Sat May 28, 2016, 04:49 PM

Garrett78 (10,721 posts)

A question for those who think Trump will defy the consensus and win in November.

Outside of the DU bubble, there's a pretty broad consensus that Clinton is a heavy favorite come November. But many DU posts suggest that Trump will not only win but that he'll win with ease.

So, I'm curious, which traditionally blue states and which swing states do those folks foresee Trump winning?

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206 replies	Author	Time	Post
A question for those who think Trump will defy the consensus and win in November. (Original post)	Garrett78	May 2016	OP
I think she starts with a considerable advantage but I think she could easily lose	cali	May 2016	#1
I suspect Clinton will win all 3 of those.	Garrett78	May 2016	#2
You asked.	cali	May 2016	#4
I did, and I appreciate your response.	Garrett78	May 2016	#6
Garrett78—No Republican can pull together a winning map without both Florida and Ohio	CobaltBlue	May 2016	#141
Agreed. I don't see Trump or any Republican reaching 270 w/out both of those states.	Garrett78	May 2016	#148
Garrett78—Not likely	CobaltBlue	May 2016	#160
No, it's not likely that Clinton can win without either FL or OH.	Garrett78	May 2016	#161
Garrett78—I think we agree	CobaltBlue	May 2016	#174
here is a way, not likely but is in the realm of possibilty	AntiBank	May 2016	#170
I do appreciate your replies in this thread.	Garrett78	May 2016	#171
if Trump is going to win, he will take OH, I doubt he wins MI, and he absolutely needs	AntiBank	May 2016	#172
OH+CO+VA+NC alone would't be enough.	Garrett78	May 2016	#175
agreed, if all the states you listed went that way Clinton wins 276-262, flip just WI TRump wins 272	AntiBank	May 2016	#185
Make Florida blue and I pretty much agree.	Garrett78	May 2016	#186
you and I are basically in agreement, NC and FL were my 2 hardest to give to Trump	AntiBank	May 2016	#188
Some other possibilities:	Garrett78	May 2016	#190
If those go Blue we are looking at 1984 in reverse	AntiBank	May 2016	#192
I wouldn't bet on it due to Clinton being so polarizing but it's not out of the realm of possibility	Garrett78	May 2016	#193
AntiBank—No. Think of states' estimated partisan identifications	CobaltBlue	May 2016	#184
yes, I agree, I was just posting basically the only theoretical way it could happen, I give it less	AntiBank	May 2016	#189
CNN had a map on this morning... In addition to FL, also VA and MI and CA, couldn't make out the	JudyM	May 2016	#3
Trump's going to win CA?	Garrett78	May 2016	#5
This may be it.	JudyM	May 2016	#8
That piece is about where Trump thinks he can win. I'm not asking what Trump thinks.	Garrett78	May 2016	#13
The folks who think Trump is going to win...	Blanks	May 2016	#183
Yeah, hypothetical general election match-up polls are historically worthless.	Garrett78	May 2016	#187
I think Trump is going to lose red states...	Blanks	May 2016	#203
I think that's certainly more likely than Clinton losing blue states.	Garrett78	May 2016	#206
Did you even read that- it is hilarious. Trump is full	bettyellen	May 2016	#137
+1	Garrett78	May 2016	#139
The left coast will	MFM008	May 2016	#153
Oregon	sacto95834	May 2016	#191
[ Never mind. ]	CobaltBlue	May 2016	#142
See posts #8, #13 and #137.	Garrett78	May 2016	#143
Do you think Trump is going to win California?	DemocratSinceBirth	May 2016	#7
No*	sacto95834	May 2016	#195
Trump won't be winning California, that isn't even a remote possibility.	braddy	May 2016	#25
braddy—It would take a landslide in the U.S. Popular Vote	CobaltBlue	May 2016	#177
Under current demographic shifts, Texas will flip before California does.	Garrett78	May 2016	#178
This message was self-deleted by its author	CobaltBlue	May 2016	#194
We have Pete Wilson to thank....	sacto95834	May 2016	#196
I could see her losing	ibegurpard	May 2016	#9
Thanks for your response.	Garrett78	May 2016	#16
And VA.	JudyM	May 2016	#26
You could use the google	nadinbrzezinski	May 2016	#10
Google won't tell me why DU posters think what they think.	Garrett78	May 2016	#14
I amgiving you an answer	nadinbrzezinski	May 2016	#17
