Flashback to May, 2008: McCain Leads Obama

[RandySF]

Clinton has been running better versus John McCain than Obama in the Gallup tracking general election trial heats for the last four days, though McCain has the edge over each Democrat. Registered voters currently prefer McCain to Clinton by 46%-45% and McCain to Obama by 47%-42%. -- Jeff Jones



http://www.gallup.com/poll/106981/gallup-daily-obama-49-clinton-45.aspx

[democrattotheend]

1. I pointed that out too

I do NOT think that current polls alone should be enough to override the primary results.

However, a big scandal is a different story. I don't think too many here would disagree that if John Edwards had won the primary in 2008, the superdelegates would have been right not to nominate him after the scandal broke.

[Garrett78]

2. Carter led Reagan, Dukakis led Bush, Bush led Clinton and so on.

I've pointed this out time and time again because people continue to insist on this notion that hypothetical general election match-up polls are worth a damn.

If DU has taught us anything, it's that peeps are gonna believe what peeps wanna believe. And there's no accountability, which is why you see one straw man argument after another after another.

[Station to Station]

7. Yep. To me, Clinton echoes HW Bush

She's a rather unexciting continuity candidate; all that needs to be known about her is out in the open. People would LIKE a credible alternative. Therefore, that this point in time she is struggling to pull away from the Republican. Indeed, against a strong GOP candidate I would be severely worried about the White House right now and, like Bush, think that re-election will be a struggle.

Sanders is, like Dukakis at the time, an unknown quantity for the wider public; the people who don't really pay attention to politics until summer begins to wane.

To them, in a general election match-up he's Generic Dem - they may have heard some soundbites here and there, but he is for all intents and purposes Generic Not Donald Trump, and that is a vote winner.

[Ash_F]

3. How were the trends though?

Clinton is trending down.

Was Obama trending down at that time?

I think he was trending up, if I recall correctly. Don't have the data.

[RandySF]

4. He trended down, then up, then down again

Obama even had a net unfavorably in May. He led most of the summer and lost his convention bump right after the Palin announcement. He trailed McCain again after the GOP convention. Obama regained the lead in Srptember and never looked back.

[Ash_F]

5. Net unfavorability is pretty crazy considering he had no baggage like Clinton.

[RandySF]

6. It was a nasty primary

People tend to be sore at the end of a contentious Orinary. Clinton, by the way, had high favorables as Sec of State.