Election model predicts Clinton over Trump (never been wrong in 35 years)

[joshcryer]

“President Obama’s approval rating has crossed over the important 50 percent threshold for the first time in almost four years,” said Dan White, a Moody’s economist who oversees the model.

Aside from rising gasoline prices, a drop in Obama’s approval rating is the only model variable that could possibly move far and fast enough to push the model in Republicans’ favor by November, White said.

“This sudden surge could be a result of the messy primary season or a relative lull in geopolitical news from overseas,” White said.

Moody’s latest model shows for the third straight month that the Democratic nominee would take 332 electoral votes compared with 206 for the Republican nominee. The model has predicted every election correctly since it was created in 1980.

http://thehill.com/policy/finance/economy/280761-moodys-election-model-sticks-with-democrats

This is my favorite model because of its simplicity. Do people like the president in power? Is the economy faring well? Is there relative peace? You win.

[lapfog_1]

1. well, there ya go, we can cancel the primaries, the convention and the election

and Obama can start his retirement tomorrow

[joshcryer]

3. Oh man, no one said that.

[lapfog_1]

5. it's a logical step

since this poll has never been wrong...

Why continue with a lame duck President when the outcome of the primary, the convention and the election is so certain...

unless, of course, it isn't that certain.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

6. outside of death nothing is certain.

[joshcryer]

7. The primary does far more than elect the nominee.

It creates the platform, brings in new political activists, broadens the base, and excites the party at the convention.

[lapfog_1]

9. According to Hillary supporters - Hillary should write the entire platform

as for excitement? Seriously? There is NO excitement for this convention if Bernie isn't there.

[Metric System]

12. Your opinion about excitement is not a fact.

[lapfog_1]

21. I'm sure the clinton supporters will be excited.

but they are a small minority of the general populace.

[oldandhappy]

2. OK Done deal. We can save a lot of money!

[k8conant]

4. It says Democrat over Republican...

only. (and said so last August also).

[joshcryer]

8. Obama recently just broke 50 favorable.

But they've been posting this monthly, what's interesting is how big of a landslide it's looking to be.

[bahrbearian]

10. Great we can start planning a new war now.

[Benitos]

11. Well. The Hill posted an article favorable to Hillary Clinton

That doesn't happen often.

[joshcryer]

13. It's Moody's election model.

I tried to link the economy.com article but it's subscription only.

[JCMach1]

14. The only possibility of a Trump victory is an Oct. Surprise terrorist attack

I have said that for months.

[joshcryer]

16. I would tend to agree.

And not some lone idiots but something significant like Paris or London or 9/11.

Fortunately Obama is in charge and actually reads his Intel memos.

[JCMach1]

19. But still... let me don my tinfoil for a minute and say MIHOP

So, do I completely trust the situation... no.

[reformist2]

17. So we're supposed to believe in models now, but not polls. Got it.

[joshcryer]

18. Well of course the model constraints must hold.

And it should be taken lightly this far out, a lot of things can happen to flip the model.

It's still encouraging.

[reformist2]

23. I believe the polls. Voters are way more informed than they used to be at this point in the cycle.

Time was people didn't start paying attention until August, or even after Labor Day. But with Bernie and The Donald making this year so interesting, I think a lot of people are paying attention - and are already making their minds up.

[joshcryer]

24. Which ones?

Half show her up, the other, down. Undecideds are high too.

[Punkingal]

20. There's a first time for everything.

[joshcryer]

22. Surprised this wasn't the first reply.

[Punkingal]

25. I always feel that way about streaks....nothing personal in my reply.

[joshcryer]

27. The model is pretty dumb, though.

It's basically a common sense poll.

[pressbox69]

26. Add to that the GOP hasn't taken the Whiyte House since 1980 without a Bush on the ticket.

you can look it up.

[Rex]

28. Plus the fact Bush/Cheney happened.

[pdsimdars]

29. What if she's not the nominee? What if the FBI messes things up? Was Obama under FBI

investigation?
Did Obama have the lowest favorability in Democratic History?




I don't think that model doesn't mean much in this situation.


Here's the latest heads up. She just slipped lower.

[joshcryer]

30. Whatever makes you feel better.

[pdsimdars]

31. We shall certainly see.

and remember. .




You feel better now?
.

[writes3000]

32. i enjoy you, joshcryer.

Big thumbs up.

[joshcryer]

33. Kick.

[timmymoff]

34. well thank goodness because I remember president gore well

likable president, good economy, relative peace...hmmmmm. His two terms were awesome.