If Bernie Wins California, Should Hillary Step Down?

[99th_Monkey]

If Bernie Wins California, Should Hillary Step Down?
5/20/2016 * Les Leopold * HuffPo

The Democratic Party must nominate the candidate with the best chance of defeating Trump. If Bernie wins California, Hillary is not the best candidate.

Oh, I hear the groans aplenty. Hillary won the most votes. Hillary has the most delegates. Bernie can’t possibly win against the Republican attack machine. Katha Pollitt in The Nation colorfully expresses the position heard often from progressive Hillary supporters:

“I just don’t believe Americans are ready for a 74-year-old self-described socialist with a long far-left CV who would raise their taxes by quite a lot. By the time the Republicans got finished with him, he’d be the love child of Rosa Luxemburg and the Ayatollah Khomeini, and then it’s hello, President Trump.”

But if Hillary loses California, what does that say about her ability to win in the fall? It would mean that she has alienated most white voters. It would mean she again has lost the vast majority of independents, a crucial category. It would mean she couldn’t win dog catcher among those under 30. And most importantly it would mean that she could lose to Trump.

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/les-leopold/if-bernie-wins-california_b_10051886.html

[NCTraveler]

1. If Bernie wins Florida , should Hillary step down? Nt

[onenote]

2. Should Obama have dropped out after losing California?

Next stupid question?

[Cali_Democrat]

7. ...

[joshcryer]

24. boom

The double standard is ridiculous.

[Bernin4U]

68. If it was the last "Super Tuesday"

Instead of the first, then maybe yes.

[hack89]

3. Winning battle ground states is more significant

Than winning a reliably blue state. Who won Florida, Ohio and Virginia?

[99th_Monkey]

16. Who won North Carolina, Wisconsin, New Hampshire and Colorado?

The swing states are Nevada, Colorado, Iowa, Wisconsin, Ohio, Pennsylvania, New Hampshire, Virginia, North Carolina, Florida.

They've both won their fair share of swing states, so you question is moot,

[Proud Public Servant]

19. Um, Hillary won NC

And WI is not a swing state by any reasonable measure (nor is PA).

[99th_Monkey]

34. That' a matter of opinion

However, the Republicans may be gaining an advantage in three pale-Blue states: Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. In all three of these states, the population over fifty constitutes a significant percentage of eligible voters: 44% in Michigan, 46% in Pennsylvania, and 44% in Wisconsin as of 2012. Even more significant, in these states their turnout is close to half of the actual voter turnout. If Republicans can reach out to the white voters over fifty in these states, they may coax them into swing states by 2016.

http://potus2016.org/swing-states-election-2016/

[hack89]

21. And losing California is irrelevant

It tells us nothing about the GE.

[floriduck]

53. It's optics. She started strong but Bernie is finishing strong. A CA win would send a powerful

message.

Side note: M's took game two against Reds. Felix looked better today.

[hack89]

66. Hillary finished strong in 2008

She won CA. Yet Obama was not a weak GE candidate. And Hillary won't be a weak candidate either.

[floriduck]

88. I'm not referring to 2008. I'm discussing this primary season. He is finishing stronger.

Last edited Sun May 22, 2016, 01:40 PM - Edit history (1)

[hack89]

91. By what metrics?

Let's see more than your opinion. Show some hard facts so I can see why you believe what you believe.

[floriduck]

95. I'm basing it on the number of Bernie wins in the last month or so. He's won more primaries/

caucuses. That's what I meant by finishing stronger than Hillary.

[hack89]

96. Obama lost seven of the last ten states in 2008

yet he was a strong GE candidate. In any case it is irrelevant - Bernie has no fair and democratic path to the nomination.

[Demsrule86]

111. Not stronger than she did he is not

Sander has lost...he is making deals for after he quits...can't you see that...he would get nothing if he had not agreed to concede.

