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Thu May 26, 2016, 01:57 AM

Have people been claiming that Clinton will reach 2383 via pledged delegates alone?

If so, I've missed seeing those claims. If not, why all the threads and posts about how Clinton won't reach 2383 prior to the convention? Wouldn't that be like having numerous threads exclaiming that water is wet?

Of course it's highly unlikely Clinton will reach 2383 via pledged delegates alone. Is anyone arguing otherwise?

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Reply Have people been claiming that Clinton will reach 2383 via pledged delegates alone? (Original post)
Garrett78 May 2016 OP
MohRokTah May 2016 #1
GreatGazoo May 2016 #7
George II May 2016 #34
slipslidingaway May 2016 #20
George II May 2016 #35
CentralMass May 2016 #2
MohRokTah May 2016 #3
CentralMass May 2016 #4
MohRokTah May 2016 #5
CentralMass May 2016 #8
MohRokTah May 2016 #11
CentralMass May 2016 #14
MohRokTah May 2016 #17
CentralMass May 2016 #24
MohRokTah May 2016 #28
Garrett78 May 2016 #29
slipslidingaway May 2016 #23
George II May 2016 #38
fancypants75 May 2016 #10
MohRokTah May 2016 #12
Corporate666 May 2016 #18
wallyworld2 May 2016 #30
Garrett78 May 2016 #32
Corporate666 May 2016 #16
Garrett78 May 2016 #33
morningfog May 2016 #37
Garrett78 May 2016 #40
LuvLoogie May 2016 #6
CentralMass May 2016 #9
MohRokTah May 2016 #13
CentralMass May 2016 #22
MohRokTah May 2016 #25
Recursion May 2016 #27
Garrett78 May 2016 #31
Recursion May 2016 #15
CentralMass May 2016 #19
MohRokTah May 2016 #21
Recursion May 2016 #26
MineralMan May 2016 #36
Garrett78 May 2016 #39

Response to Garrett78 (Original post)

Thu May 26, 2016, 02:04 AM

1. The 2383 number is half of all delegates including Super Delegates

 

It is the height of idiocy to require a candidate to reach that number without Super Delegates.

The argument that Super Delegates do not vote until the convention is likewise, complete idiocy. NO DELEGATES VOTE UNTIL THE CONVENTION!

Hillary Clinton will reach the required 2383 delegates and clinch the nomination before the polls close in California on June 7.

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Response to MohRokTah (Reply #1)

Thu May 26, 2016, 02:31 AM

7. July 26

During the convention, there is generally a roll call of the votes. Each delegation announces its vote tallies. The delegation may pass, nominally to retally their delegates' preferences, but often to allow a different delegation to give the leading candidate the honor of casting the majority-making vote.

If no single candidate has secured a majority of delegates (including both pledged and unpledged) during the first vote, then a "brokered convention" results. All pledged delegates are then "released" and are able to switch their allegiance to a different candidate.


https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_presidential_primary#Delegate_voting_at_the_convention

CNN doesn't control the nomination process.

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Response to GreatGazoo (Reply #7)

Thu May 26, 2016, 09:30 AM

34. Nor does Jeff Weaver control the nomination process. Using the now desperate Sanders campaign...

...attempt to avoid reality, ALL delegates vote on July 26. That means at this point Sanders has zero delegates.

Try as everyone might, the die is cast and the nomination is all but over. Time to move on.

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Response to MohRokTah (Reply #1)

Thu May 26, 2016, 02:58 AM

20. Clinton currently has 1770 of the needed 2328 delegated needed, she will not have the those before..

the convention when the super delegates vote, TWO months from now.

Sanders has 1500 of the pledged delegates, neither candidate will reach the 2328 number before the convention, two months from now.

There is no way can Clinton reach the number with pledged delegates before the convention, although you do parrot the corporate media who is intending to call the election on 6/7.

http://www.thegreenpapers.com/P16/D-PU.phtml


Let all voters have a say and then onto to the convention.

And get involved, donate and call

https://go.berniesanders.com/page/content/splash






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Response to slipslidingaway (Reply #20)

Thu May 26, 2016, 09:34 AM

35. So what is today's philosophy of how superdelegates should decide on their candidate?

Back in February it was "they should vote with decision of the people of their state". That changed a while later "they should vote proportionally according to how their state voted", and now it's "they should vote their conscience (or whatever word the Sanders people is using)"

Three different ideas.