But you aren't answering. It's not a gotcha question. It's very straightforward.	Garrett78	May 2016	#19
I gave you an answer	nadinbrzezinski	May 2016	#27
I'm not asking about anyone's strategy.	Garrett78	May 2016	#31
And I already told you that the dynamics this year	nadinbrzezinski	May 2016	#32
It may be hard, but it's not impossible. It's just a prediction, not a sworn affidavit.	Garrett78	May 2016	#39
My prediction was that he woudl be the nominee and could get the full enchilada	nadinbrzezinski	May 2016	#41
"Not very conventional routes" implies this is more complicated than it really is.	Garrett78	May 2016	#43
Continue to think this is a normal year	nadinbrzezinski	May 2016	#44
When someone dodges a simple, straightforward question	skepticscott	May 2016	#76
Yep. But some managed to answer my question, so that's good.	Garrett78	May 2016	#123
Or some of us are tired of warning	nadinbrzezinski	May 2016	#166
Warn all you want	skepticscott	May 2016	#180
Mic drop.	Garrett78	May 2016	#181
After more than a few conversations	nadinbrzezinski	May 2016	#182
If you don't like what people are posting in this link why don't you put up a poll. That will limit	JudyM	May 2016	#29
The question isn't really suited for a poll.	Garrett78	May 2016	#34
Ohio, Florida. and maybe New Jersey and Michigan	yeoman6987	May 2016	#47
Honestly	MFM008	May 2016	#155
Many keep dismissing Trump, yet he keeps winning. Trump, is not a politician, he's	RKP5637	May 2016	#58
I am going to use the word I have used in the past	nadinbrzezinski	May 2016	#63
Trump is a monster of the Republican Party's making.	Garrett78	May 2016	#66
Well, but winning against who?	skepticscott	May 2016	#77
Agree. The game changes after those 16	saltpoint	May 2016	#82
Kasich, was IMO the most sane one of the group from outward appearances. n/t	RKP5637	May 2016	#87
Trump's wins have been in the Republican	saltpoint	May 2016	#81
Definitely!!! My hunch is he will look/act/sound like an absolute fool in the GE, a fish out of	RKP5637	May 2016	#90
I'm on board with that, RKP5637, and I'm	saltpoint	May 2016	#91
Also, he's used to generally holding/pulling all the strings and having those at his beckon	RKP5637	May 2016	#93
Bam. You are nailing the lad at all extremities.	saltpoint	May 2016	#94
Thanks for the link! n/t	RKP5637	May 2016	#95
That shouldn't be an article	MFM008	May 2016	#156
Yep, Trump's success says more about the state of the Republican Party than anything else.	Garrett78	May 2016	#100
Agree, Garrett. And what it's	saltpoint	May 2016	#116
Well, the people in this country were dumb enough to put in ...	ebayfool	May 2016	#11
Demographics are much different today.	Garrett78	May 2016	#15
Of which states - I have not a clue! My response is based on people in general.	ebayfool	May 2016	#42
That Trump has any support at all is certainly disheartening, if not surprising.	Garrett78	May 2016	#45
ebayfool—Lots of people aren't familiar with the map (and they don't need to be). But…	CobaltBlue	May 2016	#150
You sure did! I enjoyed the read, as well!	ebayfool	May 2016	#173
ebayfool—Thank you for mentioning your county. (I'll tell you mine—and I have more to say….)	CobaltBlue	May 2016	#199
With today's demographics Bush Pere and George W Bush loses.	DemocratSinceBirth	May 2016	#21
Yeah, I think some underestimate how favorable the electoral map is for Dems these days.	Garrett78	May 2016	#54
I don't want to get cocky but it looks like Trump will need > 65% of the white vote to win.	DemocratSinceBirth	May 2016	#62
Romney got 59% of the white vote and still won just 206 electoral college votes.	Garrett78	May 2016	#70
Hillary has a huge problem with male voters who see her as corrupt.	EL34x4	May 2016	#78
The magic number is > 65% of the white vote. Everything else is commentary.	DemocratSinceBirth	May 2016	#83
If the same voter who voted GOP in 2014	EL34x4	May 2016	#84
You can't compare mid term participation with presidential election participation because	DemocratSinceBirth	May 2016	#85
Not to mention the mid-terms don't involve national candidates.	Garrett78	May 2016	#106