[Demsrule86]

77. No

Mrs. Clinton won the hard-fought Democratic race in California, where both she and Mr. Obama had sought the state's wealth of 370 delegates to be chosen on Tuesday. According to early returns, Mrs. Clinton had strong showings in Los Angeles, Santa Clara and San Diego. Early exit polls showed Mr. Obama running strongly among African-Americans, white men, younger voters and liberals. Mrs. Clinton did well among Hispanics, white women, moderates and those who described themselves as "somewhat conservative." Those who identified themselves as Democrats tended to choose Mrs. Clinton; "independents or something else" overwhelmingly voted for Mr. Obama. A majority of Californians who were surveyed said they made up their minds in the last month. The economy was ranked most often as the top issue facing the nation, followed by the war in Iraq and health care. There were signs that both Democratic camps were growing polarized; only half of the voters said they would be satisfied if either candidate became the nominee.
Based on questionnaires filled out by voters across the state.

[floriduck]

89. My post relates to now, not eight years ago.

[CobaltBlue]

94. There are no concrete set of swing states.

It depends on the type of presidential year we have.

In 2008, a Democratic presidential pickup year, the swing states were ones in the 2004 Republican column for President Bush. And it was no surprise—incumbent Republican president George W. Bush was so severely unpopular that any nominee from that party (not just John McCain) was going to end up playing for second.

In 2012, resulting in re-election for an incumbent Democratic president, swing states were a mix of states which were 2008 Republican and 2008 Democratic—but mostly the latter because, going against common historical trend, President Obama underperformed 2012 vs. 2008. (In 2008, he won nationally by +07.26 percentage points and with 28 states plus Nebraska #02 and District of Columbia with 365 electoral votes. In 2012, he was re-elected with +03.86 percentage points and District of Columbia with 332 electoral votes.)

I notice that, with having looked at the past presidential elections of 1789–2012, no one given presidential election has resulted in a freeze—that the same percentage-points margin held, compared to the previous election cycle, and we ended up with exactly the same map. In fact, there has never been one presidential election’s electoral map exactly repeated later. (Close connections between Republicans Herbert Hoover, in 1928, and Dwight Eisenhower, in 1952 and 1956, were interesting…but there were some differences in carried states.)

2016 is not going to duplicate 2012. If the likely nominee from the Democratic Party, Hillary Clinton, is going to win a third consecutive election for her party, her support—compared to a 2012 Barack Obama—will either increase or decrease.

This would bring a change to the 2016 map (even if that change is modest). Decreased party support, from just a +03.86 margin, makes this election favorable to the effective nominee of the Republican Party, Donald Trump. That would mean he would retain all 24 states, with 206 electoral votes, which carried for the losing 2012 Republican nominee, Mitt Romney, and put into play bellwether states which would flip to Trump if he ends up winning: Colorado, Florida, Ohio, and Virginia—along with Iowa. And after that would come New Hampshire and others. If Hillary Clinton wins this election with significant increased support, that would take all 2012 states for a re-elected Democratic president Barack Obama and flip from the 2012 Republican column the likes of North Carolina, Georgia, Arizona, Missouri, Indiana, and possibly more.

This all depends on the numbers in the national shift—2012 to 2016—and going in which party’s direction. This should be a key issue for those who are genuinely concerned with Democratic primaries—especially with regard for hypothetical, general-election matchups for both nationwide and state after state.

[hrmjustin]

4. If a person comes in first place should they step down to the second place finisher?

The answer is no.

[SCantiGOP]

8. Yes they should

If Mars aligns with Jupiter, or if monkeys fly out of my butt.

[LoverOfLiberty]

101. The monkey scenario

is more likely than Sanders taking California, IMO

[CorporatistNation]

50. Says Who? She Is NOT Going To Get Indy Votes and Has Already Lost A Significant Proportion of Dems

So How Is She expecting to win when people have such a poor opinion of her on so many levels?

[hrmjustin]

57. The primary results shows she is ahead.

[kayakjohnny]

55. There's that bad dandruff clip again.

Is that supposed to be endearing?

[hrmjustin]

58. I love it.

[kayakjohnny]

61. I bet.

Let's compare notes in a few month's time shall we?

[hrmjustin]

62. Your opinion is noted.

[kayakjohnny]

63. Good. Cause it looks like she got some icky shit on that sweater.

Metaphors be damned.

[hrmjustin]

73. Feel better?

[Bobbie Jo]

92. I'm thinking y'all don't want to go there

with the "dandruff" thing.

Just sayin'...

[frazzled]

5. Should Obama have stepped down in 2008?

Hillary won California in 2008--51.5% to Obama's 43.2%.

