Clinton vs. Trump: Predicting The Electoral College

[Alfresco]

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/richard-north-patterson/clinton-versus-trump-pred_b_9848032.html

Okay. Like the Times and Larry Sabato, I give Clinton every swing state and throw in North Carolina.
The result? Clinton 347; Trump 191.

In general, voters tend to revert to their party loyalties, which could bandage Trump against further electoral bleeding. But if you like to imagine The Donald suffering a bit more, add Arizona and Missouri. Now Clinton more than doubles Trump, 368 to 170. Should you put up your feet, have a drink, and envision Trump plummeting toward 40 percent, the unique sclerosis of the electoral college will, at last, be tested.

A word of warning. The one way to mess this up is by not voting in November. The electoral college may be a cumbersome beast, but it still needs feeding.

So cheer up. Do your part, and after November we won’t have Donald Trump to kick around anymore. Except, perhaps, in reruns.

[Trust Buster]

1. Trump is a madman. If the country elects him, then the country deserves everything it gets.

If the country elects Trump, it will signal the official end to the American century IMO.

[Alfresco]

2. I am confident the American voters will deliver the humiliating defeat the Donald richly deserves.

[Trust Buster]

4. I'm not as confident. I have been concerned about the educational level of the average American

voter for some time. Reality television has had a big influence on people. Facts, not so much. This election will determine if a once great nation has hit rock bottom IMO. The fact the Trump has won the Republican nomination is shocking in it's own right.

[Garrett78]

6. While I think your concerns are valid, I can't see Trump getting 270 electoral college votes.

The fact that he has any support at all is disturbing, and there's no doubt he'll get tens of millions of votes. But his path to 270 is more than rough.

[Trust Buster]

7. But, the fact that such a carnival barker has an official "path" represents the canary in the coal

mine to me. Ten years ago, he would have been laughed off stage.

[Garrett78]

9. It certainly indicates that the Republican base has become increasingly extreme.

And increasingly batsh*t crazy, which is the fault of the Republican establishment. As much as more mainstream Republicans like to talk about how shocked and disappointed they are that Trump will be the nominee, they fostered an environment that's ripe for Trump.

Perhaps Clinton winning in a landslide will prompt the Republican Party to re-consider at least some of its rhetoric. Or not.

[Garrett78]

3. Outside of message boards like this one, that's the consensus.

As the Washington Post pointed out, 19 states (plus DC) have been won by the Democratic candidate in 6 consecutive presidential elections. For a total of 242 electoral college votes. 28 more and it's a done deal.

Those 19 don't include Florida (29 electoral college votes right there), Ohio, Virginia, North Carolina, New Mexico, Nevada, Iowa, Colorado, or Georgia.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/the-fix/wp/2016/05/02/republicans-have-a-massive-electoral-map-problem-that-has-nothing-to-do-with-donald-trump/

[VulgarPoet]

5. Hard to cheer up when you stand against oligarchs and yet are expected to vote for one. eom

[BlueNoMatterWho]

8. North Carolina

Trump leads in North Carolina now but I feel that we will win NC in the end. The swing states I'm not so sure about.