2016 Postmortem
Related: About this forumHave people been claiming that Clinton will reach 2383 via pledged delegates alone?
If so, I've missed seeing those claims. If not, why all the threads and posts about how Clinton won't reach 2383 prior to the convention? Wouldn't that be like having numerous threads exclaiming that water is wet?
Of course it's highly unlikely Clinton will reach 2383 via pledged delegates alone. Is anyone arguing otherwise?
MohRokTah
(15,429 posts)It is the height of idiocy to require a candidate to reach that number without Super Delegates.
The argument that Super Delegates do not vote until the convention is likewise, complete idiocy. NO DELEGATES VOTE UNTIL THE CONVENTION!
Hillary Clinton will reach the required 2383 delegates and clinch the nomination before the polls close in California on June 7.
GreatGazoo
(3,937 posts)If no single candidate has secured a majority of delegates (including both pledged and unpledged) during the first vote, then a "brokered convention" results. All pledged delegates are then "released" and are able to switch their allegiance to a different candidate.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_presidential_primary#Delegate_voting_at_the_convention
CNN doesn't control the nomination process.
George II
(67,782 posts)...attempt to avoid reality, ALL delegates vote on July 26. That means at this point Sanders has zero delegates.
Try as everyone might, the die is cast and the nomination is all but over. Time to move on.
slipslidingaway
(21,210 posts)the convention when the super delegates vote, TWO months from now.
Sanders has 1500 of the pledged delegates, neither candidate will reach the 2328 number before the convention, two months from now.
There is no way can Clinton reach the number with pledged delegates before the convention, although you do parrot the corporate media who is intending to call the election on 6/7.
http://www.thegreenpapers.com/P16/D-PU.phtml
Let all voters have a say and then onto to the convention.
And get involved, donate and call
https://go.berniesanders.com/page/content/splash
George II
(67,782 posts)Back in February it was "they should vote with decision of the people of their state". That changed a while later "they should vote proportionally according to how their state voted", and now it's "they should vote their conscience (or whatever word the Sanders people is using)"
Three different ideas.
The funny thing is that under all three of these schemes, Sanders falls short of Clinton.
It's over folks.
CentralMass
(15,265 posts)standard delegates to secure the nomination. It does not seem likely that she will succeed.
MohRokTah
(15,429 posts)She has the delegates. She needs only 78 more to clinch the nomination.
CentralMass
(15,265 posts)to secure the nomination. Bernie is 271 pledged delegates behind. It is not inconceivable that he could surpass her in pledged delegates by the convention.
On the Super Delegate side, Hillary enjoys a 93% to 7% advantage of the super delegates who have committed to date
A ridiculous statement on the democratic process. This will not be decided before the convention.
MohRokTah
(15,429 posts)She will clinch prior to the polls closing in California. That is a fact.
She will clinch a majority of the pledged delegates prior to all the votes being counted in California. That is also a fact.
And after DC votes on June 14, trying to pretend Hillary Clinton is not the nominee will be a fast ticket to the ban hammer on DU:
http://www.democraticunderground.com/?com=view_post&forum=1259&pid=10436
CentralMass
(15,265 posts)Neither candidate will have secured enough pledged delegates by the convention to win the nomination. In 2008 when Senator Obama passed Hillary in pledged delegates before the convention, the super delegates switched to him.
Should Senator Sanders pull ahead by even one pledged delegate by the convention the same scenario is possible.
MohRokTah
(15,429 posts)Attempting to contradict that fact flies in the face of the precedence of all prior Democratic primaries, especially the 2008 primary where Barack Obama secured the nomination with Super Delegate endorsements.
And once the voting is done on June 14, attempting to take your position on DU will likely get you banned:
http://www.democraticunderground.com/?com=view_post&forum=1259&pid=10436
CentralMass
(15,265 posts)Neither candidate is likely to have secured enough pedged delegates (how standard delegates are referenced) by the convention. Should either candidate have a majority of pledged delegates by the convention there is a strong precident that super delegates committed to the candidate with fewer pledged delegates will switch.
MohRokTah
(15,429 posts)And you have been called out on that statement because it is not factual.
2383 is the requirement with super delegates and Hillary Clinton currently has 2305 with super delegates.
Hillary will secure the nomination once New Jersey votes have been counted.
She will further solidify that clinching later in the evening before all votes in California have been tabulated by reaching 2026 pledged delegates, a position that no super delegate will argue against as having won the nomination
Those are a factual statements, no matter how much you wish they weren't.
CentralMass
(15,265 posts)of the primary then this should be over. Bernie should concede. If he should pull ahead, by even 1 pledged delegate by the end of the primary then the fight should goto the convention.
MohRokTah
(15,429 posts)Dream on. His barrier is about three times higher than Hillary Clinton's was at this point in 2008. It's just not happening.
Hillary will surpass well over 2026 pledged delegates the night of June 7, a full week before the voting is over.
Garrett78
(10,721 posts)And maybe Sanders will concede prior to the convention vote. And maybe he won't.
Regardless, I don't understand why there are so many threads and posts exclaiming that Clinton won't reach 2383 via pledged delegates alone. All I can figure is there's an epidemic of people claiming otherwise, yet I don't see any evidence of that.
slipslidingaway
(21,210 posts)convention.
Super delegates have their final vote at the convention, let the process play out in Philadelphia. Clinton will not have the number needed before the convention, two months from now.
