Hillary will not "clinch" the nomination unless Bernie drops out or the convention floor vote

[morningfog]

Hillary will not "clinch" the nomination unless Bernie drops out or the convention floor vote, whichever comes first.

She will undoubtedly secure the majority of the pledged delegates next week. And, as of now, enjoys the support of enough super delegates to bridge the gap to the number to clinch. Thus, she will become the "presumptive nominee" on June 7. Only if/when Bernie drops out will she have clinched it. Alternatively, she would clinch if/when she receives 2,383 delegate votes on the convention floor.

But Bernie is taking to the convention and for good reason. Not the least of which is the State OIG report release, which publicly raised serious questions and concerns about Hillary as a nominee and her inherent liability to the party. My hope it the FBI wraps up and reports prior to the convention in order for the party to make an informed decision, one way or the other.

To be clear, I hope that Hillary is not implicated in any criminal liability and I hope none of her staff are. However, the OIG report made clear that assuming there was no wrongdoing is erroneous. It remains an open and serious question.

[SFnomad]

1. Secretary Clinton cliches the nomination on June 7th ... everything else is #BernieMath n/t

[ucrdem]

6. Yep.

One week.

[senz]

33. She cannot reach 2383 pledged delegates on June 7.

Hillary has 1771 pledged delegates. Bernie has 1487 pledged delegates (284 fewer than Hill).

Hillary needs 612 more pledged delegates to get to 2383.

There are only 781 pledged delegates left in the remaining nine primaries:

Virgin Islands, PR, CA Mont NJ, NM, ND SD, DC

Even if Hill does well in several states, she will not be able to reach 2383.

Therefore she will need super delegates to get over the top, and there is a possibility Bernie will have done well enough (as well as polling far better against Trump) that super delegates may choose him.

[SFnomad]

41. Secretary Clinton doesn't have to reach 2383 pledged delegates, ever ... that's #BernieMath

[bkkyosemite]

2. Nope. Not in pledged delegates.

[COLGATE4]

3. The OIG report was a mild hand slap, nothing more.

Colin Powell didn't care enough about the issue to even respond to the IG when asked for documents.

[morningfog]

9. The OIG said she violated the law. And, worse, it referenced four emails

which HIllary did not provide to State, were public records and which she apparently destroyed after self-selecting them as "personal."

At a minimum, that is what the OIG found.

[COLGATE4]

12. There was no violation of any law. She may have violated Department

of State regulations but that's a minor offense with no penalty attached to it.

[morningfog]

13. State regulations implementing statutory law are laws.

She violated the law. Yes, those are administrative law, but laws nonetheless.

The question of any criminal violations by her and her inner circle remains an open question. The FBI is working on it. The OIG report certainly exposed a possible felony, destruction of federal records.

[COLGATE4]

14. What are the penalties for these admin law violations?

[JonLeibowitz]

30. Really high bar you've set there for your candidate.

[WhiteTara]

37. Soon she will be all Democrats nominee. nt

[COLGATE4]

47. Same as for Colin Powell.

[JonLeibowitz]

48. A republican. How apropos.

[Dem2]

4. "She will undoubtedly secure the majority of the pledged delegates next week"

That will be considered clinched by most.

[geek tragedy]

5. Just like obama didn't clinch the general election until the electoral college voted.

If Bernie refuses to admit he lost, it will be due to ego and character defects, not because there is a question of who will be the nominee.

Team player, or most pathetic sore loser in primary history, his choice.

His dead end supporters will have to process their grief somewhere else after June 14, while the rest of the world moves on.

[beachbum bob]

7. I agree, sanders real nature is being revealed and I gotta say we are dodging a bullet

by not having him as a nominee

[pandr32]

40. Yep!

[morningfog]

8. Obama clinched when Hillary dropped out.

[geek tragedy]

11. Not true. He clinched when he had both the pledged delegate win and overall delegate win.

http://www.dailykos.com/story/2016/5/29/1532358/-What-Does-It-Mean-to-Clinch-the-Nomination-When-Superdelegates-Are-Involved

As many of you are all too painfully aware, the 2008 election brought the issue of superdelegates back into the mainstream. Still, when Obama made the magic number, the papers did not hedge. With a combination of supers and pledged delegates putting him just over the number he needed, Obama was considered the nominee as of June 3rd, 2008. It is also the case that on June 3rd it was a “last minute rush of superdelegates” that put him over that year’s magic number of 2,118.