The funny thing is that under all three of these schemes, Sanders falls short of Clinton.

It's over folks.

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Response to Garrett78 (Original post)

Thu May 26, 2016, 02:07 AM

2. I believe that she needs 615 of the remaining 921 remaining

standard delegates to secure the nomination. It does not seem likely that she will succeed.

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Response to CentralMass (Reply #2)

Thu May 26, 2016, 02:08 AM

3. Bullshit. She will secure the nomination before the polls close in CA on June 7

 

She has the delegates. She needs only 78 more to clinch the nomination.

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Response to MohRokTah (Reply #3)

Thu May 26, 2016, 02:19 AM

4. She has 1,768 pledged delegates. She needs 615 more by the convention

to secure the nomination. Bernie is 271 pledged delegates behind. It is not inconceivable that he could surpass her in pledged delegates by the convention.

On the Super Delegate side, Hillary enjoys a 93% to 7% advantage of the super delegates who have committed to date
A ridiculous statement on the democratic process. This will not be decided before the convention.

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Response to CentralMass (Reply #4)

Thu May 26, 2016, 02:23 AM

5. She has 2305 total delegates She needs 78 more.

 

She will clinch prior to the polls closing in California. That is a fact.

She will clinch a majority of the pledged delegates prior to all the votes being counted in California. That is also a fact.

And after DC votes on June 14, trying to pretend Hillary Clinton is not the nominee will be a fast ticket to the ban hammer on DU:

http://www.democraticunderground.com/?com=view_post&forum=1259&pid=10436

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Response to MohRokTah (Reply #5)

Thu May 26, 2016, 02:33 AM

8. I state that the super delegate count will not be known until the convention.

Neither candidate will have secured enough pledged delegates by the convention to win the nomination. In 2008 when Senator Obama passed Hillary in pledged delegates before the convention, the super delegates switched to him.
Should Senator Sanders pull ahead by even one pledged delegate by the convention the same scenario is possible.

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Response to CentralMass (Reply #8)

Thu May 26, 2016, 02:38 AM

11. And that is a completely false statement. We know for a fact 537 have committed to Hillary.

 

Attempting to contradict that fact flies in the face of the precedence of all prior Democratic primaries, especially the 2008 primary where Barack Obama secured the nomination with Super Delegate endorsements.

And once the voting is done on June 14, attempting to take your position on DU will likely get you banned:

http://www.democraticunderground.com/?com=view_post&forum=1259&pid=10436

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Response to MohRokTah (Reply #11)

Thu May 26, 2016, 02:47 AM

14. I am stating raw numbers and making factual statements.

Neither candidate is likely to have secured enough pedged delegates (how standard delegates are referenced) by the convention. Should either candidate have a majority of pledged delegates by the convention there is a strong precident that super delegates committed to the candidate with fewer pledged delegates will switch.

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Response to CentralMass (Reply #14)

Thu May 26, 2016, 02:52 AM

17. But stating it is a requirement to have a super majority of pledged delegates os NOT factual

 

And you have been called out on that statement because it is not factual.

2383 is the requirement with super delegates and Hillary Clinton currently has 2305 with super delegates.

Hillary will secure the nomination once New Jersey votes have been counted.

She will further solidify that clinching later in the evening before all votes in California have been tabulated by reaching 2026 pledged delegates, a position that no super delegate will argue against as having won the nomination

Those are a factual statements, no matter how much you wish they weren't.

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Response to MohRokTah (Reply #17)

Thu May 26, 2016, 03:10 AM

24. If Hillary maintains the pledged delegate lead by the end

of the primary then this should be over. Bernie should concede. If he should pull ahead, by even 1 pledged delegate by the end of the primary then the fight should goto the convention.

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Response to CentralMass (Reply #24)

Thu May 26, 2016, 03:15 AM

28. Sanders must win every remaining primary by 33 points to do that.

 

Dream on. His barrier is about three times higher than Hillary Clinton's was at this point in 2008. It's just not happening.

Hillary will surpass well over 2026 pledged delegates the night of June 7, a full week before the voting is over.

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Response to CentralMass (Reply #24)

Thu May 26, 2016, 03:18 AM

29. And of course Clinton will maintain the pledged delegate lead.

And maybe Sanders will concede prior to the convention vote. And maybe he won't.