Presidential election electorates are much larger and heterogeneous than mid term electorates.	DemocratSinceBirth	May 2016	#110
Good questions	PowerToThePeople	May 2016	#12
The Republicans thank you for your (non)vote.	Chemisse	May 2016	#60
Oh, I will not be a non vote.	PowerToThePeople	May 2016	#96
Ahh. No matter. The result is the same.	Chemisse	May 2016	#99
Trump might win California. Schwarzenegger did.	Dems to Win	May 2016	#18
A Californian won a race for governor via a recall election.	Garrett78	May 2016	#22
Schwarzenegger courted Hispanics here. He didn't call them rapists , murderers , and drug dealers.	DemocratSinceBirth	May 2016	#23
Indiana. n/t	Contrary1	May 2016	#20
Anywhere else?	Garrett78	May 2016	#24
Indiana	DemocratSinceBirth	May 2016	#30
Yeah, as I wrote above, Indiana wouldn't cut it.	Garrett78	May 2016	#36
Ohio, Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania, probably Missouri, Virginia as well.	yourout	May 2016	#28
Well, that would certainly do the trick, assuming the red states stay red.	Garrett78	May 2016	#37
I would add	DVRacer	May 2016	#119
Quite a brain teaser I suspect. nt	BootinUp	May 2016	#33
To their credit, quite a few have, in fact, put forth answers.	Garrett78	May 2016	#49
But none that has dared to answer	skepticscott	May 2016	#80
No, but evidence isn't a big priority on DU.	Garrett78	May 2016	#121
To think this contest is in the bag	pmorlan1	May 2016	#35
Okay, but do you have an answer to my question?	Garrett78	May 2016	#38
Nope	pmorlan1	May 2016	#40
Wisconsin, Michigan, Virginia, PA, Ohio, Florida, New Hampshire, etc...	davidn3600	May 2016	#46
Wowzer.	Garrett78	May 2016	#48
OK you think trump gets a 50	MFM008	May 2016	#157
That was my thought, but at least he put forth an honest answer.	Garrett78	May 2016	#159
The argument is Romney + FL, PA, and MI (nt)	Recursion	May 2016	#50
Those are popular answers in this thread.	Garrett78	May 2016	#52
I agree it's a longshot but he's unpredictable (nt)	Recursion	May 2016	#53
I'm in the Trump Will Lose camp.	saltpoint	May 2016	#51
Yeah, he actually makes Dubya seem articulate and nuanced.	Garrett78	May 2016	#55
True. I thought Dubya was the pure dregs until	saltpoint	May 2016	#57
Imagine meeting up with an arrogant braggart like him at a party.	Chemisse	May 2016	#61
LOL. Yep. I'd be looking around	saltpoint	May 2016	#64
Outside of the DU bubble, there was a pretty broad consensus...	99Forever	May 2016	#56
Which blue states and which swing states do you think he'll win?	Garrett78	May 2016	#65
Doesn't matter.	99Forever	May 2016	#67
Different people are pissed off for different reasons. And have been or years.	Garrett78	May 2016	#69
Been hearing that since Trump announced.	99Forever	May 2016	#71
Again, him winning the nomination says a lot about the Republican Party.	Garrett78	May 2016	#72
Actually it does.	99Forever	May 2016	#73
How does him winning the Clown Car Battle speak to his chances in November?	Garrett78	May 2016	#101
Trump isn't facing a very likely indictment(s) at end of several ongoing FBI investigations.	99Forever	May 2016	#105
But how he does among non-white males is key to this whole discussion.	Garrett78	May 2016	#107
No, actually it isn't.	99Forever	May 2016	#112
Yet you can't say which blue/swing states you think Trump will win.	Garrett78	May 2016	#117
We already went down that road.	99Forever	May 2016	#122
I didn't say it was your job. But it was the point of this thread.	Garrett78	May 2016	#129
He (and Bernie)	forthemiddle	May 2016	#89
Independents and Trump's claim that he's bringing new voters into the fold.	Garrett78	May 2016	#104
Whether he wins or loses depends mostly on whether	DJ13	May 2016	#59
19 states (plus DC) have been won by the Dem candidate in 6 straight presidential elections.	Garrett78	May 2016	#68
Garrett78—Make that 18 (not 19) states.	CobaltBlue	May 2016	#146
It seems WaPo had it wrong.	Garrett78	May 2016	#149
Garrett78—It was in his phrasing.	CobaltBlue	May 2016	#154
Yeah it obviously should have said 18 (plus DC). Oh well.	Garrett78	May 2016	#158
I think there is a very good chance he'll win in my state, New Hampshire.	Vinca	May 2016	#74
