538: Hillary exceeded her target # of delegates for both KY and OR. Bernie slipped farther behind.
Though Bernie collected more delegates than Hillary, he needed even more to put him on track to winning the majority of the pledged delegates. Because he didn't meet his target in OR and KY, he needs an even higher percentage of the remaining pledged delegates.
She needs only about a third of all the remaining pledged delegates to win the majority.
http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/election-2016/delegate-targets/democrats/
Methodology
These interactive charts show which candidate is on target to win the Democratic nomination and which one is falling behind. They are based on our estimate of how many delegates Hillary Clinton and Bernie Sanders would need in each primary and caucus to win a simple majority of the 4,051 pledged delegates at the Democratic National Convention.
We reached these estimates by developing benchmarks for each state based on its demographics. In particular, we used exit polls to determine the racial composition of the Democratic electorate in each state, how each state lines up on a liberal-conservative scale, and whether Democratic voters live in rural or conservative areas. Sanders does better in whiter, more liberal and more rural states. Clinton does better in states with more nonwhite voters — especially African-Americans. For more detail about these procedures, see this article.
After we arrived at baseline estimates of candidate support, we adjusted their support proportionally in each state until both candidates were tied nationally. Finally, we multiplied each candidate’s adjusted share of support by the number of pledged delegates available in each state to arrive at delegate targets (unlike Republicans, Democrats award all of their pledged delegates proportionally). Because there is limited data available to model the 99 pledged delegates from six delegations — American Samoa, Democrats Abroad, Guam, Northern Marianas, Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands — we set both Clinton’s and Sanders’s targets in those contests at half of the delegates available.
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Response to msanthrope (Reply #7)