Regardless, I don't understand why there are so many threads and posts exclaiming that Clinton won't reach 2383 via pledged delegates alone. All I can figure is there's an epidemic of people claiming otherwise, yet I don't see any evidence of that.

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Response to MohRokTah (Reply #11)

Thu May 26, 2016, 03:05 AM

23. There are over 150 super delegates who are not committed and are rightfully waiting for the...

convention.

Super delegates have their final vote at the convention, let the process play out in Philadelphia. Clinton will not have the number needed before the convention, two months from now.



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Response to CentralMass (Reply #8)

Thu May 26, 2016, 09:43 AM

38. Try telling that to the 500+ superdelegates that have made up their mind. You know, since...

...the Sanders people have started trying to bully the superdelegates he has LOST a couple of them and dozens have come out to support Clinton.

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Response to MohRokTah (Reply #5)

Thu May 26, 2016, 02:37 AM

10. THAT IS NOT A FACT. Jesus Christ, how is this so hard to understand...

 

Superdelegate numbers are nothing more than an opinion poll, THEY HAVE NOT VOTED!

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Response to fancypants75 (Reply #10)

Thu May 26, 2016, 02:40 AM

12. BULLSHIT!

 

Barack Obama was only capable of securing the nomination on June 3, 2008, A FULL 80 DAYS PRIOR TO THE CONVENTION, WITH SUPER DELEGATES!

You put forth a phony argument.

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Response to fancypants75 (Reply #10)

Thu May 26, 2016, 02:53 AM

18. Incorrect

Just because their vote isn't recorded until the convention in no way means we do not know how they intend to vote. They have stated their intentions.

Is it possible that something could occur to change their mind? Sure. It's also possible Bernie could drop dead tomorrow. Does that mean it's going to happen? No.

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Response to fancypants75 (Reply #10)

Thu May 26, 2016, 03:56 AM

30. Bingo!

No matter how you cut it
That is just how it is.

And there are some fanatics that just won't hear it.

And they make up all sorts of special rules or claims as a way to ignore that simple reality.

These un-elected, selected, Superdelegates have not voted and will not vote until the convention.

Where pledge delegates have actually been voted in to represent a candidate.

I was just kicked out of the Hillary group for saying just that.

They've had enough of democracy I guess.

But primaries are just that, they are not coronations.

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Response to wallyworld2 (Reply #30)

Thu May 26, 2016, 04:11 AM

32. I don't have any problem with people arguing that SDs (or PDs for that matter)...

...aren't official until the convention. But that's beside the point of this thread.

Where is the evidence that people are claiming Clinton will reach 2383 via pledged delegates alone? Thread after thread suggests people are making that claim, but I don't see a shred of evidence for that. It seems some folks just like building straw men.

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Response to CentralMass (Reply #4)

Thu May 26, 2016, 02:51 AM

16. People are deluding themselves into thinking....

that because the super delegates votes are not committed until the convention, that their vote can go either way.

This is a middle ground fallacy - the thinking that the middle between two positions is the correct one. But it's a fallacy nonetheless. It's analogous to a religious person claiming that because the Noah's ark story cannot be proven false, that it is equally likely to be true.

In the case of super delegates, their votes are not recorded until the convention, but that does not mean that their commitments which they have willfully made are any less valid, nor does it mean that are likely or even possibly going to change their vote away from the commitment they have already made.

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Response to Corporate666 (Reply #16)

Thu May 26, 2016, 04:14 AM

33. Some would switch if the person they had been supporting failed to win the most pledged delegates.

As was the case in 2008. But, otherwise, I agree with your post.

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Response to MohRokTah (Reply #3)

Thu May 26, 2016, 09:43 AM

37. That's inaccurate. She will secure the majority of pledged delegates, but not the nomination.

 

She will become the "presumptive nominee" on June 7. BUt will rely on the supers to actually secure the nomination.

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Response to morningfog (Reply #37)

Thu May 26, 2016, 12:52 PM

40. As I wrote elsewhere in this thread...

I don't have any problem with people arguing that superdelegates (or even pledged delegates) aren't official until the convention. But that's beside the point of this thread.

Where is the evidence that people are claiming Clinton will reach 2383 via pledged delegates alone? Thread after thread suggests people are making that claim, but I don't see a shred of evidence for that. It seems some folks just like building straw men.

