New York Times: California Looking Less Like a Sure Thing for Hillary Clinton

[imagine2015]

The New York Times
California Looking Less Like a Sure Thing for Hillary Clinton
By AMY CHOZICK
May 27, 2016

On Wednesday, after days of looking, Karen Furia, 65, finally found what she was searching for: a “Hillary” bumper sticker, at a Clinton campaign rally in Salinas, Calif.

“I keep hearing Bernie, Bernie, Bernie, or seeing Bernie fliers,’’ said Ms. Furia, a retiree. “I am sort of tired of hearing him.’’

She was referring, of course, to Senator Bernie Sanders, Mrs. Clinton’s Democratic opponent, who is pouring energy and resources into California’s June 7 primary.

His efforts appear to be paying off.
For months, the Clinton campaign exuded confidence about California, a diverse state in which 30 percent of the Democratic electorate is Latino, with a primary rather than a caucus, a format that tends to favor Mrs. Clinton. She defeated Barack Obama there by 8.3 percentage points in 2008 and had hoped the state could serve as the victorious bookend of a turbulent primary race.

But now, Mrs. Clinton’s lead in California has evaporated, going from seven percentage points over Mr. Sanders in March to two percentage points, within the margin of error, in a poll released Wednesday night by the nonpartisan Public Policy Institute of California.

.... losing the most populous state, the birthplace of political movements and trends that often shape the rest of the country, would deal Mrs. Clinton a tremendous blow and send her hobbling to the Democratic National Convention in July.

Another factor helping Mr. Sanders is that nonwhite voters here tend to be younger than elsewhere in the country, and more receptive to Mr. Sanders. While Mrs. Clinton had strong support among minority voters in previous primary states, the Public Policy poll showed the two candidates splitting the nonwhite vote.

Read the full article at:
http://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/california-looking-less-like-a-sure-thing-for-hillary-clinton/ar-BBtxzXo?li=BBnb7Kz

[Tal Vez]

1. I live in California and I find it hard to believe that Sanders will win as many delegates

as he needs - seventy or eighty percent. I believe that she will the popular vote.

[imagine2015]

2. Bernie and his supporters are hoping he will win more delegates than Clinton in California

Just a short time ago Clinton thought that would be nearly impossible.

She had California locked up!

Remember that?

If Hillary Clinton can't put away a 74 year old socialist from Vermont she sure as hell can't beat Donald Trump in the general election.

And she will drag down a whole lot of Democratic Party office holders down with her to defeat.

Abandon ship!

[LoverOfLiberty]

4. Hillary won CA in 2008

And it didn't derail Obama.

TFB

[frylock]

38. Obama didn't have record unfavorables or an FBI investigation hanging over his head.

[dchill]

51. Good for her. This is 2016.

[Betty Karlson]

27. What Imagine2015 said!

[pnwmom]

46. But she'll already have the nomination by the time NJ finishes voting.

So whatever she gets in CA will be the icing on the cake.

[Retrograde]

5. I expect a 45/55 split

and I have no idea who will get the larger share.

A lot of new voters registered in the past few months, which tends to favor Sanders. OTOH, vote by mail is big here, which tends to favor Clinton. I think polls have been less than helpful this year because 1) they're not weighing mail voters as much as they should, 2) they're still based largely on calling landline numbers, which skew towards older voters, and 3) a lot of those older voters use caller id because they're tired of surveys.

Disclaimer: my prediction accuracy rate is abominable.

[LoverOfLiberty]

3. Seems like you left this part out

“Every minute she has to spend on Sanders is a moment and a dollar she can’t spend on Trump,” said Steven Maviglio, a Sacramento-based political consultant. But, he added: “It’s the Super Bowl for Bernie. It’s game over. He has nowhere else to put his money when this is done.”

[imagine2015]

7. It's not at all left out. Didn't you click on my link to read it?

It's is the Super Bowl of primaries with the most delegates up for election.

And it's the last day of state primaries.

There are not any more states to spend money for primaries.

Is that your point?

Not a real huge point and everyone who follows the primaries already knows that.

[Ferd Berfel]

12. He has endorsed about 8-9 DOwn Ticket Progressive candidates

so far. Probably more coming.
Bet that's where much of his money goes if he is not the Nom.

