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Fortune: Polls Show Trump Winning in a Clinton Showdown, and They May Be Right
Polls Show Trump Winning in a Clinton Showdown, and They May Be Right
http://fortune.com/2016/05/25/election-polls-hillary-clinton-donald-trump/
There were some early signs several weeks ago that suggested Trump might be more competitive in a general election than some soothsayers were predicting. There was a George Washington University Battleground poll that had shown Clinton with a statistically insignificant three-point lead over Trump, a Quinnipiac poll taken in early May that showed Clinton and Trump running dead even in the battleground states of Florida, Ohio, and Pennsylvania, and an earlier Rasmussen poll—later widely dismissed—that showed Clinton and Trump in a dead heat. But for months, most national polls have shown Trump trailing by anywhere from 8 to 12 points among registered voters, a margin confirmed by the Real Clear Politics (RCP) polling average, and which, for a stretch from February to April, had Clinton leading in every head-to-head matchup.
That appears to have changed—and changed dramatically. Within the last 10 days, five polls have shown the race essentially a dead heat, with Trump actually leading by statistically insignificant margins in three of these polls.
The Wall Street Journal-NBC News: Clinton 46-Trump 43
The Washington Post—ABC News: Clinton 44-Trump 46
Fox News: Clinton 42-Trump 45
Rasmussen: Clinton 37-Trump 42
The New York Times—CBS News: Clinton 47-Trump 41
Taken together, the average for the five polls is a dead-even 43-43.
What appears to be happening is that the end of the bitter Republican primary battle has allowed Trump the opportunity to solidify his support among Republicans, and in doing so, his favorability ratings have risen, while Clinton’s unfavorable ratings have remained relatively constant, or in some polls, her favorability has deteriorated. The Fox News Poll shows 61% with an unfavorable view of Clinton vs. 56% unfavorable for Trump. The Washington Post-ABC poll shows that 60% of voters view Trump unfavorably, while 53% view Clinton unfavorably, which are nonetheless astronomically high for both candidates. In some respects, it is remarkable that, given the personal nature of the attacks directed by Trump at his rivals, and in some cases by Trump’s rivals against him, the GOP has come together so quickly, although there are still wounds that will take month—if not years—to heal. Clinton, on the other hand, is suffering from the continuation of a long primary struggle against an opponent unwilling to concede and who gives every indication of being willing to fight all the way to the convention.
http://fortune.com/2016/05/25/election-polls-hillary-clinton-donald-trump/
There were some early signs several weeks ago that suggested Trump might be more competitive in a general election than some soothsayers were predicting. There was a George Washington University Battleground poll that had shown Clinton with a statistically insignificant three-point lead over Trump, a Quinnipiac poll taken in early May that showed Clinton and Trump running dead even in the battleground states of Florida, Ohio, and Pennsylvania, and an earlier Rasmussen poll—later widely dismissed—that showed Clinton and Trump in a dead heat. But for months, most national polls have shown Trump trailing by anywhere from 8 to 12 points among registered voters, a margin confirmed by the Real Clear Politics (RCP) polling average, and which, for a stretch from February to April, had Clinton leading in every head-to-head matchup.
That appears to have changed—and changed dramatically. Within the last 10 days, five polls have shown the race essentially a dead heat, with Trump actually leading by statistically insignificant margins in three of these polls.
The Wall Street Journal-NBC News: Clinton 46-Trump 43
The Washington Post—ABC News: Clinton 44-Trump 46
Fox News: Clinton 42-Trump 45
Rasmussen: Clinton 37-Trump 42
The New York Times—CBS News: Clinton 47-Trump 41
Taken together, the average for the five polls is a dead-even 43-43.
What appears to be happening is that the end of the bitter Republican primary battle has allowed Trump the opportunity to solidify his support among Republicans, and in doing so, his favorability ratings have risen, while Clinton’s unfavorable ratings have remained relatively constant, or in some polls, her favorability has deteriorated. The Fox News Poll shows 61% with an unfavorable view of Clinton vs. 56% unfavorable for Trump. The Washington Post-ABC poll shows that 60% of voters view Trump unfavorably, while 53% view Clinton unfavorably, which are nonetheless astronomically high for both candidates. In some respects, it is remarkable that, given the personal nature of the attacks directed by Trump at his rivals, and in some cases by Trump’s rivals against him, the GOP has come together so quickly, although there are still wounds that will take month—if not years—to heal. Clinton, on the other hand, is suffering from the continuation of a long primary struggle against an opponent unwilling to concede and who gives every indication of being willing to fight all the way to the convention.
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