2016 Postmortem
Related: About this forum"The Hidden Importance Of The Sanders Voter"
link to The Hidden Importance Of The Sanders Voter; excerpt:
Donald Trump has gained on Hillary Clinton in recent national polls after becoming the presumptive GOP nominee this month. But ... her lack of support from Sanders voters is harming her general election numbers.
According to the most recent YouGov poll, 61 percent of Sanders voters have an unfavorable view of Clinton, against just 38 percent with a favorable one. YouGov has been tracking these numbers for several months, and theyve gradually gotten worse for Clinton:
... In the YouGov poll, just 55 percent of Sanders supporters said theyd vote for Clinton over Trump in November. However, only 15 percent said theyd vote for Trump. That leaves 30 percent of Sanders voters who say they are undecided, would vote for a third-party candidate or would sit out the election.... Clinton is beating Sanders by 27 percentage points among self-identified Democrats but losing to Sanders by 31 points among voters who call themselves independents but voted in the Democratic primaries..... If Clinton wins over those voters, shell gain a few percentage points on Trump in national and swing state polls, and the race will potentially look more like it did in March and April, with Clinton having a fairly comfortable lead over Trump. If not, the general election could come down to the wire.

guillaumeb
(42,649 posts)If, for the sake of argument, we assume that HRC is the nominee, will Sanders:
1) Enthusiastically endorse her, or
2) endorse her with qualifications?
If number one, Sanders risks being seen as a phony by some of his followers. If number two, the logical justification would be to prevent a Trump Presidency. But if Sanders can explain his endorsement as a pragmatic thing that might make it acceptable.
And the outcome might also depend on how Sanders can influence the official Democratic platform and positions.
Attorney in Texas
(3,373 posts)of Hillary by Sanders supporters now seems much more substantive. I am not optimistic about this rift being papered over without a substantive course correction (something dramatically progressive arising at the convention, a Warren-type VP pick, or something along these lines to spark a re-evaluation of Hillary).
I think Hillary is assuming that the awfulness of Trump will fix everything, but she's miscalculating this (just like Cruz and Kasich and the #neverTrump movement failed to realize that a candidate dropping out did not mean that that candidate's supporters would flock to the not-Trump candidate). If she wins the nomination without addressing this, I think we are looking at Democrats turning out at mid-term levels while Republicans turn out at presidential election cycle levels - this is fatal to our entire ticket from the top of the ballot to the bottom.
guillaumeb
(42,649 posts)and hope you are incorrect in your second. If, a big word, HRC sees that Sanders has tapped into a significant feeling in the electorate, one would hope that she is intelligent enough to realize that she must adjust her positions to reflect this feeling.
kerry-is-my-prez
(9,552 posts)pmorlan1
(2,096 posts)because she has bad judgement. She can't even get this right. I watched her interview with Cuomo today and she is clueless.
Art_from_Ark
(27,247 posts)Just what we need in a presidential nominee
pmorlan1
(2,096 posts)If you haven't you need to do so. It's really hard to watch because....it's Hillary...but she thinks everything is hunky dory. They can't even get a fair convention put together and they think Bernie voters are going to come running and embrace her. She talked in the video about how important it is to give Bernie supporters a voice....I about fell off the couch. She is either delusional or her campaign is incompetent in not advising her what's going on. is right.
Art_from_Ark
(27,247 posts)I'll try to watch the rest of it after my stomach has recovered.
JPnoodleman
(454 posts)Which is factually incorrect, we can simply not vote Democrat if that is her course of action.
pmorlan1
(2,096 posts)and she couldn't be more wrong. Her lack of good judgement in this campaign speaks volumes. These people are shooting themselves in the foot and don't even have a clue that their doing it despite being told repeatedly that they are. It defies logic.
senz
(11,945 posts)In that case, we might see ...
Attorney in Texas
(3,373 posts)dictate chaos.
senz
(11,945 posts)the Bernie people will keep their cool and make their extremely important points calmly and firmly, knowing they are on the higher plane, which they will be.
Because the media will be watching and people will be tweeting.
Skwmom
(12,685 posts)Fresh_Start
(11,344 posts)independents are pragmatic
And pragmatic means not Trump
Barack_America
(28,876 posts)Independents are angry, dissatisfied voters. And this year, their anger is directed at "establishment" candidates, regardless of party.
Hillary will never win them.
Fresh_Start
(11,344 posts)some independents will be bernie or busters
other independents will be pro Trump
and other independents will be pro Clinton
and other independents will be anyone but Trump
and other independents will be anyone but Clinton
and if bernie were the nominee, there would be independents who would be anyone but Sanders.