So no, she's ahead in delegates by far more than Obama was in 2008 (indeed, she's about is ahead by 3 times the delegate margin that Obama had then).

Can we please get real? This is not how nominating primaries work. Also, California is not the nation.

[SCantiGOP]

6. Has DU merged

with The Onion?
Delusional postings are the order of the day.

(On edit: refers to OP, not your post Frazzled)

[Proud Public Servant]

9. If Hillary loses California

It says nothing about her ability to beat Trump. It says something about her ability to carry a liberal state against an even more liberal opponent, and that has no bearing on the general election.

My money's on her carrying the state on the strength of its large Hispanic population. But it doesn't matter. California will go Dem in the fall regardless.

What's more telling is that, with the exception of New Hampshire, Hillary has has beaten Bernie in every single swing state AND in the four states most likely to become swing states this year (AZ, GA, MO, and NC). If you want to talk stronger candidate against Trump, that's the more important stat.

[eastwestdem]

10. Winning a solidly blue state doesn't show anything about either candidate's ability to face Trump.

Particularly with the nomination already decided. It makes it very hard to predict how (or if) people will vote.

[anotherproletariat]

32. This. nt

[TexasBushwhacker]

83. It means a hell of a lot more than winning a solidly red state n/t

[Warren DeMontague]

11. No.

That's simply not realistic.

[amborin]

12. HRC should step down now. Under FBI investigation, massive quid pro quo at state, reckless regime ch

change, etc. The worst possible candidate

[Cali_Democrat]

15. Keep hoping for the indictment fairy to save Bernie from the will of the voters.

LMAO

[99th_Monkey]

39. The will of the voters is still in play

the Primary wheel's still in spin.

[dchill]

51. There is no "indictment fairy"...

There is however, the real possibility of indictment. And the FBI investigation is real.

[redstateblues]

52. Trump enabler alert

[restorefreedom]

65. A for effort! but no. nt

[Metric System]

13. It's a delegates race, not a number of states won race.

[Cali_Democrat]

14. LOL...the author is clueless about California

But if Hillary loses California, what does that say about her ability to win in the fall? It would mean that she has alienated most white voters.

Doesn't even realize that whites make up only 46% of the population in California.

What a clown.

[oldandhappy]

17. but but she already bought the balloons!!!

[NanceGreggs]

18. If Bernie loses Iowa ...

... Nevada, South Carolina, Alabama, Arkansas, Georgia, Massachusetts, Tennessee, Texas, Virginia, Louisiana, Mississippi, Florida, Illinois, Missouri, North Carolina, Ohio, Arizona, New York, Connecticut, Delaware, Maryland, and Pennsylvania, what does that say about his ability to win in the fall?

I guess we're entering the bargaining stage: "Hey, how 'bout we just throw everything into the pot and whoever wins California gets the nomination?"

This stuff just gets funnier (and more pathetic) with every passing day.

[ucrdem]

20. He's still big

in Vermont.

[Puglover]

40. Yeah do me a favor.

Please would you advise us all when the last time:South Carolina,Alabama.Georgia,Tennessee,Texas,Louisiana,Mississippi, went blue? They haven't been blue for a long long time. So that shrinks your impressive list just a tad.

And if you believe they are going to light up all pretty blue for Hillary...well good luck with that.

FWIW With our current sad election process I believe the OP's point to be moot.

[NanceGreggs]

42. Are you aware ...

... that the purpose of Democratic primaries is for ALL Democrats to have a voice in who their nominee is, regardless of what state they live in?

Thus far, the Bernie crowd have found one reason or another to completely discount every state that Bernie lost: too red, too diverse, too "southern", too "Confederate" - I'm actually waiting to hear things like "too hot in the summer, too cold in the winter, too rainy, too dry, too crowded, too just plain yukky."

I'm pretty confident that Hillary will win California - so I'm waiting to see what excuse there will be for not counting Cali either: Too hippy-dippy? Too close to the ocean? Too many trees? Too few outlet malls?

It's been the cry of the BS supporters since Iowa: Let's just NOT count the states that Bernie didn't win, m'kay?

[Puglover]

44. As usual you are all over the map.

Yes, I am aware of the purpose of the Democratic primaries. Are you aware of how the general works?

