2016 Postmortem
Related: About this forumHillary, To California: Your Votes Don't Matter
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/seth-abramson/clinton-to-californians-y_b_10053848.htmlClinton to Californians: Your Votes Will Not Affect the Democratic Primary Whatsoever
On Thursday, Chris Cuomo had the temerity to use conditional language in speaking of Hillary Clintons chances of becoming the Democratic nominee for President.
It didnt go over well.
The relevant portion of the transcript is below:
{at 10:40 in the video}
CUOMO (CNN): So you get into the general election, if youre the nominee for your party, and
CLINTON: I will be the nominee for my party, Chris. That is already done, in effect. There is no way that I wont be.
CUOMO: Theres a Senator from Vermont who has a different take on that
CLINTON: Well
CUOMO: He says hes going to fight to the end
CLINTON: Yeah, its strange.
Its hard to take Clintons first comment as anything but a statement that nothing California could possibly do in its primary could change the outcome of the Democratic race even though its now widely accepted that Clinton cant win the primary with pledged delegates alone. This means that the Democratic nomination will be decided by super-delegates, who dont vote for more than two months at the Democratic National Convention, to be held in Philadelphia on July 25th. As the DNC has repeatedly advised the media, those super-delegates can and often do change their minds and are free to do so up until they actually vote this summer.
CNN analyst Carl Bernstein noted several times Wednesday night that between mid-May and late July countless things could happen that would cause super-delegates to move toward Sanders en masse.
KingFlorez
(12,689 posts)They will put Clinton over the top for the amount of delegates needed to officially clinch the nomination.
morningfog
(18,115 posts)Renew Deal
(81,855 posts)And Washington DC goes last.
I know you're going to tell me supers don't count, but watch what happens when she hits 2383.
morningfog
(18,115 posts)I'm parsing it now.
By my estimate, she'll need about 26% of the CA vote to secure 2,026. She'll get it it she won't clinch until then. It's not clear to me when on June 7 she will be declared the presumptive nominee. It seems like as soon as the polls close in CA would be the logical time to do it.
LonePirate
(13,417 posts)She needs roughly 90 delegates to hit 2383. She will earn 30-40 between VI and PR. NJ will grant her at least 60. It's game over at that point. The results from CA will only give her a majority of PDs thus ending the illusion that the SDs might not support her.
k8conant
(3,030 posts)OilemFirchen
(7,143 posts)And Bernie needs 889.
#MathDerp
Trenzalore
(2,331 posts)As a 42-21 football game.
Sanders might kick a field goal in the last minute to make it 42-24.
Actor
(626 posts)anotherproletariat
(1,446 posts)It's not Hillary's fault. It's the fault of our own state government who decided when to hold our primary.
840high
(17,196 posts)One Black Sheep
(458 posts)For instance, what if some huge brewing scandal blows up in Hillary's face, and she is forced to withdraw her candidacy, that is not so far out of the question either when you see and hear rumors of these things in alternate media.
With Hillary, we don't know what kind of new front page grabbing scandal might yet pop up, and it could be one that dooms her candidacy. Better to find out sooner than later, so that Bernie can come in and save the day as an alternative.
It is always best to have a reserve, just like in sports, just in case something happens to one of the players.
Fumesucker
(45,851 posts)ucrdem
(15,512 posts)And she's right.
reformist2
(9,841 posts)Hillary couldn't bear to hear that she "might" be the nominee. She had to insist that she "will" be the nominee. When they say pride goes before a fall, this is what they're talking about.
k8conant
(3,030 posts)pride goes before destruction and a haughty spirit before a fall.
KeepItReal
(7,769 posts)SFnomad
(3,473 posts)because Secretary Clinton does have an insurmountable lead in the delegate count.
But that doesn't mean that the CA vote doesn't matter. There are Congressional primary races, state and local primary races that all matter. And depending on your location, there are probably proposition votes that matter too ..... all of those other votes matter.
litlbilly
(2,227 posts)gets him the delegate lead. then the supers will feel good about supporting him.
Demsrule86
(68,543 posts)And he won't win by that ...he may not even win the way he is acting.
leftynyc
(26,060 posts)where he hasn't led in even one poll by 50 points? And then the supers are going to give the loser of the pledged delegate race the nomination? Can I have some of what you're taking?
ContinentalOp
(5,356 posts)Within my lifetime, the CA primary has always been late and usually doesn't matter. And in the GE CA always goes blue. We're also used to being proportionally underrepresented in congress and in the electoral college compared to small Bernie states. And yet they're the ones who whine about disenfranchisement. Boo hoo. Clinton will win CA easily.
amborin
(16,631 posts)from the Clinton machine
Brother Buzz
(36,416 posts)But the experiment was a mixed bag so they changed it back to June to consolidate it with the state primary races to save money.
QC
(26,371 posts)TomCADem
(17,387 posts)nt
Nye Bevan
(25,406 posts)Yes, the games will be played, but they don't really matter.
pinskinny
(82 posts)SFnomad
(3,473 posts)Oregon is more than 75% non-Hispanic white and California is less than 40%.
postatomic
(1,771 posts)Sanders supporters are being played by the Digital Media. You do know that we are all digital consumers.
