2016 Postmortem

Tennessee Gal

(6,160 posts) Sat Nov 3, 2012, 12:15 AM Nov 2012

Oh, looky here! Nate Silver update ..............

http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/

12 replies

= new reply since forum marked as read

Highlight:

Oh, looky here! Nate Silver update .............. (Original Post) Tennessee Gal Nov 2012 OP

It's gone up by more than 1% in just a few hours! renate Nov 2012 #1

Yep. Tennessee Gal Nov 2012 #3

Nate said that the forecast would get more volatile as the election draws closer... regnaD kciN Nov 2012 #6

Damn! How Many Times A Day Does Silver Update His Predictions... iloveObama12 Nov 2012 #2

I just saw him on Rachel's show and he looked like he hadn't slept or shaved in days. SunSeeker Nov 2012 #4

+1 DesertRat Nov 2012 #5

He does look exhausted. And overwhelmed at his new celeb status. Jennicut Nov 2012 #8

Ohio now at 52% to be the deciding state Virginia next at 12% Tribetime Nov 2012 #7

Doesn't yet include the latest NBC/Marist polls of OH and FL VMA131Marine Nov 2012 #9

OH +6? Canuckistanian Nov 2012 #10

He has now updated it for a 3rd time tonight TroyD Nov 2012 #11

Oh, wow! Nate FINALLY has Romney's chances in NC declining to pink mnhtnbb Nov 2012 #12

renate

(13,776 posts)

1. It's gone up by more than 1% in just a few hours!

Reply to Tennessee Gal (Original post)

Sat Nov 3, 2012, 12:16 AM

Nov 2012

Tennessee Gal

(6,160 posts)

3. Yep.

Reply to renate (Reply #1)

Sat Nov 3, 2012, 12:21 AM

Nov 2012

Obama at 304.8 EV!

regnaD kciN

(27,699 posts)

6. Nate said that the forecast would get more volatile as the election draws closer...

Reply to renate (Reply #1)

Sat Nov 3, 2012, 12:36 AM

Nov 2012

Personally, I would expect multi-point swings up and down over each of the next three days.

iloveObama12

(425 posts)

2. Damn! How Many Times A Day Does Silver Update His Predictions...

Reply to Tennessee Gal (Original post)

Sat Nov 3, 2012, 12:17 AM

Nov 2012

SunSeeker

(58,374 posts)

4. I just saw him on Rachel's show and he looked like he hadn't slept or shaved in days.

Reply to iloveObama12 (Reply #2)

Sat Nov 3, 2012, 12:28 AM

Nov 2012

Keep crunching those numbers, Wonder Nerd!

DesertRat

(27,995 posts)

5. +1

Reply to SunSeeker (Reply #4)

Sat Nov 3, 2012, 12:30 AM

Nov 2012

Bub-bye Mitt and Ann...

Jennicut

(25,415 posts)

8. He does look exhausted. And overwhelmed at his new celeb status.

Reply to SunSeeker (Reply #4)

Sat Nov 3, 2012, 12:45 AM

Nov 2012

Nate was more under the radar in 2008. Now the nutball right wingers attack him constantly. Hope he gets some rest soon.

Tribetime

(7,145 posts)

7. Ohio now at 52% to be the deciding state Virginia next at 12%

Reply to Tennessee Gal (Original post)

Sat Nov 3, 2012, 12:42 AM

Nov 2012

VMA131Marine

(5,332 posts)

9. Doesn't yet include the latest NBC/Marist polls of OH and FL

Reply to Tennessee Gal (Original post)

Sat Nov 3, 2012, 12:49 AM

Nov 2012

OH - Obama +6
FL - Obama +2

Should improve Obama's percentages even more.

Canuckistanian

(42,290 posts)

10. OH +6?

Reply to VMA131Marine (Reply #9)

Sat Nov 3, 2012, 03:32 AM

Nov 2012

TroyD

(4,551 posts)

11. He has now updated it for a 3rd time tonight

Reply to VMA131Marine (Reply #9)

Sat Nov 3, 2012, 03:41 AM

Nov 2012

And included those new polls.

Electoral vote

Obama = 305.3

Romney = 232.7

----

Chance of Winning

Obama = 83.7%

Romney = 16.3%

----

Popular vote

Obama = 50.6%

Romney = 48.4%

--

http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/

mnhtnbb

(33,500 posts)

12. Oh, wow! Nate FINALLY has Romney's chances in NC declining to pink

Reply to Tennessee Gal (Original post)

Sat Nov 3, 2012, 06:46 AM

Nov 2012

I can't wait for him to get punched with an Obama win in NC on election night.

Reply to this discussion

Kick in to the DU tip jar?

This week we're running a special pop-up mini fund drive. From Monday through Friday we're going ad-free for all registered members, and we're asking you to kick in to the DU tip jar to support the site and keep us financially healthy.

As a bonus, making a contribution will allow you to leave kudos for another DU member, and at the end of the week we'll recognize the DUers who you think make this community great.