Where did people get the idea that favorability and votes are correlated?

[Recursion]

People act like that's obvious but I can't think of a time it's actually been shown to be true, and several where it's been shown to be false.

[tabasco]

1. That's great news for Trump, isn't it?

http://www.washingtonexaminer.com/the-most-hated-candidate-usually-wins/article/2590520

[JoePhilly]

2. When the important metrics run against you ...

... you seek out new metrics.

GOP does the same thing. UE goes down, they seek new metrics.

That's what some Bernie fans are doing.

The votes and delegate math works against them, so they seek new metrics, like favorability, "Likes", or attendees at rallies.

[Starry Messenger]

3. I saw a study about a year ago--

Of course I can never find the link again, but it found that voters tend to vote on the basis of whom they believe seems Presidential, and could do the job, not values or favorability.

[procon]

4. Its a subjective catagory.

They're going on looks, personality, vibes, and emotional reactions. That's a long way from deciding on who has the chops, gravitas, a cool, calm demeanor, plus the intellectual skills to be worthy of the office.