Explaining Hillary Clinton’s Lost Ground in the Polls

[elleng]

'A month ago, Hillary Clinton had a big lead in national and battleground state polls. Today, she has a modest lead at best. A few surveys even show Donald Trump ahead. . .

Exactly what’s driving the shift is hard to say. What’s clear is that Mrs. Clinton’s challenge isn’t totally superficial. Just 20 percent of Mr. Sanders’s supporters have a favorable view of Mrs. Clinton in the most recent New York Times/CBS News survey, while 47 percent have an unfavorable one.

These numbers are not too different from the “anyone but Trump” voters in March. Then, The New York Times/CBS News survey found that just 17 percent of Republican primary voters who didn’t support Mr. Trump had a favorable view of him, while 50 percent were unfavorable. Depending on your point of view, it’s either a surprisingly bleak comparison or a favorable precedent, since Mr. Trump has since made gains in the polls. . .

The prospect of another fairly close general election is not what Democrats were hoping for against Mr. Trump, but Mrs. Clinton will have a chance to widen the gap by winning over supporters of Mr. Sanders.

Mr. Trump, despite his gains, now finds himself at around 42 or 43 percent in national polls. He still trails Mrs. Clinton in the balance of recent surveys, even though she is facing a divided Democratic Party. She is in the lead, in no small part, because there are simply more Democratic-leaning voters than Republican-leaning voters in the country. All but one of the most recent surveys show that there are more Democrats than Republicans.

But Mrs. Clinton nonetheless struggles because of her inability to consolidate the independent-leaning, young, liberal supporters of Mr. Sanders. The most recent wave of national surveys shows Mrs. Clinton winning just 55 to 72 percent of Sanders’s supporters. She’s faring far worse among young and liberal voters than one would expect. . .

Mrs. Clinton may find it not so easy to repeat Mr. Obama’s gains. There has been weakening in her support among Mr. Sanders’s supporters over the last month or so. In April, Mrs. Clinton held between 71 and 82 percent of Mr. Sanders’s supporters; today it’s between 55 and 72 percent.'>>>

http://www.nytimes.com/2016/05/25/upshot/explaining-hillary-clintons-lost-ground-in-the-polls.html?

[Octafish]

1. Blame Bernie.

Hillary Clinton allies worried about polls that suggest a tightening general election match-up with Donald Trump are placing blame on Bernie Sanders.

They say that the long primary fight with the independent senator from Vermont, which looks like it could go all the way to the Democratic convention in Philadelphia, has taken a toll on Clinton’s standing in the polls. In the latest RealClearPolitics average,she is two-tenths of a point behind Trump, the presumptive GOP presidential nominee.

The surrogates say they’re concerned that Sanders is still — this late in the game — throwing shots at Clinton and the Democratic establishment.
“I don’t think he realizes the damage he’s doing at this point,” one ally said of Sanders. “I understand running the campaign until the end, fine. But at least take the steps to begin bringing everyone together.”

CONTINUED...

http://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/280994-clinton-allies-blame-bernie-for-bad-polls

Works like a charm.

[elleng]

2. Yup.

[Jester Messiah]

3. It beats taking responsibility, I guess. n/t

[reddread]

4. there is really only one enemy

an honest democracy

[Betty Karlson]

5. Of course. It's all they have.

[Downwinder]

6. Familiarity breeds contempt.

[pdsimdars]

7. I liked that Lawrence O'Donnell's covering all of Hillary's previous elections and their polls

He found that she always starts out high in the polls and then starts to slide and the opponent starts to rise. If the election is not far off she wins. BUT, she has NEVER been able to turn the trend around when her numbers start to go down.

She is already falling below Trump. . In all her previous races, she has never been able to recover from something like that.

[elleng]

8. Haven't watched msnbc in a while but

do recall someone mentioning that her numbers never increase, a useful piece of information for those who might really care about a Dem win.

Thanks

[snowy owl]

11. but put her in margin of error . . . incorrectly I believe

Trump being 3 pts above her meant his margin of error was 3pts higher which O'Donnell ignored. There was a difference which he ignored.

[Katashi_itto]

9. Sun spots, Santa Anna wind, Bernie, pirates, volcanoes...

[bigtree]

10. look closely at Obama's polling numbers after he became mominee

...I mention this because the author claims Hillary is losing the Obama coalition.

Mark Murray ?@mmurraypolitics 3h3 hours ago
Past NBC/WSJ polls after GOP candidate becomes presumptive nominee:

March 2008: Obama 44%, McCain 42%
April 2012: Obama 49%, Romney 43%


..silly, article.

[icecreamfan]

12. Clinton's record and dishonest campaign caused her to lose 19% of 18-29s (ABC poll)

http://www.langerresearch.com/wp-content/uploads/1177a1ClintonTrump.pdf

Obama won 18-29s by more than 23%. Clinton is up only 3% right now.

If she can't win by a margin of more than 10% among the 18-29s, Trump could definitely win.

[Cosmocat]

13. Its pretty scary right now

08 just was not this contentious in the primary for BHO.

That election was about how fin bad Bush II was, Iraq, etc.

Hillary was certainly hurt over losing the nomination, but the party itself was united generally in taking getting the white house back and hating Bush II ...

Minus a common enemy, all the knives are pointing within the party right now.

Gotta find a way to keep trump no higher than about 44 or 45 before the conventions clear ...

He gets into the higher 40s or 50 before then, and it's not good at all.

This election was always going to be about the 10 percent or so that truly are no aligned with either party, or who are flexing in or out based on the final two.

Just have to clear the convention and see how it looks.

I still want to believe, at least, when it is him and her squared off and he acts like the jackass he is, if he has not hit that 46% or higher mark, it will break more to her ...