I don't really give a shit about what you are waiting to hear. That's just pap Nancy.

We shall see who wins CA. I don't pretend to know. I doubt that whoever wins will make a whole lot of difference on the predetermined outcome of this primary.

[NanceGreggs]

45. You don't seem to be aware ...

... of the purpose of primaries, because you're conflating the primary contests with the GE.

Two different things: one determines the Dem nominee, the other determines the next POTUS.

Therefore, pointing out the states that "won't go blue in the GE" has absolutely nothing to do with the Democrats who live in those states voting to select the Party's candidate.

If you really believe that the outcome of the Dem primary has been "predetermined", I wonder why you even bother to weigh-in on which states are "red" or "blue" in the first instance. If it's all "rigged", why bother mentioning that at all?

[KingFlorez]

22. If Bernie wins California, it's likely fraud

[JaneyVee]

23. Hillary won every big state so far. Cali next.

[JI7]

25. Obama lost California in 2008 . I'm glad he didn't step down

[JoePhilly]

38. Yea, but Obama is just as evil as Hillary, so that doesn't count.

[auntpurl]

105. On a Democratic board, it is shocking how many Bernie supporters think this.

I know you're not one.

[PAMod]

26. She will be fighting on two fronts...

...for the rest of the primary season. The results the rest of the way have to be viewed in that light.

[Zynx]

27. Why? She's won 8 of the 10 biggest states already.

[onecaliberal]

28. A person under investigation by the FBI, has no business running to begin with.

[EndElectoral]

29. If it was only that. Iraq, Honduras, Libya...what a flawed candidate just in foreign policy alone.

[onecaliberal]

30. She's a train wreck all the way around.

[barrow-wight]

31. No.

[litlbilly]

33. Yes. The way the regs are going in CA, Bernie is going to smoke her bigtime. I think

they are well aware of that so that's why the full on panic mode. Also why all the reg shenanigans going on in CA. Hopefully the lawsuit filed will allow all the people to vote regardless of the misinformation being sent to them by the state. I saw one form where it said they had to be registered my Mar 12 or something like that. We need to crush CA, that should make the Sd's thing twice before backing Hill at the convention.

[redstateblues]

54. take another toke-It's Bernie fantasy time

[pdsimdars]

35. She should have already stepped down . . . as soon as she was under FBI investigation.

[JoePhilly]

36. If he takes the lead in delegates, absolutely.

Which won't happen ... but you can fantasize about it for a while longer.

[vintx]

37. "it would mean she couldn’t win dog catcher among those under 30"

[redstateblues]

56. Too bad they only show up at arenas and not at the voting booth

[Godhumor]

41. Yes, let's just hold a primary in CA and let them select the candidate

Just stupid...

[bvf]

43. Why rush things?

Give her until the convention. Otherwise, it would be like cutting schoolyard recess short.

[99th_Monkey]

69. Exactly .. You pegged the essentially facetious & rhetorical nature of the question

"should Hillary step down?"

Hint: No one needs to step down until every primary is over and every vote is counted.

[bvf]

72. One senses there's a certain amount

of jealousy of Trump's campaign in certain quarters hereabouts.

[bettyellen]

47. "she has alienated most white voters." You mean the racist dudes who are into Trump?

Seriously stupid article.

[Retrograde]

48. Like all other states, the delegates are assigned proportionally

The Democratic delegates are assigned by Congressional (I think) district in proportion to how much of the vote in that district their candidate got. So if the vote is split 50/50 in my district, each will get the same number of delegates.

[Nonhlanhla]

49. No. nt

[Skid Rogue]

59. If she has...

one single delegate more than Sanders, it's hers.

[SidDithers]

60. Did Bernie step down after getting trounced in New York?...

How about Pennsylvania? Florida? Ohio?



Sid

[99th_Monkey]

70. .

http://www.democraticunderground.com/?com=view_post&forum=1251&pid=2025812

[primnickel]

64. I believe she will be told to step down by the establishent before the convention so Biden can run

They know she is toast in the general.

[Samantha]

74. I have believed that for a long time

Another issue not discussed much at DU is the fact when the issue of the improper use of a private server for classified information is resolved, the next stage will be the issue of public corruption (pay to play) with regards to transactions executed under the Clinton Foundation.

