2016 Postmortem
Related: About this forumHEADS UP!! Big Networks CANCEL Exit Polls in all the remaining states.
I guess that includes CA.
Gee, I wonder why they would do a thing like that.
https://electionfraud2016.wordpress.com/2016/05/17/big-networks-cancel-exit-polls-in-remaining-primaries/
Recursion
(56,582 posts)I'm sure you have a "better" explanation though
LenaBaby61
(6,974 posts)Plausible.
Response to LenaBaby61 (Reply #4)
artislife This message was self-deleted by its author.
mhatrw
(10,786 posts)Even conceding your point, aren't demographic breakdowns of who voted for whom newsworthy?
Haven't such demographic exit poll results been prominently reported in every state race to date?
bkkyosemite
(5,792 posts)BootinUp
(47,144 posts)More fucking CT garbage.
Cali_Democrat
(30,439 posts)Everything is a conspiracy.
LonePirate
(13,419 posts)AgerolanAmerican
(1,000 posts)such as the Hillary Victory Fund...
it's only natural that people will have their antennae up for additional conspiracies.
Conspiracies do actually happen, you know.
floppyboo
(2,461 posts)Shouldn't the campaigns be doing their own exit polls?
LuvLoogie
(7,001 posts)their own voter registration, too.
floppyboo
(2,461 posts)And ya, campaigns should go out and register voters. Make sure they are registered right and the information is correctly annotated by the 'overseer' / objective federally sanctioned 'group'. You should go and make sure your neighbour is registered. That's a civic duty. So, what? Maybe you were being sarcastic. Humor is sometimes lost on me.
floppyboo
(2,461 posts)I'd be fighting for electoral reform. If tax payer are paying for the primaries in their state, then every citizen should be able to participate.
If you like the system the way it is, it would seem it is YOU, not me, that would sanction campaigns being soley responsible for their private club membership, and should pay for all the costs of their popularity contests - full stop. Put your money where your mouthpiece is.
Now, if that were to happen, you would quickly see the end of the 2 party system.
LiberalFighter
(50,912 posts)all of the services provided through taxes do not benefit citizens all the time. Parents with children out of school or never had kids and many young adults pay taxes that allow children from other families to attend school. Or maybe public swimming pools or fireworks displays for the 4th of July that benefit just a few. Public libraries and many other services that all do not use.
It may be true that not everyone doesn't vote in the primaries but they don't in the general either. Yet taxes are paid by many taxpayers that don't vote at all. Just as voters have a choice in the general election between various candidates. Taxpayers have choices in whether they will vote in the primary which also includes identifying themselves with a political party or not at all.
By conducting primary elections it also makes it easier for minor parties to be included in the election process. And make them more viable. Minor parties would have fewer options and it would be more difficult to recruit candidates than it is now.
LuvLoogie
(7,001 posts)Enough spare people across the remaining states and territories to do exit polling. Plus the tendency toward pumping up your own campaign's numbers would likely ensue.
I think campaigns do their own polling on election day anyway as part of their get out the vote regime.
LiberalFighter
(50,912 posts)They have more important tasks to work on such as GOTV and rides.
2banon
(7,321 posts)own exit polls, by checking off how many voters on the precinct roster turned out.
LiberalFighter
(50,912 posts)That is identifying who has voted so they don't call them to GOTV. The campaigns do phone banks to determine their supporters and use that data to create their targeted voters for the GOTV. We do it every election. In our county we don't even retrieve that data from the voting locations anymore. It is sent to us electronically.
The definition of an exit poll is asking voters after they have voted how they voted.
Voter turnout by itself from a precinct in a primary won't help determine who will win.
bettyellen
(47,209 posts)because you're going to call those supporters who have not shown up yet before the polls close. We do that in every election that matters. Hand over the lists of supporters- with names of who voted checked off.
LiberalFighter
(50,912 posts)We don't need poll watchers to gather the data anymore. Which requires time and bodies. Now we get it electronically from the election board within minutes. Instead of the time it takes to go to each voting location in the areas assigned and return it back to hdqtrs.
TexasTowelie
(112,161 posts)then I don't feel obligated to help them register. Considering that they also support Trump it is a matter of weighing my civic duty with my best interests. If someone asks for my help, then I'll be the first in line to assist them; however, I'm not going to go out of the way to perform an action that may inevitably hurt me.
I am helping a friend of my brother file for unemployment and show him the ropes since I'm familiar with the requirements and computer system. The minute I finished helping him, the libertarian fool had the gall to insult me because he knows that I'm liberal (and this was the third time that occurred). I don't take kindly to having people spit in my face which is what my brother's friend has done.
brush
(53,776 posts)I've done it many times.
Eric J in MN
(35,619 posts)It's expensive and campaigns would rather spend money in other ways.