Independents are not one block who votes together.
And they never have been.
Barack_America
(28,876 posts)You'll see in November.
Fresh_Start
(11,344 posts)none,
never going to happen
JRLeft
(7,010 posts)people hate her, but despise Trump. Voting for the lesser of 2 evils.
Fresh_Start
(11,344 posts)and choose what they perceive to be the lesser of two evils
JRLeft
(7,010 posts)Trump are shitty choices.
JPnoodleman
(454 posts)Its a great lie that they are all centrists sitting in some valley between two camps.
Trump actually does well with disaffected voters as an example. A wake up call if you will.
Fresh_Start
(11,344 posts)the vast majority are in partisans who don't want to be assigned to a party even though they vote the same as the respective party they are aligned with.
A minority who actually swing vote.
Attorney in Texas
(3,373 posts)Skwmom
(12,685 posts)Attorney in Texas
(3,373 posts)uponit7771
(92,373 posts)senz
(11,945 posts)and I am sure he knows it. He knows what she is.
msongs
(70,581 posts)Aerows
(39,961 posts)I'll say what I always said I will:
[font size=4 color=maroon] We told you so! [/font]
Aerows
(39,961 posts)up front and plain that they neither need Bernie Sanders voters or want us.
That is going to be the dead ox and the wagon it was carrying dragging her race through the meat and bones GE.
Half of the Democratic constituency is neither motivated by her, or sure that she isn't corrupt.
840high
(17,196 posts)Vote2016
(1,198 posts)Art_from_Ark
(27,247 posts)"Iceberg? Screw the iceberg! Full speed ahead!"
uponit7771
(92,373 posts)840high
(17,196 posts)a screen shot of your transparency page while you're at it.
Vote2016
(1,198 posts)840high
(17,196 posts)senz
(11,945 posts)I've seen them doing it to others. They are so amazingly hateful.
Don't let their ugliness bother you.
This bully will not make me change my vote.
senz
(11,945 posts)any comment they think they can use to get other DUers banned.
It is in keeping with months and months of despicable behavior revealing the ugliest of motivations, the lowest of character. I feel sorry for the perps, having to be what they are.
Who knows, maybe these ugly, hateful actions will end up affecting your precious candidate and you will have no one but yourselves to blame.
merrily
(45,251 posts)senz
(11,945 posts)well-written and true with some excellent advice for Bernistas. One little caveat -- the Berniebutter phenomenon couldn't go back to 2014 because he didn't exist for Hill supporters until after he announced, which was mid-spring 2015.
I just loathe the games they play, their dishonesty. They constantly shock me. No wonder they support whom they do.
I'm so glad to be with the good peeps
merrily
(45,251 posts)For one thing, there was something of a draft Bernie movement in 2012, which was also right about the time talking heads began saying Hillary was inevitable. So I am sure he was on the list of potential threats to a Hillary candidacy from then Besides, any Democrat thinking of entering a primary has to look to his or her left. The center and the right of the Party sure ain't going to defeat a center right candidate or even a DINO. This is one of the reasons why Democrats discredit liberals every chance they get.
Anyway, there was the mild 2012 draft movement. Then there was another "Tell Bernie Sanders you want him to run in 2016 online petition. Then Bernie himself announced he was exploring his options. that was over a year before he made his April 30, 2015 announcement. Dissing of Bernie by the usual suspects was well underway in 2014. My first recollection of recognizing Bernie Butter for what it was occurred, I think around the fall or winter of 2014.
senz
(11,945 posts)I do like your essay very much.
merrily
(45,251 posts)amborin
(16,631 posts)oldandhappy
(6,719 posts)Polls will be different after the conventions. I know the clinton folk have wanted the election over and the inauguration scheduled since last March. Pant Pant, we will get there one day at a time.
Warren DeMontague
(80,708 posts)Maybe the idea is that they'll be so horrified at Melania Trump's semi-nude photo shoot from a couple decades ago, they'll outrageeeeeeee themselves right into Hillary's corner.
It seems a bit.... delusional, frankly. Whether or not Hillary has spent decades praying with "The Family", the religious right is not going to switch over to her side.
Vote2016
(1,198 posts)parties beat expectations.
ThePhilosopher04
(1,732 posts)AgerolanAmerican
(1,000 posts)and shoot up even faster with the debacle in NY
confirms my thesis: "It's the election fraud, stupid!"