Sam

[One Black Sheep]

67. Yes, no question.

[thelordofhell]

71. In the words of that great American spiritual.........

[Starry Messenger]

75. Obama lost white voters in 2012 and still won.

[Demsrule86]

76. No

Delegates matter. She could 'lose ' the remaining races (don't' think she will) and still win. Bernie is done...He can not win. He can go on TV, say mean things and help Trump, but he will not be the Democratic nominee which is a good thing. He would lose badly in a GE.

[stone space]

78. Depends on how many pledged delegates he gets there.

If Bernie exceeds expectations and comes into the convention with a majority of pledged delegates due to his enormous unexpected landslide victory in California, he won't need Hillary to step down.

The supers will follow the pledged delegates and he'll be the Democratic nominee.

If he doesn't, the supers will still follow the pledged delegates, and he won't be the nominee.

[beachbum bob]

79. lol....sanders never been vetted nationally...and he would be beaten solid by trump....

but look, even with all the crap sanders, the media....has throw at hillary...all the money sanders as spent on attacking hillary...she still beats Trump...the nomination is about total delegates...and votes....hillary has resoundingly defeated sanders on both

her nomination is secured on the first ballot. Get used to it

[LAS14]

80. What a ridiculous idea!

[Waiting For Everyman]

81. 74 yr. old democratic socialist vs. 69 yr. old neocon neoliberal.

That's an easy one.

AND, Bernie's the better candidate to win.

[thesquanderer]

82. Is Les Leopold a pseudonym for H. A. Goodman? (n/t)

[GoneOffShore]

84. HRC-WJC Inc. should never have stepped up.

And it's a tremendous shame that Pres Obama appointed her Sec of State when she was best suited to be ambassador to Fiji.

[TexasBushwhacker]

85. I would never tell anyone to step down

But momentum is a powerful thing.

[Hiraeth]

86. I wish she had never stepped up but, since she did, I say: let this surreal campaign play itself out

[Tarc]

87. If Sanders can get 79% in California, thus erasing Clinton's delegate lead entirely, sure :)

Good luck with that.

[Garrett78]

100. Yeah, I'm not sure why the person with more pledged delegates would "step down."

Should the Broncos give the Super Bowl trophy to the Panthers?

[EndElectoral]

90. Should she? Yes. Will she? No way in hell.

[Ferd Berfel]

93. Hell she won't even step down if indicted

why would a little thing like losing Cal sway her?

[Playinghardball]

97. 99th_Monkey you just love ruffling the feathers of the Hillary supporters, right?

So do I...

[99th_Monkey]

107. Busted. LOL n/t

[brooklynite]

98. H.A. Goodman on vacation?

Bernie is nowhere close to closing the gap with Clinton in California (much less getting to the 67% margin he needs in Delegates), with only two weeks to go, no TV advertising and his money drying up.

[Beacool]

103. Must be........

Same stupidity, different blogger.

[anotherproletariat]

99. The most interesting part of Hillary winning the nomination will be what happens to organizations

such as huffpo. I wonder if it will start backing Trump? It wouldn't be surprising at all.

[Beacool]

102. No, nyet, non, nope, nah, etc.

It about pledged delegates. Since that math class seems to have been skipped by Sanders and his supporters, it may come as a harsh reality that he still has no path to the nomination.

[silvershadow]

104. Most likely. nt

[anigbrowl]

106. If my feet and hands turn into wheels, do I still need a driving license?

Bernie might win in California but right now that prospect looks remote.

[B Calm]

108. Hell yes! Her unfavorability ratings are identical to Trumps.

[Demsrule86]

112. Yeah well the 'bern'

had something to do with that didn't he? Like the guy who killed his parents and is now claiming orphan status...sorry Bernie you lose. I hope you are happy to see the progressive movement which I have worked my entire life to promote in danger...thanks to you...thanks Bern.

[thucythucy]

109. Just curious: if Hillary wins California

will you be urging Bernie to step down?

[99th_Monkey]

113. Nah, not so much.

I expect neither will step down, not until every state votes and every vote is
counted. This is as it should be IMHO.

[Demsrule86]

110. No

Bernie can't win by enough...to make a difference...Clinton won California last time ...and Ohio and PA too...he is the loser and I sincerely hope to never have to listen to him again.