[Garrett78]

6. I've long suspected the vote in CA will be reasonably close.

The problem for Sanders is that he would need to win at least 70-30 to have a shot at ending up with a majority of pledged delegates.

[imagine2015]

8. I don't think Clinton or Bernie will have enough delegates to win the nomination.

Unless Clinton withdraws her name from consideration after the primaries.

Than it becomes a totally open and contested convention.

[Garrett78]

9. The person with the most pledged delegates always becomes the nominee.

I don't see this year being any different. If Sanders doesn't end up with at least 2026 pledged delegates, he does not stand a chance at being nominated. To make that happen, he'll need at least 70% in California. It's really that simple.

[senz]

34. Right. Neither can cinch the nomination from pledged delegates.

It's too close and there are too many primaries to go.

http://www.democraticunderground.com/12512053905

[pnwmom]

47. The Don is the presumptive nominee on the basis of his combined delegates.

So will she. The supers will be counted by the media.

[KingFlorez]

10. 46% non-white

And probably even more non-white than that in the Democratic primary electorate. Not good territory for BS.

[lagomorph777]

14. 99% non-security-flouting

Will not have a lot of sympathy for her e-mail woes.

[senz]

29. Didn't see this, KingFlorez?

It's from the OP:

While Mrs. Clinton had strong support among minority voters in previous primary states, the Public Policy poll showed the two candidates splitting the nonwhite vote.

Looks like everyone is waking up!

[ucrdem]

11. Clinton doesn't actually need California. Bernie could win every delegate in the state

and she'll still clinch before the polls even close here:

https://interactives.ap.org/2016/delegate-tracker/

She needs 74 delegates, possibly fewer by now, to clinch. Forget "he needs 65%." It's over. He lost. The rest is sour grapes and self-delusion.

[Garrett78]

15. *IF* Sanders were to end up with 2026 pledged delegates, the SDs should at least consider switching.

That's not going to happen, of course. And a 2026-2025 finish wouldn't necessarily sway SDs (especially those who don't think Sanders is electable or those who realize he's only done as well as he has because of caucuses).

I fully expect Clinton to end up with something like 2200 PDs. But Sanders has not been mathematically eliminated from reaching 2026, and no candidate with a lead in PDs has ever been denied the nomination.

[ucrdem]

16. 2026 doesn't clinch except in #BernieMath.

And the remaining unpledged superdelegates include Barack Obama, Nancy Pelosi, Debbie WS, etc. You think they're squinting at their monitors trying to decide who to vote for?

[Garrett78]

18. I didn't say 2026 clinched. But the PD leader has always been nominated.

Now, just because something has happened every other time doesn't guarantee it would happen this time (for a variety of reasons, such as those I mentioned in my last post), but the fact of the matter is Sanders has not been mathematically eliminated from reaching 2026.

Also, delegates aren't bound. Not even the pledged delegates are bound. And they don't become official until the convention.

It's pretty much a moot point, as Clinton will end up with far more delegates than Sanders will. And she'll be the nominee.

[ucrdem]

19. If he wins every pledged delegate in CA he gets to 2011 total. And Clinton still wins.

And as soon as he releases his delegates they flock to Clinton. Yes, it's mathematically impossible for him to win the nomination. No, I don't think it's fair to his supporters to keep hope alive but the media seem eager to play that game so here we are.

[Garrett78]

20. If he wins ~67.5% of the remaining pledged delegates, he'd end up with 2026 pledged delegates.

The person with the most pledged delegates has always been nominated. That's why superdelegates switched to Obama in '08, because he ended up with more pledged delegates. I'm not saying that's what will happen this year. In fact, I've made it clear that I don't think that will happen. But, technically, it *can* happen. To deny that possibility is wrong.

[ucrdem]

21. And he will have lost. How hard is that to grasp? nt

[Garrett78]

22. You're assuming SDs wouldn't switch if he were to win a majority of PDs.

Even though that's precisely what happened in 2008.

Will it happen? No. But it can happen. How do we know? Because it has happened. How hard is that to grasp?

[ucrdem]

23. Yes, I'm also assuming the earth won't crash into the sun before July 25. nt

[Garrett78]

24. Since that's never happened and what I'm referring to has happened, poor analogy.

I fully agree that Clinton will be the nominee. That doesn't change the fact that superdelegates have switched in the past, the fact that Sanders could win a majority of pledged delegates (by winning ~67.5% of the remaining pledged delegates), and the fact that the leader in pledged delegates has never been denied the nomination. No matter how unlikely it is that Sanders will end up with 2026 or that he'll become the nominee, those 3 things I just listed are all undeniable facts.

