2016 Postmortem
Related: About this forumWill the networks declare Hillary the nominee when the polls close in NJ before the CA polls close?
Some networks and media outlets use the pledged + super delegate count, regardless of whether they should or should not use that method. For those that do, Hillary needs about 90 delegates to secure the nomination. CNN's site says she only needs 88.
There are 193 pledged delegates in Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico and New Jersey. It's possible Hillary will claim at least half of these delegates which would push her above 2,383 in the three hours or so between when the polls close in NJ and CA on June 7. Are those media outlets going to wait until CA finishes voting or will they pounce when the polls close in NJ?
oldandhappy
(6,719 posts)networks have been declaring her for a long time now
firebrand80
(2,760 posts)If they are using PDs + SDs, then declaring her the presumptive nominee would be logically consistent
Garrett78
(10,721 posts)Probably. Just as people refer to Trump as the presumptive nominee.
In the scenario you proposed, I'm sure there will be pundits who point out that she's reached 2383 including superdelegates, while other pundits will point out that the superdelegates can't yet be counted.
There will be a general consensus that the one with a clear majority of pledged delegates will ultimately be nominated. But no network is going to declare anyone the nominee in the same way they declare someone the winner of a particular primary.
workinclasszero
(28,270 posts)So no worries about NJ, Hill's got the nomination on lockdown already!
MFM008
(19,808 posts)The networks waited on KY last night damn near till 2020.
Then she was only the "apparent" winner. It was close but wow.
They have to hold out or no one will watch their talking heads.
larkrake
(1,674 posts)thesquanderer
(11,986 posts)...so as long as there is even a mathematical possibility that Bernie can surpass Hillary in pledged delegates, they won't call the nomination for Hillary. They may say she has apparently gotten there, but they will leave enough wiggle room to leave it uncertain. First, because it would remain a fact that it wouldn't yet be certain; and second, they want people to stay tuned in. If the "drama" is on-going, it's good for their ratings.