I know it pisses you off. I know you want to do whatever it is you do when you're really pissed off.
It's fucking over. End of Story. Hillary can't hire people fast enough right now. You can play digital whack-a-mole all you want. I'm going to do everything I can to keep Clump out of the White House. And don't hit me with that other BS line about Sanders doing better than Trump. Sanders couldn't raise a tenth of the money he'd need to run a General Election.
The General is completely different than a Primary. It's winner take all. (pssst.... that's why so many Hillary Supporters keep bringing up the total electorate counts.)
Art_from_Ark
(27,247 posts)who are being conned into believing that someone who uses an unauthorized and unsecure private server and Blackberry for government business, then deletes 30,000+ e-mails, and is subsequently being investigated by the FBI, is trustworthy. Or that someone who takes to the Senate floor to shill for a war being pushed by the likes of Bush and Cheney, who had laughed about the horrible death of a nation's leader, and about the prospects for yet another war, who gets foreign policy advice from Henry Kissinger and Robert Kagan, and who has no problem with cluster bombs, is somehow a champion of women and children. Or that someone who says that we shouldn't expect much, if anything, from her administration, is a "progressive who gets things done". Or that someone who has raked in millions by giving secretive speeches to bankers is not going to be beholden to their banks. Or that someone who has never known financial hardship, and who ropes herself off from people who have, is somehow going to be a champion of those people. Or that someone who pals around with Republicans is somehow going to start kicking their butts once she gets into the White House.
amborin
(16,631 posts)postatomic
(1,771 posts)You sort of kind of proved my point with your post.
That Guy 888
(1,214 posts)postatomic
(1,771 posts)That Guy 888
(1,214 posts)I imagine you won't understand this post either Debbie Wasserman Schultz scheduled debates according to what Clinton wanted. Clinton has total control over the nowhere-near-neutral DNC head. All DNC disputes are resolved in Clintons favor. Clinton currently is getting a proportion of convention seats on key committees far in excess of her "victories".
Hillary Clinton Seizes The Upper Hand Before Voting Starts With Super Delegate Pledges
In Friday, while Hillary Clinton was addressing the Democratic National Committee in Minneapolis, Minnesota, senior campaign officials announced that Clinton had already received pledges of support from at least 440 of the partys estimated 713 super delegates. That total includes 130 superdelegates who have publicly endorsed Clinton, as well as an additional 310 who have made private commitments to support Hillary.
Superdelegates are elected officials and party leaders who are given special voting delegate status at the national convention separate from the delegates who are chosen by Democratic primary voters and caucus attendees. While they make up just over 15 percent of the total delegates at the Democratic convention, they can be decisive in a close nomination contest.
To become the partys nominee, a Democrat will need to secure a majority of the approximately 4,491 delegates at stake in 2016. If the Clinton campaigns count is accurate she has secured the support of over 60 percent of the superdelegates, which puts her 1/5th of the way to locking down the 2,246 delegates she would need to win a majority at next years convention.
Delegates who have pledged their support this early are under no obligation to honor their pledge. However, the high number of superdelegates planning to back Clinton demonstrates her enduring popularity with party leaders and current elected officials. Barring a campaign collapse, it would be unlikely for many pledged superdelegates to defect away from supporting her.
http://www.politicususa.com/2015/08/29/hillary-clinton-moves-lock-nomination-voting-starts-super-delegate-pledges.html
This "primary" was supposed to be over after Iowa and New Hampshire - Super Tuesday at the latest. All of this decided by the DNC before one vote was cast, before anyone else had announced they would run.
postatomic
(1,771 posts)But I didn't want to make the wrong conclusion.
I remember when Hillary first started getting 538 Endorsement numbers and everyone who supported her opponent said endorsements were no big deal. You continued this narrative until someone apparently had an Epiphany and realized the importance of these endorsements. Of course now these endorsements were mostly people that had become super-delegates. Oops.
Senator Sanders had every opportunity that Hillary had. He chose not to. He has still done nothing for the DNC or members of the Democratic Party. Instead of working within the DNC guidelines, which Hillary has, he as decided to declare that the DNC was working against him. To make the DNC the really "enemy" here.
And now you just eat this plate of BS, usually asking for seconds.
No one ever expects the Hate Squad.
That Guy 888
(1,214 posts)Although it would have been nice if the members of those organizations had been asked.
What I'm talking about is the Democratic Party deciding for us voters that Clinton would be the nominee before the primary started. Before any votes were cast.
I have no idea what you are talking about.
Are you referring to my post or yours?
postatomic
(1,771 posts)Which can be viewed here: (scroll down for a historical perspective - Hillary has been killin' it)
http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-endorsement-primary/
Is the Democratic Party contrary to the Voters? Yes, there were a number of Democrats that strongly backed Hillary before she officially announced. Myself included. While she was dodging the question she was spending a lot of time with people that she trusted. Discussing the process and getting help from other Democrats.
Do you know how many people decided that Bernie should run as President? Less than 80. Ya' see, we can play this stupid game for a long time.
BS= Burnt Salmon
Ah, the Hate Squad. No one ever expects the Hate Squad.
