2016 Postmortem
Related: About this forumMay 26, Poll: Clinton, Sanders neck-and-neck in California.
CNNClinton, Sanders neck-and-neck in California
By David Wright, CNN
May 26, 2016
Washington (CNN) A new California poll shows Hillary Clinton and Bernie Sanders locked in a dead heat, while likely Republican nominee Donald Trump trails both Democrats in general elections matchups in the blue state.
The Public Policy Institute of California (PPIC) poll, released Thursday, finds Clinton ahead of Sanders 46%-44% among likely Democratic primary voters -- within the poll's margin of error.
Clinton and Sanders supporters, according to the poll, match up with other states: Clinton is favored by registered Democrats and older voters, while Sanders leads among independents and younger voters. More women back Clinton and more men back Sanders, but the gender divide is small.
The PPIC poll also reported that California voters are unhappy with their choices for president in 2016. Just 42% of likely voters said they are satisfied with their options, compared to 57% in May of 2012. Slightly more than half (53%) of Democrats say they are satisfied, but just over a third of Republicans (36%) and independents (35%) say the same.
lagomorph777
(30,613 posts)...nor any FBI report that may come out before June 7th.
Seismic shift is in progress.
NWCorona
(8,541 posts)CrowCityDem
(2,348 posts)Hillary up 6 with Whites, 9 with Latinos, who knows how much more with African Americans, and somehow only up 2 in the entire state? That can't be.
firebrand80
(2,760 posts)over a single poll
CrowCityDem
(2,348 posts)All anyone is going to hear is the 2 point margin. The fact that the internal numbers don't support that conclusion whatsoever will get lost in the giddy screaming by Bernie fans.
firebrand80
(2,760 posts)No other poll showed anything close to that. That doesn't even necessarily mean it's wrong, it just means that the chances of that one being the result vs. all the other showing a much different result is quite low.
Now, if newer polls start to come in showing a close result, then we can conclude that the race has tightened.
When we have a poll showing Bernie winning by 25, then we'll have something important to talk about.
JackRiddler
(24,979 posts)that keeps 18-30 at 6% of its final sample and doesn't do cell phones!
Hurry! We need some BREAKING NEWS about Clinton's insurmountable 39-point lead!
firebrand80
(2,760 posts)other than make for a feel-good story, unless he wins by 25+ points
imagine2015
(2,054 posts)firebrand80
(2,760 posts)Bernie has constructed the narrative that a win in CA changes everything. It doesn't, the candidate with the most PDs will be the nominee. All the stuff about "momentum" and Bernie vs. Trump polls is just talk. There's no evidence that a single SD is ready to flip to Bernie on that basis.