VOX says Hillary needs more than just the Bernie supporters.... by Matthew Yglesias

[kentuck]

Last edited Fri May 20, 2016, 01:37 PM - Edit history (1)

http://www.vox.com/2016/5/20/11713776/clinton-appeal-bernie-voters?utm_medium=social&utm_content=ezraklein&utm_source=facebook

<snip>
Democrats are currently panicking over whether Hillary Clinton will be able to reach out and appeal to Bernie Sanders's supporters in the general election or whether Sanders will be "willing to harm" Clinton's prospects in order to advance his own agenda.

History suggests there's probably no need to worry about this. Candidates always fight hard until they stop fighting — look at what Clinton herself was doing in mid-May 2008 — and when Sanders does stop fighting he'll have strong incentives to do everything possible to get Democrats to vote and capture the Senate.

The real problem for Clinton is that capturing the votes of people who bother to become passionately invested in a presidential primary campaign is actually an incredibly low bar. She probably can't get the vote of literally every single person who cast a ballot for Sanders this primary season, and even if she could, that wouldn't be nearly enough people. To win, she needs to mobilize not just Sanders's supporters but the much larger universe of people with left-of-center views who didn't vote in the primaries at all.

...more

[kentuck]

1. more from link:

<snip>
Consider this. Back in 2008, Barack Obama got 17,584,692 votes, and Clinton lost despite winning about 260,000 more votes than he did. It was a hard-fought campaign, and people worried about party unity.

But come November, Obama didn't just get the 35 million or so votes that he and Clinton combined for in the primaries. He got 69.5 million votes — equivalent to about double the total number of people who voted in the primary.

The Clinton-Sanders race isn't nearly that close, but it's also been an even lower-turnout affair. Sanders has only about 10 million votes, and Clinton has about 13 million. Both of those numbers will go up once California and New Jersey vote, but they're not going to equal the levels we saw in 2008.

General election winners need way more votes than the combined Clinton-Sanders total. Obama got 66 million votes in 2012, George W. Bush got 62 million votes in 2004, and even in the low-turnout three-way race way back in 1992, when the population was lower, Bill Clinton got 45 million votes.

[GeorgiaPeanuts]

2. The DNC and corporate aligned Democrats seem hellbent on a Trump Presidency.

[silvershadow]

3. That is because we don't currently have a functioning DNC. Only DLC, which is like a parasite

consuming its' host.

[Punkingal]

7. That is a great description!

[BootinUp]

12. Why do you post such nonsense? Looks like pure anger to me, because it truly is

Last edited Fri May 20, 2016, 10:58 AM - Edit history (1)

a mind boggling twist of reality.

[upaloopa]

4. She will win votes from enough Dems and Independents and anti Trump Repubs to have a landslide

victory.

Those who will not vote in November are taking themselves out of the game. We would like to have their vote but they won't lose the election for us.

[Fawke Em]

5. For the umpteenth time, Bernie supporters aren't "sitting out."

That said: Independents don't like Hillary and won't be voting for her.

[uponit7771]

10. They didn't like Obama either and he won without them, facts matter

[angrychair]

11. That statement is unequivocally false

And ridiculous and you know it.
PBO didn't win without Independents.

[uponit7771]

14. rMoney won indies by 5% in 12 and MCrazy won them by ... 7% IIRC

[angrychair]

16. Not my point

You said he won without them. Even if your numbers were true, he still need a significant portion of Independents to win.

FYI, according to according to the Roper Center at Cornell University, your numbers are wrong:
In 2008, Independents broke 52 to 44 in favor of PBO.
I also source all my numbers:
http://ropercenter.cornell.edu/polls/us-elections/how-groups-voted/how-groups-voted-2008/


He did lose Independents to Rmoney by 5 in 2012 but he won 45% of Independents, a not so insignificant portion. Also a far cry from winning without them.

[uponit7771]

19. She'll pull the same amount of indies, DUP isn't the real world and neither is US politico meme that

... indies are not polarized seeing there are very few true indies that don't heavy lean.

Right now, according to the same FAUX news poll many Sanders supporters touted the other day, Trump is losing 5% of the white vote rMoney won in 12 and even more Latinos...

That's a landslide

[angrychair]

33. Not going to beat you up about

Source to much but if you are going to throw around facts and figures like that you should really source it with a link.

[ThePhilosopher04]

22. Getting 45% of indy voters is not winning without them

45% is a lot of votes. If independents make up a larger share of the electorate this time and she does worse than Obama, which she most certainly will, she's in big trouble. There will be a sizeable number of Dems who will stay home.

