TPM has it a tie?

[Proud liberal 80]

Obama was +.4 last night and since then there has been PPP O+3, WSJ O+1, Ras tied, Politico tied, and wash post tied. That +.4 should have remained or up a little, not become a tie

[msrizzo]

1. I saw that. Don't understand it. nt

[VirginiaTarheel]

2. WSJ?

[NMDemDist2]

9. Wall Street Journal n/t

[RomneyLies]

3. Oh good grief. They have the EC at O - 303, R - 191, Tossup - 44

The national poll average is 100% meaningless.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

5. And a Really Good O Poll Must Have Dropped Off/nt

[msrizzo]

7. True, that could explain it. nt

[mucifer]

8. Yes, I know. But, doesn't it make you sick that if you live in a non swing state

your vote is meaningless? It really pisses me off that I live in Chicago and have to go canvass in Iowa and Wisconsin because here in IL
we aren't REAL voters.

It also makes me sick that half this country is voting for rmoney.

I know it's just a dream, but I do dream of a day without the electoral college and without citizen's united.

[Proud liberal 80]

12. Yep

All the Dems would have to do is make sure to GOTV in NYC, LA, Chi, Hou, Phil, etc...

[mucifer]

14. Actually, here in Chicago there were some early voting places with long lines.

[msrizzo]

15. Which is good....

Though the popular vote doesn't determine the winner, it would be great if Obama won it by a decent amount to shut up the Repugs. They could use a R popular vote win to further justify their obstructionism in Congress.

[Proud liberal 80]

10. Yes you are right

But the national polls are what the media uses to drive the narrative

[TroyD]

4. Does TPM still include the week old Gallup poll in its average?

That's what RCP has been doing. They have a Romney (+5) poll from Gallup from a week ago in there which is distorting the average.

What is TPM doing?

[sufrommich]

6. God, I can't wait for this to be over. My nervous

system can't take much more.

[earthside]

11. This polling silliness.

I don't know where this averaging polls got so popular and accepted, but it is silly.

How do you get a reasonable snapshot of public opinion by averaging one-time national polls with daily tracking polls?

How do you get a reliable measure by averaging a large sample poll from a longtime, reputable poller like Marist with small sample, biased pollster like Rasmussen?

So, look at the list at TPM-Polltracker ( http://polltracker.talkingpointsmemo.com/contests/us-president-12 ) and what do you see? Obama leading or tied in every single national poll over the past seven days, except an ABC poll.

I hope after this election we get some good study and analysis of this poll averaging phenomenon ... because my hunch is that it is way off.

[nc4bo]

13. Or are subject to partisan or 1%er manipulation so are untrustworthy.

If the manipulation is this obvious than the polls themselves should be considered unacceptably inaccurate and completely worthless.

Of course the polls are manipulated in the same way that our media is responsible for manipulating public perception.

[msrizzo]

16. Now Obama is up 1.1. Phwew. nt.