Which other blue states and which swing states do you think he'll win?	Garrett78	May 2016	#108
I think he has a chance for Ohio and Florida.	Vinca	May 2016	#133
Florida and Ohio are crucial.	Garrett78	May 2016	#136
Quite honestly, I think our only hope is the Libertarians splitting the vote on the right.	Vinca	May 2016	#144
I don't see any 3rd party candidate impacting the result in any of the states.	Garrett78	May 2016	#152
I think the Libertarians will attract mainstream Republicans.	Vinca	May 2016	#162
If so, that's all the more reason to believe Clinton will win.	Garrett78	May 2016	#164
You left out one inconvenient truth, the GOP is more united.	B Calm	May 2016	#75
More united than when? The GOP establishment is up in arms over Trump being the nominee.	Garrett78	May 2016	#109
It will be on Democrats to make sure Trump is never president, as Michael Moore	Thinkingabout	May 2016	#79
It's Clinton's map to lose	bigwillq	May 2016	#86
They assume everyone hates Hillary as much as they do nt	geek tragedy	May 2016	#88
In late April of this year --	saltpoint	May 2016	#92
So, which blue states and which swing states do you think he'll win?	Garrett78	May 2016	#111
My emphasis was Hillary's weakness related	saltpoint	May 2016	#114
That's pretty much how I see things going, as well.	Garrett78	May 2016	#120
I agree with ^^^	MFM008	May 2016	#168
its easy to figure out imo	restorefreedom	May 2016	#97
Oh no, not this again.	Garrett78	May 2016	#113
hillary can barely keep off bernie except in the south	restorefreedom	May 2016	#126
Your perception is not reality.	Garrett78	May 2016	#134
i believe that states are in play that would not be normally	restorefreedom	May 2016	#198
I'm sure you like your personal reality just fine.	Garrett78	May 2016	#202
I'm not exactly sure who will win, but given the current mood of	Exilednight	May 2016	#98
What?!? The Obama Coalition is the reason she's well on her way to being nominated.	Garrett78	May 2016	#115
the Obama coalition isn't even turning out to the polls. exit polling	Exilednight	May 2016	#145
Do you have a link?	Garrett78	May 2016	#151
what makes you think she's doing well? she's 4 million votes behind where she was in 2008.	Exilednight	May 2016	#200
So, that's a no, you don't have a link to back up your claim. Didn't think so.	Garrett78	May 2016	#201
Here's over 40 links. All you need to do is look at exit polling for every state and look for the	Exilednight	May 2016	#204
That's such an epic logic fail that I don't even know how to respond.	Garrett78	May 2016	#205
I doubt he will win-he will take red states	larkrake	May 2016	#102
I simply think taking victory for granted is a bad idea	Scootaloo	May 2016	#103
I agree, but that isn't the question.	Garrett78	May 2016	#118
"Many"? Like who?	Scootaloo	May 2016	#124
You can hardly walk hrough GDP without tripping over a poster who says Trump will beat Clinton.	Garrett78	May 2016	#132
I believe he will win NC	ms liberty	May 2016	#125
But NC wouldn't be enough for Trump to reach 270.	Garrett78	May 2016	#130
if he can't win NC	ms liberty	May 2016	#138
NC being a swing state is a recent development.	Garrett78	May 2016	#140
ms liberty—That is correct.	CobaltBlue	May 2016	#147
Totally agree	marions ghost	May 2016	#131
Garrett78—The path for Donald Trump to win a 2016 Republican pickup of the presidency…	CobaltBlue	May 2016	#127
I'm afraid of Pa., Oh. & Mi. IF all the very angry ex-steel workers BELIEVE	napi21	May 2016	#128
She's going to easily win, and I think Bernie and Busters really know this	gollygee	May 2016	#135
here is a scenario map	AntiBank	May 2016	#163
Those maps show the best case scenario for Trump. There won't be a Trump landslide.	Garrett78	May 2016	#167
here is the best case for Trump (within reason)	AntiBank	May 2016	#176
It's up to the media	Buzz cook	May 2016	#165
Gerrymandering and favorable demographics allow the GOP to win congressional seats.	Garrett78	May 2016	#169
Denigrating our nominee is the last resort...	beachbumbob	May 2016	#179
Scenario Maps of up to +10 national shifts: Trump and Hillary	CobaltBlue	May 2016	#197