LiberalFighter
(50,912 posts)I have never known of any campaign that does exit polls. They have already identify their target voters and spend time doing GOTV by coordinating phone banking with their lists of voters that have not voted.
YouDig
(2,280 posts)Snarkoleptic
(5,997 posts)Bought and paid for. Now hush up, step aside and be a good little consumer and labor unit.
PufPuf23
(8,774 posts)We know for at least the last 16 years that exit polls have failed to be predictive within their margin of error.
We also know that exit polls in the USA are always biased in one direction, that of the winner and establishment / empire favored candidate that most meets the needs of the owners of the media and election apparatus.
We also know based upon the last 16 years that USA universities are unable to educate statisticians capable of designing and operating predictive exit polls..
Odd that.
So why bother?
Maybe citizen run exit polls in the future?
FourScore
(9,704 posts)They are still a great indicator of election fraud.
PufPuf23
(8,774 posts)pdsimdars
(6,007 posts)would win. It wasn't until those "electronic" voting machines came out that somehow those exit polls didn't match the reported vote. Hmmmm. Is it more likely that the exit polls suddenly stopped working or that the voting was being "fixed"?
PufPuf23
(8,774 posts)reasons you typed.
Thought that would be clear from content of my post.
Exit polls should work and that they don't is evidence of shenanigans.
Thanks.
nadinbrzezinski
(154,021 posts)Notice it is good for USAID... but not for the United States.
Yup, where is that coke and Torta?
floppyboo
(2,461 posts)Nadine - you work in the industry.
Like, say, a big network published exit polls that were 10 points out from 'actual' results, would someone who didn't want to hear that news be able to sue the network for some kind of libel? Would they get scared away from reporting?
nadinbrzezinski
(154,021 posts)but the industry pays pollsters to do this. They used to do it with the news consortium until 2000... damn pollsters gave FL to Gore... and the rest is history. In 2004 they hired the Mitofsky group, I guess they thought they could control a group from Mexico better, I don't know. Damn pollsters, releasing the info about Cuyahooga, revealing the issues.
I am almost willing to bet there will be no exit polls in November. And that is that. But yes, the polls when well done can indicate fraud, Why this year I do not consider these primaries legitimate.
floppyboo
(2,461 posts)nadinbrzezinski
(154,021 posts)and he is partly correct, it's cyclical
Rex
(65,616 posts)Of course we won't allow the UN in to monitor our elections either.
nadinbrzezinski
(154,021 posts)jillan
(39,451 posts)going on overseas.
Got it.
NWCorona
(8,541 posts)nadinbrzezinski
(154,021 posts)and trains people
http://www.eods.eu/library/DI.Vote%20Count%20Verification.pdf
NWCorona
(8,541 posts)nadinbrzezinski
(154,021 posts)how many of the US Media covers this crap? I need to read much more into it to write a credible story... but seriously, when you do propaganda, why explain this to people? US Media treats US News consumers like children. The same news media, yes CNN, can do a very good job when dealing with foreign markets. But those consumers are not going to allow themselves to be treated like mere children. They know better
Godhumor
(6,437 posts)Here's the summary conclusion:
Conclusion: Lessons Learned About Exit
Polls
Exit polls can provide useful information about voter
motivations and behavior in a given society and can begin
to establish trends and identify correlations between votes
and other variables such as gender, ethnicity, religion, or
socioeconomic status. In general, however, exit polling and
other forms of survey research are not the best way to de-
tect or deter election-related fraud or forecast election re-
sults in postconflict or transitional countries. Exit polls
have been unreliable in the US even though they have been
used for years. Although benefiting from sample-based ri-
gor, exit polling raises a number of methodological con-
cerns, including lack of historical election data, difficulty
calculating margins of error, and selection bias. Even more
important, exit polls are inappropriate whenever there is a
climate of intimidation. Thus, exit polling and other forms
of survey research are not the best way to detect or deter
election-related fraud or forecast election results in post-conflict or transitional countries.
nadinbrzezinski
(154,021 posts)and used to determine policy. Just ask the Ukraine.
http://www.kiis.com.ua/materials/articles/Exit%20Polling%20in%20an%20Emergent%20Democracy%20The%20Complex%20Case%20of%20Ukraine.pdf
Godhumor
(6,437 posts)But thank you for the wonderful link that goes into massive detail about why exit polls are a demographic tool instead of a predictive tool.
For some reason, people turn a blind eye to my expertise in the area, so we'll see if a new OP using the link you provided has any better luck in tamping down the conspiracy theories around exit polls.
You've done good here in helping to dispel that particular myth, whether that was the intention or not. Thanks!
brooklynite
(94,527 posts)Godhumor
(6,437 posts)The one thing I've discovered this cycle is so many people are now experts in numbers and polling (and how polling works). It is remarkable how quickly people have acquired this knowledge.
msongs
(67,405 posts)Godhumor
(6,437 posts)Professionally, it makes me weep.