[ThePhilosopher04]

21. I proudly voted for Obama as did most Bernie supporters

Hillary ain't Obama.

[Yurovsky]

6. No, Hillary will lose the election for "us"...

Bernie polls significantly higher vs Trump, and in every election campaign she's ever run, her numbers skew downward with increased and continued exposure. She's simply not like able to most Americans. Neither is Trump, but his racist yahoos are all worked into a lather. Hillary's campaign stops are reminiscent of a funeral viewing... She may win, but I'd say it's 50/50 at best, and the polls back up my assertion.

[passiveporcupine]

25. Another yellow button

My list is getting soooo long.

Buh Bye

Plonk

[Rockyj]

29. And Santa Claus and the...

...Easter Bunny are real.

[oldandhappy]

8. I have no doubt she will win.

She does have a temper and we will see more of that. I am sure the DNC has lots of plans for the GE.

[JRLeft]

9. I'm one of the few Bernie supporters on this site who believes Hillary will be the next president.

[VulgarPoet]

13. I'm fairly certain she will be.

I'm not helping her get there. Down-ticket? Sure. Her? No. My vote for a "Democrat" won't even matter, since I don't even remember the last time Texas has voted blue.

[That Guy 888]

20. 1976 - Jimmy Carter.

I don't think Clinton will change that.

[Matt_in_STL]

28. I just moved to Florida, but....

I have been advised Hillary doesn't need my, or my Bernie supporting family's votes, so we will all vote strictly downticket and all for Tim Canova.

[Fast Walker 52]

15. I'm a Bernie supporter and I think she will win too.

Even though I'm not at all thrilled by her, on almost every issue, she is miles ahead of Trump, and on EVERY issue, she is sane and will have reasonable judgement, even if she leans more corporate/pro-war than I prefer.

[lumberjack_jeff]

31. If I had to place a bet, I'd say she'll be the next president...

... For about nine months, at which time the house impeaches her based on stuff that came to light between July and November.

I hope she picks a good VP. Think Biden or Warren.

[hedda_foil]

17. It's a good piece but it's by Matt Iglesias, not Klein.

Sorry, know this is nitpicky but it's weird that the link above resolves to http://www.vox.com/2016/5/20/11713776/clinton-appeal-bernie-voters and the article is credited differently.

[kentuck]

24. Thanks hedda!

Fixed.

[Hiraeth]

18. there's that pesky MATH again.

[pdsimdars]

23. Needs a "get out of jail free" card.

[dchill]

30. +1

[notadmblnd]

26. In other words, independanst who the State parties along with the DNC

made sure to lock out of the process.

Good luck with that Hillbots.

[merrily]

27. They want so badly to believe that nothing happened between Hope and Change Obama 2008 and

Clinton 2016. In fact, they want so badly to believe nothing happened between 1972 and now. You cannot keep looking backwards and assuming the events of ten twenty thirty forty years have not affected political reality.

[highprincipleswork]

32. There's two directions they can go to attract the additional voters, Right or Left. Turn Right, and

you become almost certain to lose the Bernie supporters who stand on principle, and that's quite a lot. People in general and they especially are tired of the old "the other side is scarier" argument.

You could turn or stay to the Left. That way you should keep the Clinton supporters you already have, capture a sizable portion of the Bernie supporters, and appeal to the young vote, and capture Independents who really believe in Progressivism and are sick of establishment politics, plus Republican who either hate Trump anyway or think you are the more reasonable choice or etc.

Turning rightward makes no sense at all, so DON'T DO IT! I mean, as you usually do.

By the same token you could start out on this long road already, convincing us you really mean any damn Progressive thing you ever say, by assuring the Bernie supporters there is room for them at the table and that your positions are really not that far apart. There's a lot of work to do, externally and perhaps internally, to sell that particular proposition.

Can you imagine if Hillary became a more Progressive President than Bill?
I can, and I can imagine the success I predict she would have. No more waffling, no more cutting the legs off under your base, honest and real and solid relief for minorities and for the less advantaged among us of all kinds/including now the middle class!

Wow, what a fine Progressive day that would be!!

I keep spouting this, hoping enough of us hear it and believe it to convey to our representatives of any kind so that they get their heads out of their reactionary asses.

I know, Hillary, the realignment to this kind of thinking might be hard, but it would be worth it. And in some ways it is just excessively obvious and the absolutely easiest thing to do. Return the party to its Democratic roots and come out a victor. C'mon ladies among us, wouldn't you enjoy seeing Hillary even more popular and effective and long-lasting a President than Bill, by doing things a different way? The steadfast FDR-style Progressive way.

And perhaps even those on DU can quit fighting so much afterwards.