[ucrdem]

25. The circumstances are completely different. SDs owe nothing to Sanders and at this point

he's made himself toxic anyway. To imagine that any politician in their right mind would switch now is like hoping they'd jump from a moving plane without a parachute.

[senz]

31. WRONG. Clinton cannot reach 2383 pledged delegates

from the remaining primaries. It is impossible.

Hillary has 1771 pledged delegates. Bernie has 1487 pledged delegates (284 fewer than Hill).

Hillary needs 612 more pledged delegates to get to 2383.

There are only 781 pledged delegates left in the remaining nine primaries:

Virgin Islands, PR, CA Mont NJ, NM, ND SD, DC

Even if Hill does well in several states, she will not be able to reach 2383.

[Garrett78]

33. It isn't impossible. It's just *highly* unlikely.

It's also not consequential, as the person who ends up with the most pledged delegates has always been the one who gets nominated.

She'll probably end up with close to 2200 pledged delegates. For all intents and purposes, that seals the deal.

[ucrdem]

39. 2383 includes pledged and unpledged delegates. She doesn't need 2200 pledged to clinch or win.

To suggest otherwise is what some are politely calling #BernieMath.

[Garrett78]

41. Of course she doesn't. I was just predicting how many she'll end up with.

As long as she wins a majority of pledged delegates, there's no doubt about how the convention vote will go.

[ucrdem]

42. She'll win a majority of pledged and superdelegates, and there's no doubt about how the convention

will go, so one wonders, why is he still campaigning like there is? What is he hoping to accomplish beside damaging the Democratic candidate? And why would he want to do that if he has no chance of winning?

[ucrdem]

35. *sigh*

I'm not gonna say it. Keep hope alive.

[senz]

36. Facts are facts.

I know how badly you want to push it through, but you are not there yet, and those of us who care about the poor, the middle class, the hardworking backbone of this country, will not stop just so you can push a corrupt, corporate, losing candidate through.

[LoverOfLiberty]

43. Why are you treating fellow Democrats

like we are Republicans? Seriously, you need to get a grip on the situation.

Insinuating we don't care about the poor or middle class? FU

[senz]

44. Ye shall know them by their candidate.

[LoverOfLiberty]

45. By that standard

guess that makes you a loser

[pnwmom]

50. The fact is that the total number of delegates includes the supers. Half of the pledged alone

is 2026, which she'll have by the time NJ has voted. And the rest will come from a combination of pledged and supers.

[pnwmom]

49. She doesn't need to. That is half of the TOTAL delegates, INCLUDING SUPERS.

So she will use some of her supers to get her to the 2383, of course.

[senz]

55. Well if she gets there it won't be until July 25.

In the meantime, she's not the nominee.

[pnwmom]

56. She's the presumptive nominee. And in July she'll win the convention,

because there's no way hundreds of super delegates are going to turn their back on the hundreds of pledged delegates and millions of diverse voters who chose her over Bernie.

[senz]

59. "Presumptive nominee" is meaningless here. Hill is only ahead by 284 delegates.

Bernie could have wiped out Hill's lead with a big win in California with its 475 delegates.

Which is probably why the AP made Hill the "presumptive nominee" the night before the California primary and five other primaries. Trying to suppress the vote.

As for superdelegates, they can change their mind before the convention, and they may have some very good reasons to do so.

[pnwmom]

61. "ONLY"?! He would have to get big wins EVERYWHERE, wins of 70% or more of

the delegates in New Jersey AND California AND New Mexico.

In this whole election, he's only won a SINGLE primary with 70% or more, and that was Vermont. All his big wins were in mostly white caucus states. So he might do really well in the Dakotas, but he's going to fail everywhere else.


http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/hillary-clinton-clinches-democratic-nomination-according-to-ap/

In fact, Clinton can still win an elected delegate majority provided that she wins just 215 of the remaining 714 pledged delegates available on Tuesday and in the District of Columbia’s primary next week, or 30 percent. Because Democratic delegate allocations are highly proportional to the vote share in each state, that means she’d need only about 30 percent of the vote. Thus, even if Sanders won every remaining contest 70-30 — by 40 percentage points — he’d still only roughly tie Clinton in pledged delegates and even then would very probably still trail her in the popular vote.