LonePirate
(13,419 posts)We pretty much know everything these polls will tell us and there is nothing to predict as there is only one contest after June 7 (DC). Not only that but the Dem race will be called by every network as soon as the NJ polls close. The results for CA are irrelevant this year. The budget conscious media is simply not going to go to the expense as there is nothing to be gained from running exit polls.
Agnosticsherbet
(11,619 posts)Any one will do.
NBC, CBS, ABC, CNN, FOX, MSNBC?
moriah
(8,311 posts)barrow-wight
(744 posts)[cue x-files theme music]
ok, ok. let me peel off my tinfoil hat for a moment.
If there's anything the Bernie fans are correct about, it's that media is corporate. They're looking at the bottom line and I don't imagine they want to waste money on a person who now has to reach over 67% of all remaining pledged delegates just to be even with Hillary in pledged delegates. Given his pitiful performance in Kentucky and his lackluster one-digit win in Oregon, I'm sure the media has all but written him off and even Bernie supporting pundits like Sally Kohn are jumping ship. Maybe pundits like Sally believe the tales of violence and vitriol in Vegas, or maybe they're just using that as an excuse to get off the boat before it sinks.
Either way, Bernie has almost no chance to gain 67% of the remaining delegates and, even if he did, the Supers won't switch, not after all the bullying, intimidation, threats of violence, and vulgarity that you can see on all the Supers delegate social media pages.
Why he is continuing this charade I'm sure many of us would like to know, but since so many of his fans believe he's winning, maybe he does too. I'm shocked that Senator Sanders looks at his current predicament and sees a path to the nomination. I think he has a better chance of finding the holy grail.
Ed Suspicious
(8,879 posts)Thanks.
barrow-wight
(744 posts)You are battering Hillary on one side knowing that Trump is only battering her on the other and not your candidate, which stands to weaken her. What that says to me is that you would rather have neither of them if you can't have Bernie and that you're perfectly happy to have Trump in the White House. It is deeply concerning.
bjo59
(1,166 posts)What is creeping me out is how totally overt this all is. Quite disturbing if one thinks about it for a minute or two.
The Second Stone
(2,900 posts)the exit polls are not coming out one way or the other. Either way, it's a conspiracy!
This too is a conspiracy to rob the Broletariat of grist for the grist for the CT.
ThePhilosopher04
(1,732 posts)workinclasszero
(28,270 posts)Because.....
Hillary....won the primary!
Do you get it now?
beachbumbob
(9,263 posts)Sanders has zero chance and his supporter actions gurantee no super delegates will switch....game over in every reality...
NCTraveler
(30,481 posts)And the nominee has been chosen. No one it tuning in to see who the states are being called for. They can wait the additional ten minutes and go off actual counts.
They also don't want to continue reporting on the crossover votes for Sanders. It kills there narrative.
sufrommich
(22,871 posts)not finding any news on this.
MrMickeysMom
(20,453 posts)Can't keep the big liar from winning now, plus, it's the math. It's not who votes, but who COUNTS them.
This won't surprise anyone if it's Trump against her, with or without an indictment, she's gonna loose by 10 points... at least. Besides her lying, she voted for the fucking war, and when the Monica Lewinsky thing came up, she seized on that to get the sympathy vote.
It's such a bullshit move. In particular, if they are SO confident at this point.
On edit:
The DEMOCRATIC PARTY'S Super-Delegates, who previously did not exist, should be created to curb the people the party represents, should the people's numbers become too big to push their ideas to those who represent them!
Gothmog
(145,176 posts)Exit polls are expensive and are of limited use or help. The national media knows that the Democratic Party nominee will be Clinton and these polls are not worth it. In addition, California is a very expensive state to do exit polls in because of the size
elehhhhna
(32,076 posts)So why don't they just tell us who the president will be and we can save a lot of money and time
silvershadow
(10,336 posts)Codeine
(25,586 posts)The nominees are known.
DCBob
(24,689 posts)Its over.. its been over. Time to move on to the general.
Dem2
(8,168 posts)They haven't been really helpful at all
AzDar
(14,023 posts)Wish Jimmy Carter or the UN would offer to pay for exit polls.
Todays_Illusion
(1,209 posts)instead to support election fraud, along with the spin and cover story they have traditionally offered.
Rex
(65,616 posts)I am surprised they care at this point, we gave up our rights in 2000 and never got them back. The M$M is more then happy to pick our next POTUS for us!
Lizzie Poppet
(10,164 posts)Gee, I wonder what prompted this decision...?
Waiting For Everyman
(9,385 posts)What a weak, corrupt candidate.
cui bono
(19,926 posts)It's long past time. They don't even try to hide it anymore.
.