That Guy 888
(1,214 posts)It's about whether the people should be allowed to vote in a fair election, or if a small group of party insiders and money bundlers pick our nominee.
BS= Burnt Salmon
Ah, the Hate Squad. No one ever expects the Hate Squad.
Stupid game? No, it's just clinton supporters who view this election as a game.
BS= Burnt Salmon - No idea what that means. Is it some sort of clinton party unity message?
Still doesn't make any sense. Are you "the Hate Squad"? Is that code for Correct the Record?
SidDithers
(44,228 posts)Sid
msongs
(67,394 posts)frustrated_lefty
(2,774 posts)TomJulie
(98 posts)But it's over & Bern should hang it up. Hillary won fair and square. Time to unite behind Hillary and the big battle against Trump. It's gonna be tough road for all of us.
Art_from_Ark
(27,247 posts)Hillary has NOT won. She will NOT have enough pledged delegates before the convention. And she is the most tainted democratic candidate in my lifetime, with the possible exception of George Wallace.
hack89
(39,171 posts)That certainly is the implication of your comment.
Maedhros
(10,007 posts)/ignore.
Starry Messenger
(32,342 posts)Between this week and last Monday, when they were mailed out, I got six calls phone-banking for Hillary.
Both campaigns are fighting for votes, as they should be.
HughLefty1
(231 posts)Alot of us changed our registration from the independent party to D to vote for Sanders in CA. It's very disingenuous to say our votes don't matter regardless of the delegate counts. You weren't saying that 8 years ago Secretary Clinton when you won CA despite Obama having the huge delegate lead.
MineralMan
(146,286 posts)Someone is putting words in her mouth. California, and the other June 7 states will vote, as planned. Their votes will determine how their pledged delegates will be allocated, just as happened in all of the other states.
She's campaigning in California. She's campaigning in New Jersey and New Mexico, too. She'll win New Jersey without a doubt. Current polling says she'll win California, too.
Bottom line is that she and Bernie will each earn pledged delegates on June 7. Just like happened in all of those other states.
On June 8, we'll be able to see how many pledged delegates will be allocated to each candidate. What we'll almost certainly see is that Hillary Clinton will then have a majority of pledged delegates. A majority of pledged delegates to take to the Democratic Convention in July.
At that convention, when the first ballot comes up, she'll get that majority of pledged delegates' votes. She'll also get votes from super delegates there at the convention. Their votes will be announced, state-by-state, at the same time the pledged delegate's votes are announced by the chair of each of those states' delegations.
At some point, the number of votes Hillary has will exceed the majority of the total number of delegates. It will happen before all of the states have announced their votes, most likely, although California may just wait until the very end to announce its vote. They can do that if they want. Otherwise, the states vote in alphabetical order.
I'll be watching. I'll be listening to each state announce its votes and watching the tally on the screen. Soon enough, I'll know that Hillary has won the nomination.
Won't you all join me?
Yurovsky
(2,064 posts)No thanks...
MineralMan
(146,286 posts)General Election campaign and the eventual defeat of Donald Trump. That's what. It's something to celebrate.
Yurovsky
(2,064 posts)and yes, Trump is a racist POS that shouldn't be rewarded with the keys to 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue. I just can't celebrate winning if it meant getting in bed with the Wall Street & corporate fat cats in order to finance said victory.
Enjoy your party though... I guess someone else can have my slice of cake and party balloon.
seabeyond
(110,159 posts)Sanders and say it does matter? God, nothing satisfies you all. If she did say the race was in play, you all owuld be yelling. .... Liar.
Tarc
(10,476 posts)Sometimes elections are wrapped up before they get to the final state or states in the schedule, it's a fact of life.
California was a Super Tuesday state in 2008. Why did they shift back to a usually-irrelevant June date?
AtomicKitten
(46,585 posts)Poll workers are already being taught to give NPP voters a provisional ballot even though they have the right to ask for a Democratic (and Republican) Party ballot.
AzDar
(14,023 posts)tritsofme
(17,376 posts)It was entirely their choice to make their voters irrelevant to the process.
Gomez163
(2,039 posts)dubyadiprecession
(5,706 posts)Bernie's problem is: he's letting the worst of his supporters ruin his campaign by posting lies like this.
Response to amborin (Original post)
rjsquirrel This message was self-deleted by its author.
arcane1
(38,613 posts)chervilant
(8,267 posts)wishes she could take back this tone-deaf, arrogant assertion. Seems to have motivated even more Sanders supporters to pledge to never vote for her.
INdemo
(6,994 posts)it just causes more Democratic voters to "hate Hillary " and bring on the possibility that if Bernie Sanders doesn't win the nomination then Jill Stein will get their vote and not to mention those that will actually vote for Trump.
DWS, Hillary/Bill/ and the whole damn Clinton campaign staff are pretty naive about these facts.
oldandhappy
(6,719 posts)CA is free to vote as it chooses!!
Algernon Moncrieff
(5,790 posts)The primary system is a train wreck. Two small, very unrepresentative states get an inordinate amount of power over the process. By the time California comes around in most elections, it's basically over.
We need a national primary in which all states vote at the same time.