There are not many plausible arrangements under which Sanders would have become the Democratic nominee. He’s been aided by caucuses, which have much lower voter participation. He’d trail even if all states had open primaries, which are generally favorable to Sanders. If the Democratic race were contested under Republican rules, with no superdelegates but winner-take-all delegate allocations in states such as Florida and Ohio, Clinton would have clinched the nomination long ago. Clinton has won in those states where the turnout demographics most closely resemble those of the Democratic Party as a whole.

So it’s not just that Sanders can only win if a huge number of superdelegates flip their vote to him.2 He can win only if a huge number of superdelegates who have committed to Clinton flip their vote against her, despite her having won a clear majority of votes and elected delegates, thereby overturning the popular will.

[LuvLoogie]

52. The Metric for the winner Primary in a two-way race is who has the majority of delegates.

Bernie's argument to persuade the supers goes from being met with polite skepticism to outride ridicule once Hillary reaches 2026 pledged delegates. That goal should appear to have been met by 1/2 hour after the polls closing in California, if not sooner.

California is not the "Superbowl." The Presidential Primary is a "Tour de France." Hillary has worn the Yellow Jersey for most of the Race and is way ahead in Time.

[TwilightZone]

13. The PPI poll has some obvious math errors. 538 is treating it as an outlier.

290 White, 134 Latino, 125 Other, 549 Total

Whites: 47/41 Hillary +6
Latinos: 52/43 Hillary +9

"Other" would have to be heavily Sanders to get to 46/44 overall, at least 60/40 or higher. The poll doesn't provide a breakdown, but there's no way Sanders is beating Clinton 60/40 with African Americans and Asians, who make up most of California's non-white/non-Latino 20%.

The crosstabs also don't match up. Household income, for example, matches, but the totals for college/noncollege show Hillary +5. Errors like this exist in many of the totals. They vary from the +2 indicated in the total to +7 or higher.

538 is basically treating it as an outlier, giving it less than 20% the weighting of the SurveyUSA poll from the same timeframe, which shows Hillary up 57/39.

Link to poll data: http://www.ppic.org/content/pubs/other/Crosstabs_LikelyVoters0516.pdf

[pnwmom]

57. You're right. Those are very strange numbers. n/t

[Renew Deal]

17. That 2 point poll was questionable at best.

California is shaping up just like NY. But it doesn't matter anyway. Hillary will have won the nomination before polls even close.

[KingFlorez]

26. Apparently it is. Sanders people are trying to have vote by mail ballots thrown out

http://abcnews.go.com/Politics/bernie-sanders-supporters-file-emergency-injunction-calif-primary/story?id=39419096

[ucrdem]

28. #Berniegohomealready

[R B Garr]

40. Wow!! They wanted to leave the party in a snit and make a big statement,

but when that didn't work out because of their own error, they want the "Establishment" to bail them out via a lawsuit!

Holy crap, the gimmicks are never-ending with this group.

[LenaBaby61]

30. The NY Times....

IS running with this statistically flawed poll now.

About 17 very recent polls from the state of California have shown that Bernie Sanders isn't leading Hillary Clinton anywhere in the state of California. Yes nothing in life is set in stone, let alone a state poll. However, it would be crazy to believe that ALL of those newer polls are wrong and that this poll with it's many statistical flaws is correct.

[senz]

32. Hill Folk are fighting this tooth and nail. They are afraid, as they should be.

Thanks for the excellent information, imagine2015!

[frylock]

37. Gee, no shit?

What do you think CHAIRGHAZI!!! was all about?

[snowy owl]

48. Email issue trickling down...still it is a closed primary.

Bernie's got a lot to make up. Can he win that big in a closed primary?

[Amorka]

53. Kicked

For embarrassment purposes on June 7th.

[senz]

58. A big win for Sanders in CA would have wiped out Clinton's pledged delegate lead.

California has 475 delegates and on June 6th, Hill was ahead by only 286 delegates.

And that is probably why the AP declared Hillary the "winner" the night of June 6th before California and five other states had their primaries the next day -- hoping to suppress voter turnout.

A campaign that plays that way does not deserve to win. Does not deserve to win.