Response to Garrett78 (Original post)

Sat May 28, 2016, 04:52 PM

cali (114,904 posts)

1. I think she starts with a considerable advantage but I think she could easily lose

Florida and New Hampshire and possibly Ohio.

A question for those who think Trump will defy the consensus and win in November.

1. I think she starts with a considerable advantage but I think she could easily lose

2. I suspect Clinton will win all 3 of those.

4. You asked.

6. I did, and I appreciate your response.

141. Garrett78—No Republican can pull together a winning map without both Florida and Ohio

148. Agreed. I don't see Trump or any Republican reaching 270 w/out both of those states.

160. Garrett78—Not likely

161. No, it's not likely that Clinton can win without either FL or OH.

174. Garrett78—I think we agree

170. here is a way, not likely but is in the realm of possibilty

171. I do appreciate your replies in this thread.

172. if Trump is going to win, he will take OH, I doubt he wins MI, and he absolutely needs

175. OH+CO+VA+NC alone would't be enough.

185. agreed, if all the states you listed went that way Clinton wins 276-262, flip just WI TRump wins 272

186. Make Florida blue and I pretty much agree.

188. you and I are basically in agreement, NC and FL were my 2 hardest to give to Trump

190. Some other possibilities:

192. If those go Blue we are looking at 1984 in reverse

193. I wouldn't bet on it due to Clinton being so polarizing but it's not out of the realm of possibility

184. AntiBank—No. Think of states' estimated partisan identifications

189. yes, I agree, I was just posting basically the only theoretical way it could happen, I give it less

3. CNN had a map on this morning... In addition to FL, also VA and MI and CA, couldn't make out the

5. Trump's going to win CA?

8. This may be it.

13. That piece is about where Trump thinks he can win. I'm not asking what Trump thinks.

183. The folks who think Trump is going to win...

187. Yeah, hypothetical general election match-up polls are historically worthless.

203. I think Trump is going to lose red states...

206. I think that's certainly more likely than Clinton losing blue states.

137. Did you even read that- it is hilarious. Trump is full

139. +1

153. The left coast will

191. Oregon

142. [ Never mind. ]

143. See posts #8, #13 and #137.

7. Do you think Trump is going to win California?

195. No*

25. Trump won't be winning California, that isn't even a remote possibility.

177. braddy—It would take a landslide in the U.S. Popular Vote

178. Under current demographic shifts, Texas will flip before California does.

196. We have Pete Wilson to thank....

9. I could see her losing

16. Thanks for your response.

26. And VA.

10. You could use the google

14. Google won't tell me why DU posters think what they think.

17. I amgiving you an answer

19. But you aren't answering. It's not a gotcha question. It's very straightforward.

27. I gave you an answer

31. I'm not asking about anyone's strategy.

32. And I already told you that the dynamics this year

39. It may be hard, but it's not impossible. It's just a prediction, not a sworn affidavit.

41. My prediction was that he woudl be the nominee and could get the full enchilada

43. "Not very conventional routes" implies this is more complicated than it really is.

44. Continue to think this is a normal year

76. When someone dodges a simple, straightforward question

123. Yep. But some managed to answer my question, so that's good.

166. Or some of us are tired of warning

180. Warn all you want

181. Mic drop.

182. After more than a few conversations

29. If you don't like what people are posting in this link why don't you put up a poll. That will limit

34. The question isn't really suited for a poll.

47. Ohio, Florida. and maybe New Jersey and Michigan

155. Honestly

58. Many keep dismissing Trump, yet he keeps winning. Trump, is not a politician, he's

63. I am going to use the word I have used in the past

66. Trump is a monster of the Republican Party's making.

77. Well, but winning against who?

82. Agree. The game changes after those 16

87. Kasich, was IMO the most sane one of the group from outward appearances. n/t

81. Trump's wins have been in the Republican

90. Definitely!!! My hunch is he will look/act/sound like an absolute fool in the GE, a fish out of

91. I'm on board with that, RKP5637, and I'm

93. Also, he's used to generally holding/pulling all the strings and having those at his beckon

94. Bam. You are nailing the lad at all extremities.

95. Thanks for the link! n/t

156. That shouldn't be an article

100. Yep, Trump's success says more about the state of the Republican Party than anything else.