If I were a typical Democratic Party Super Delegate

[Tom Rinaldo]

I think this is where I would be at now. Most likely, if I were typical, I would both be supporting Clinton and also resistant to nominating Sanders for President. I would have assumed until now that Clinton both had the nomination in the bag and that she would fairly easily defeat Donald Trump in the Fall. Now I would be just starting to question the latter assumption, in light of what I once dismissed as a mere witch hunt showing some signs of possibly turning into a legitimate scandal. I would most likely not be convinced there's much in the way of real fire behind all the smoke, but the thought at least would be crossing my mind; what if there is?

I don't expect any Super Delegates to decouple from the Clinton bandwagon now. They still both hope and believe that Hillary has or soon will weather the worst of any storms associated with use of her private email account at State. But the clock is ticking on the Convention and some contingency planning may now be in order, very quietly.

Her Super Delegate supporters won't want to do anything publicly to undermine Hillary, first and foremost because they still expect her to be our next President. No hints of any possibly anxiety will be visible before the California Primary at the earliest (if ever) - they still want her to win there and if possible win big. There is no downside from their perspective to holding firm for Hillary because even if Clinton over exceeds expectations on that day Super Delegates will continue to hold the keys to her potential nomination, and they could still lock that gate in Philadelphia if Hillary started to go down in flames.

My best guess about a typical Democratic Super Delegate is that they like Hilary, and clearly still want her as the nominee - and they would rather avoid Bernie getting the nomination instead if Hilary self destructed. The best way to avoid the latter is to stand firm for Clinton now and deny Sanders as many delegates as possible heading into the Convention. The real test will be during the time window after the close of voting and before the Convention opens. Will there then be any credible rumors of behind the scenes talk about a Biden, Warren, or Kerry emerging as a "consensus" alternative to Hillary Clinton should her prospects in the fall by then seem gravely wounded?

[Blue Meany]

1. I would tend to agree, but there is some difference between

those who are office holders, and want help from the candidate they expect to win (and also don't want to get on her black list) and those who are just party activists. Among the latter--just ordinary DNC members--about 10% supported Bernie last time I checked and a large percentage were uncommitted. With the exception perhaps of the candidates for whom Bernie is raising funds, I think Hillary will hold on to the office holders (and almost all are committed to her). Her support among the DNC members is not as solid, but still is strong. All-in-all, I think the only way she would lose this support would be from a scandal or indictment or both, and even these would be no guarantee, since they can be adjudicated and spun many different ways.

[Tom Rinaldo]

2. It would take at least a sense of a scandal mushrooming

I think nothing short of that would crack her core SD support. And assuming she wins the majority of pledged delegates which is highly probable, it makes sense that it would take a whole lot to make enough SD's peel away to deny Clinton the nomination.

But for the first time, with the release of the internal State Department investigation, I have started to reconsider my earlier opinion that nothing short of an actual indictment could do that. Possibly an escalating scandal could be enough if it hits her numbers hard enough. It's not there yet and may well never reach that, but the story line keeps getting messier.

If that were to happen I expect a lot to start happening behind the scenes, but not before the primaries are over. As you said, should Clinton start unraveling there are some non office holding SD's who could move to Sanders, while others would rather find a third option - a mini "Never Sanders" movement so to speak. This of course is all highly speculative, but in the event of the above scenario I think a "Never Sanders" movement would end up being about as successful as the "Never Trump" movement was on the Republican side.

[GreenPartyVoter]

7. Agreed

[Garrett78]

3. That's one of the more rational outlooks I've seen expressed on DU.

I suspect most superdelegates aren't really the least bit worried. Annoyed, perhaps, but not worried.

[geek tragedy]

4. typical superdelegate is eager to get the entire party bashing Trump and

working towards a common cause.

Clinton, as the clear and decisive winner of the primary voting, is the nominee, and that's their reality.

[brooklynite]

5. Several of my friends are SuperDelegates...

...they're sticking with Clinton, AND they're not pondering the fantasy outcome of a Clinton indictment.

[Tom Rinaldo]

6. That's not that far from my expectations

I wouldn't expect any of them to reconsider changing their position unless we were now just starting to see the unraveling of Hillary's fortunes and it continually got worse, to a significant extent, from here. You don't believe that will happen, and they don't either. I think the odds are still against that happening, so I can accept that they won't lose any sleep over it unless it does.

[Blue Meany]

8. Well, if a scandal is going to break I hope it does so really soon...

That would give Bernie a chance to get enough pledged delegates to tie Hillary, and make the outcome from SD's more legitimate. If it happens after the Convention, we'd likely be saluting President Trump. In any case, if Hillary is elected, she'll be facing immediate hearings on emails, leaks of classified information and how they may have affected counter-terror operations, Clinton Foundation, rogue foreign policy operations, rogue intelligence operations, and, of course, the central issue of the election: Benghazi.

[Tom Rinaldo]

9. Unless Trump really self destructs and Dems regain both houses of Congress

If Republicans control any chamber they have the power to launch hearings and they would. Full Democratic control would shut that down.

All I ask of the political gods now is that the FBI issues it's report before the Democratic Convention. If there's nothing fine, move on. I will unite against Trump behind any Democratic nominee when the time comes, but I don't want any gut wrenching October surprises that could throw the Presidency to Trump, unlikely as many here seem to think that would be. I don't want to test that hypothesis.

[bjo59]

10. I don't know if it's so much that all of them like Hillary Clinton but it's certain that most of

them know which side their bread is buttered on and won't do anything that could fly back and hit them in the face if she retains the power that she and Bill Clinton have accrued over the years.