George II
(67,782 posts)...the Sanders people have started trying to bully the superdelegates he has LOST a couple of them and dozens have come out to support Clinton.
fancypants75
(54 posts)Superdelegate numbers are nothing more than an opinion poll, THEY HAVE NOT VOTED!
MohRokTah
(15,429 posts)Barack Obama was only capable of securing the nomination on June 3, 2008, A FULL 80 DAYS PRIOR TO THE CONVENTION, WITH SUPER DELEGATES!
You put forth a phony argument.
Corporate666
(587 posts)Just because their vote isn't recorded until the convention in no way means we do not know how they intend to vote. They have stated their intentions.
Is it possible that something could occur to change their mind? Sure. It's also possible Bernie could drop dead tomorrow. Does that mean it's going to happen? No.
wallyworld2
(375 posts)No matter how you cut it
That is just how it is.
And there are some fanatics that just won't hear it.
And they make up all sorts of special rules or claims as a way to ignore that simple reality.
These un-elected, selected, Superdelegates have not voted and will not vote until the convention.
Where pledge delegates have actually been voted in to represent a candidate.
I was just kicked out of the Hillary group for saying just that.
They've had enough of democracy I guess.
But primaries are just that, they are not coronations.
Garrett78
(10,721 posts)...aren't official until the convention. But that's beside the point of this thread.
Where is the evidence that people are claiming Clinton will reach 2383 via pledged delegates alone? Thread after thread suggests people are making that claim, but I don't see a shred of evidence for that. It seems some folks just like building straw men.
Corporate666
(587 posts)that because the super delegates votes are not committed until the convention, that their vote can go either way.
This is a middle ground fallacy - the thinking that the middle between two positions is the correct one. But it's a fallacy nonetheless. It's analogous to a religious person claiming that because the Noah's ark story cannot be proven false, that it is equally likely to be true.
In the case of super delegates, their votes are not recorded until the convention, but that does not mean that their commitments which they have willfully made are any less valid, nor does it mean that are likely or even possibly going to change their vote away from the commitment they have already made.
Garrett78
(10,721 posts)As was the case in 2008. But, otherwise, I agree with your post.
morningfog
(18,115 posts)She will become the "presumptive nominee" on June 7. BUt will rely on the supers to actually secure the nomination.
Garrett78
(10,721 posts)I don't have any problem with people arguing that superdelegates (or even pledged delegates) aren't official until the convention. But that's beside the point of this thread.
Where is the evidence that people are claiming Clinton will reach 2383 via pledged delegates alone? Thread after thread suggests people are making that claim, but I don't see a shred of evidence for that. It seems some folks just like building straw men.
LuvLoogie
(6,971 posts)Once she reaches the majority odf pledged delegates she will have become the presumptive nominee as the SuperDelegates will not be persuaded to vote for Bernie to be the nominee.
There is no point in including the super delegates. They are not part of the primary. With 2026 pledged delegates, she will have won the primary.
She only needs 40% in three of the remaining primaries.
25 of 60 delegates from Puerto Rico
52 of 126 delegates from New Jersey
190 of 475 delegates from California
For a total of 267 delegates. She only needs 256 to get to 2026.
CentralMass
(15,265 posts)MohRokTah
(15,429 posts)You need to check your history on this. Super Delegates count prior to the convention as demonstrated when Barack Obama secured the nomination on June 3, 2008.
CentralMass
(15,265 posts)pulled ahead of Hillary in pledged delegates late in the cycle and in June after those final states voted and when Senator Obama held a pledged delegate lead, Hillary conceded and her or at least most of her superd's switched and Senator Obama became the the presumptive nominee..
At this point the precident is that the pledged delegate lead at the end of thr primary will determine the winner.
MohRokTah
(15,429 posts)Barack Obama took the lead in pledged delegates after the South Carolina primary on January 26, 2008, AND HE NEVER LOST THAT LEAD!
That lead never went over 100 pledged delegates, either. Clinton has maintained a lead of over 200 delegates for well over two months and nearly three months.
So you had better get your facts straight.
Recursion
(56,582 posts)Just like Clinton has never trailed Sanders since SC.
Garrett78
(10,721 posts)That doesn't mean people are claiming she'll reach 2383 via pledged delegates alone. All of the folks suggesting otherwise are building an army of straw men. If there is even one person claiming that Clinton will reach 2383 via pledged delegates alone, I'd be surprised.
Recursion
(56,582 posts)The kind of gymnastics people are doing here is crazy. The unpledged delegates will vote with the majority of the pledged delegates. Period.
CentralMass
(15,265 posts)MohRokTah
(15,429 posts)You cannot have it both ways.
Recursion
(56,582 posts)The number that matters is 2026. Clinton needs 255 to reach that, and Sanders needs 527 to reach that.
MineralMan
(146,281 posts)that unless she does, she might not get the nomination. Lots and lots of people are saying that. They're wrong.
Garrett78
(10,721 posts)Why all of the threads and posts exclaiming that Clinton won't reach 2383 via pledged delegates alone? I don't see anyone arguing otherwise. But thread after thread after thread...oh well.
Yesterday, I asked what the benefit would be of Sanders not conceding prior to the convention vote (as opposed to conceding right before the vote, avoiding a contested convention), and it seems nobody advocating for a contested convention has actually considered that question.
Sound reasoning, facts and critical thinking aren't common within the DU bubble.