sanders.....

less than a 100 delegates needed for hillary to secure the nomination.....I am disappointed in the lack of class that sanders is no choosing to follow


the class that hillary showed in 2008 when faced with the same situation is why she is a winner and will have a landslide victory in november

sanders still has so much to learn

[Surya Gayatri]

57. K & R for visibility. Thanks for posting.

Liking those figures!

92 92 92 92 92 92 Hill, Yeeeessssssss!

[workinclasszero]

59. "Clinton needs 92 delegates, Sanders needs 855 to clinch"

Math loves Hillary!

[DCBob]

61. Yep.. Hillary is getting closer and closer to the finish line.