2016 Postmortem
Related: About this forumHillary Now Loses to Trump in Polls. Bernie Beats Trump by 10.8 Points
For months, Bernie Sanders has told audiences across the country that he is the best candidate to face Donald Trump based on polls that simulate a hypothetical showdown in November. Sanders continues to hammer in this sentiment now that the other Republican nominees have withdrawn from the race. And truly, new polls indicate this may now be the case.
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/david-pakman2/hillary-now-loses-to-trum_b_10115974.html
imagine2015
(2,054 posts)JaneyVee
(19,877 posts)He cant even beat Trump in the primaries. Trump has millions of more votes than Bernie, and hasnt even had attack ads yet.
restorefreedom
(12,655 posts)but i admire your spirit!
Armstead
(47,803 posts)randome
(34,845 posts)20? 30? More?
Are you trying to guilt the voters who prefer Clinton to Trump? What good does that do?
[hr][font color="blue"][center]Stop looking for heroes. BE one.[/center][/font][hr]
reformist2
(9,841 posts)There have been many elections where the polls early in the year predicted the eventual result.
randome
(34,845 posts)It's a truism that general election polls in May don't tell you much about an election in November. But if you see clear trends, they can tell you something about what's happening in May. To bring you up to speed there's a NBC/WSJ poll out this morning which shows Clinton ahead of Trump by 46% to 43%. There's also an ABC/WaPo poll which shows Trump up by two points, 46% to 44%.
[hr][font color="blue"][center]Stop looking for heroes. BE one.[/center][/font][hr]
Armstead
(47,803 posts)not a good place to be.
Dawgs
(14,755 posts)Is Hillary suddenly going to get more popular?
randome
(34,845 posts)When the choice is between 3 candidates, it's 'easy' to go for the one who's most edgy. That would have been Sanders. But once it's strictly a contest between 2 candidates, people favor one of those 2.
The more candidates, the more watered down the choices. Narrow the available choices and the polls become more accurate.
[hr][font color="blue"][center]Stop looking for heroes. BE one.[/center][/font][hr]
Renew Deal
(81,856 posts)B Calm
(28,762 posts)PeaceNikki
(27,985 posts)McCain saw a similar bump in 2008 - Philip Bump: In 2008, the last time the Democrats had a contested nomination contest, Barack Obama led in head-to-head match-ups against John McCain for most of the year. There were two big exceptions: Right after the Republican convention and right after McCain clinched his partys nomination. That happened in March, three months before the Democratic contest ended. His spike was short-lived. There are big differences between this year and 2008. One is that Post/ABC polling eight years ago consistently showed independent voters preferring Obama to McCain even shortly after McCain clinched. In our most recent poll, independents prefer Trump by 13 points. Theres overlap here with the point above, that Sanders backers havent come around to Clinton yet .At the end of the day, Sanders supporters will have to pick from the same menu as everyone else. Our very limited history of such contests suggests that most will bite the bullet and pick the candidate they hate less. Once the Democratic contest formally ends, well see if thats the case or if they simply go hungry. [Washington Post]
Betty Karlson
(7,231 posts)not jeopardise it! Nominate Bernie Sanders. You know he is our best (and only viable) chance against Trump.
lagomorph777
(30,613 posts)Does it actually matter who wins the GE?
Binkie The Clown
(7,911 posts)restorefreedom
(12,655 posts)Txbluedog
(1,128 posts)restorefreedom
(12,655 posts)sanders tends to run 7-12 over trump.
i think the 15 points might have been in a poll of sanders v cruz if i recall