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Response to Garrett78 (Original post)

Thu May 26, 2016, 02:23 AM

6. Hillary needs 256 pledged delegates to clinch the majority of pledged delegates--2026.

Once she reaches the majority odf pledged delegates she will have become the presumptive nominee as the SuperDelegates will not be persuaded to vote for Bernie to be the nominee.

There is no point in including the super delegates. They are not part of the primary. With 2026 pledged delegates, she will have won the primary.

She only needs 40% in three of the remaining primaries.

25 of 60 delegates from Puerto Rico
52 of 126 delegates from New Jersey
190 of 475 delegates from California

For a total of 267 delegates. She only needs 256 to get to 2026.

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Response to LuvLoogie (Reply #6)

Thu May 26, 2016, 02:37 AM

9. She currently has 1 768 pledged delegates. She needs 615 more.

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Response to CentralMass (Reply #9)

Thu May 26, 2016, 02:42 AM

13. 2383 includes Super Delegates, so you left out 537 delegates.

 

You need to check your history on this. Super Delegates count prior to the convention as demonstrated when Barack Obama secured the nomination on June 3, 2008.

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Response to MohRokTah (Reply #13)

Thu May 26, 2016, 03:03 AM

22. If you are equating this to the 2008 primary Senator Obama

pulled ahead of Hillary in pledged delegates late in the cycle and in June after those final states voted and when Senator Obama held a pledged delegate lead, Hillary conceded and her or at least most of her superd's switched and Senator Obama became the the presumptive nominee..

At this point the precident is that the pledged delegate lead at the end of thr primary will determine the winner.

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Response to CentralMass (Reply #22)

Thu May 26, 2016, 03:11 AM

25. BULLSHIT!!!!!

 

Barack Obama took the lead in pledged delegates after the South Carolina primary on January 26, 2008, AND HE NEVER LOST THAT LEAD!

That lead never went over 100 pledged delegates, either. Clinton has maintained a lead of over 200 delegates for well over two months and nearly three months.

So you had better get your facts straight.

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Response to CentralMass (Reply #22)

Thu May 26, 2016, 03:12 AM

27. Obama was literally never trailing Clinton after SC

Just like Clinton has never trailed Sanders since SC.

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Response to CentralMass (Reply #22)

Thu May 26, 2016, 04:07 AM

31. Yes, and it's all but a guarantee that Clinton will maintain her pledged delegate lead.

That doesn't mean people are claiming she'll reach 2383 via pledged delegates alone. All of the folks suggesting otherwise are building an army of straw men. If there is even one person claiming that Clinton will reach 2383 via pledged delegates alone, I'd be surprised.

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Response to CentralMass (Reply #9)

Thu May 26, 2016, 02:51 AM

15. This isn't difficult. The only number that matters is 2026. The candidate with 2026 pledged wins

The kind of gymnastics people are doing here is crazy. The unpledged delegates will vote with the majority of the pledged delegates. Period.

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Response to Recursion (Reply #15)

Thu May 26, 2016, 02:53 AM

19. 2,383 is the number.

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Response to CentralMass (Reply #19)

Thu May 26, 2016, 03:01 AM

21. If you go with the 2383 number, you must also go with the 2305 as Hillary's delegate couont

 

You cannot have it both ways.

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Response to CentralMass (Reply #19)

Thu May 26, 2016, 03:11 AM

26. No, it's just not. The superdelegates will not overturn the majority of the pledged delegates

The number that matters is 2026. Clinton needs 255 to reach that, and Sanders needs 527 to reach that.

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Response to Garrett78 (Original post)

Thu May 26, 2016, 09:40 AM

36. No. Lots of people, though, have been claiming

that unless she does, she might not get the nomination. Lots and lots of people are saying that. They're wrong.

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Response to MineralMan (Reply #36)

Thu May 26, 2016, 12:22 PM

39. Agreed. I'm left wondering why folks are assembling an army of straw men.

Why all of the threads and posts exclaiming that Clinton won't reach 2383 via pledged delegates alone? I don't see anyone arguing otherwise. But thread after thread after thread...oh well.

Yesterday, I asked what the benefit would be of Sanders not conceding prior to the convention vote (as opposed to conceding right before the vote, avoiding a contested convention), and it seems nobody advocating for a contested convention has actually considered that question.

Sound reasoning, facts and critical thinking aren't common within the DU bubble.

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