I think the Sanders campaign is putting the cart before the horse with their SD argument.

[NCTraveler]

If my math is correct, they need 40% of PD's to have enough for SD's to matter. Outside of a true brokered convention which we all know won't happen. At the same time we know with certainty that Clinton will hit that mark.

With current polling is it a guarantee Sanders can even get there?

My math might suck as well.

[JonLeibowitz]

1. Sanders is already at 40% of PDs, and should increase with the CA results.

I think he is at about 44-46% of PDs (so far).

So yes, it is a pretty much guarantee that Sanders can get there.

[NCTraveler]

3. He needs 40% of the remaining, correct? Nt

[JonLeibowitz]

4. Probably less than that -- If he is at 46% he'll need much less, perhaps 25-30% of PDs to hit 40%

[NCTraveler]

6. 781 PD's outstanding.

Sanders needs 304 PD'S to put himself in a position to reach the threshold if every single SD were to vote for him.

I'm not sure where the second part of your numbers are coming from.

[JonLeibowitz]

8. Sanders is at 1500 / 4051 PDs, per Wikipedia.

40% of 4051 is 1620. 121 out of 781 PDs remaining (your figure) is 15.4% of remaining PDs to achieve 40%.

The 25% was a guess, and apparently a guess that was much too high.

[NCTraveler]

13. Ok. You seem to be looking at something different.

2383 for the nomination. 582 Super Delegates. PD's needed to get to the point where a person could win on the first ballot if every SD went their way would be 1801. Sanders is currently at 1497, 304 short of 1801 PD's. According to my math that means he would need 40% of the remaining 781 PD's to get to that 1801 number.

I'm getting my numbers from the NYT.

[JonLeibowitz]

14. Hmm, I am getting my numbers from Wikipedia which claims there are 715 SDs

That would explain the difference, perhaps. You say 582 but that is only the SDs which have declared an allegiance so far. Many have remained neutral. The NYT even says:

Unpledged Democratic party leaders who are free to support any candidate. The majority of the 714 superdelegates have declared support for Mrs. Clinton, though they could switch candidates if she were to lose the lead in pledged delegates, which are awarded based on election results.

So I think my numbers are correct.

I will also note that the NYT is misleading in that the SDs can switch for any reason, not just if HRC loses the lead in pledged delegates (though this is highly unlikely)

[NCTraveler]

16. Thank you so much.

You are correct. I pride myself on math and it didn't seem right. My SD numbers were simply the addition of those already "pledged".

Thank you Jon.

If what I was seeing was accurate I knew it would have been talked about.

This is how we do the books for the Clinton Foundation.

[JonLeibowitz]

17. No problem. At least we can agree on the math, if not issues. :-)

[NCTraveler]

18. I can list ten things off the top of my head..

That you and I will one hundred percent agree with.

[BlueStateLib]

19. More like 67.3% of the Remaining Pledged delegates needed for majority

Pledged Delegets Available 4051
Pledged delegates Majority 2026
Pledged delegates Remaining 783
Sanders Pledged delegates 1499
SBS Pledged delegates Needed
for majority 527
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/democratic_delegate_count.html

[Demsrule86]

5. He needs way more...and he own't win by 40 points anywhere...and you forget Jersey.

[JonLeibowitz]

7. I think you should re-read this entire thread to get a clue what is being discussed.

Nobody is talking about whether he can hit 50%+1 PDs; the topic is if he can hit 40% of PDs. Try to keep up?

[HerbChestnut]

2. Pretty sure that PD's are split 54-46 right now.

So yes, he will have the 40% of PD's required for SD's to matter.

[Demsrule86]

10. Bernie nees about 68%

and he won't get it...not sure he can win California...very diverse.

[JonLeibowitz]

12. Irrelevant and off topic post.

[HerbChestnut]

15. He needs 68% to have a majority of PD's

The OP was asking whether he could get 40%.

[Demsrule86]

9. She needs 17% of remaining delegates

to win the nomination...she gets enough out of New jersey...and is the nominee before California returns come in.

[JonLeibowitz]

11. Your posts are completely irrelevant to the topic of this OP.

The point is whether an argument to the superdelegates even makes sense, i.e. if he can hit 40% of total PDs. The answer is an unqualified "Yes" -- he is absolutely expected to hit the required number. See post #7, which you have not addressed.

Note that this will not make him the nominee: Clinton will still win.

[Armstead]

20. He won't win all of them over -- But he has every right to try in a democracy

Most of the SD's announced their allegiance to Clinton before the primary even started, with no information available as to how the primary would unfold, such as the unexpected popularity of Sanders, those, er, pesky e-mails...etc.

They were just for Clinton, either because of personal loyalty, favors,desire to be "part of the winning team," er, fear of Clintonian reprisals -- and the embedded memes of her re-determined "electability" and that she was the defacto candidate already...plus the fact that she is a woman, obviously.....Nor were the decisions of elected politicians based on the preferences of voters in the states they represent.

They are not obligated to stick with that initial decision through thick and thin. They are able to change their minds.....Most of them probably won't. But there is no legal restriction that precludes Sanders from trying.