Senator Barack Obama claimed the Democratic presidential nomination on Tuesday evening, prevailing through an epic battle with Senator Hillary Rodham Clinton in a primary campaign that inspired millions of voters from every corner of America to demand change in Washington.

A last-minute rush of Democratic superdelegates, as well as the results from the final primaries, in Montana and South Dakota, pushed Mr. Obama over the threshold of winning the 2,118 delegates needed to be nominated at the party’s convention in August. The victory for Mr. Obama, the son of a black Kenyan father and a white Kansan mother, broke racial barriers and represented a remarkable rise for a man who just four years ago served in the Illinois Senate. (Source)

Wolf Blitzer broke into a McCain speech to say that Obama had secured the nomination. Note that Obama wins the nomination, incidentally, in part by losing South Dakota. Based on him even placing in that contest it was projected that he would get at least four delegates and win.

Clinton would drop out of the race just three days later.

It really doesn't matter if Sanders or his dead end supporters think she will have clinched it on June 7. Reality will go on with or without them.

[bkkyosemite]

10. "dead end supporters" sick of the insults constant insults.

[findrskeep]

15. They're asleep....they're us before

we woke up. It's easier not to engage. One can't perceive a higher state of consciousness until they experience it too. This is what Bernie is helping to usher in. They'll wake up sooner than they think. But the more they hang onto the old, the harder it will be.

[Reiyuki]

34. "May have been the losing side. Still not convinced it was the wrong one."

Sure it's a Firefly quote, but I think it sums up the opinion of a lot of Bernie fans out there.

[Garrett78]

16. Yep, just like virtually every other time.

There will be a presumptive nominee (Clinton), but nothing is official until the convention (even pledged delegates aren't bound). I don't think anyone really disputes that, even if some choose to equate "presumptive nominee" with "clinching" (because when has a presumptive nominee not been nominated?).

[asuhornets]

17. presumptive nominee = clinched nomination = President of the United States nt

[morningfog]

20. word salad = lack of critical thought = talking bot regurgitating bot nt

[asuhornets]

22. LOL... you lose

[morningfog]

24. LOL....yes, IQ points with every post of yours I read.

In fact, I'll choose to ignore inanity.

[Orsino]

18. Yep. The coming contested convention ought not to frighten her supporters.

She is poised to win that first vote easily.

[Garrett78]

32. I don't think Clinton supporters are frightened.

Annoyed, perhaps. And, as you say, she'll win that first vote easily. I'm not convinced, though, that Sanders won't concede prior to that vote.

[Orsino]

38. A deal is certainly possible which might include concession.

I think it's not happening before the convention.

[Tarc]

19. Most of the media declared the 2008 primary over on May 6th

Russert: We now know the Democratic nominee

NBC’s Tim Russert, analyzing the results of Tuesday’s primaries, says that Sen. Barack Obama will be the Democratic nominee in the 2008 run for the White House.

Like it or not, the media will zero in on the moment Hillary Hits 2,383, counting the superdelegates who have already endorsed her.

[morningfog]

21. Yes, the media will. Everyone will refer to her as the presumptive nominee.

And then, for the first time since super delegates have been used, we will have a floor vote in which their votes matter.

And from June 7 to July 23, there will be many new cycles and stories that we can't predict today.

[asuhornets]

23. I am going to give you your space...

[senz]

44. Staying in until the convention is wisest & most honorable for Bernie.

The uglies are going to try to rip him to pieces for it, but I hope he stays strong.

For this and everything he has done, I honor this man and always will.

He will need our support.

[BobbyDrake]

25. You're clearly confusing "clinching" with "winning." She'll clinch next week, then win @ convention.

[tritsofme]

26. If Bernie wants to continue his quixotic campaign/WeaverDevine Retirement Fund

It won't matter, to anyone.

Hillary will move on to the GE, and all the Berniebros will be like the Japanese soldiers stranded on remote islands, fighting WWII into the 1960s...

[Gomez163]

27. Because Bernie is going to sweet talk 500 superdelegates to switch?

Because he has done such a great job so far in wooing them.

[Gothmog]

28. In every contested primary since adoption of super delegates, the winner is announced based on SDs

Great article on how in every primary contest since the creation of super delegates, the winner was declared the presumptive nominee based on the inclusion of super delegates. http://www.dailykos.com/stories/2016/5/29/1532358/-What-Does-It-Mean-to-Clinch-the-Nomination-When-Superdelegates-Are-Involved

?1464557557

After reading a number of impassioned defenses of why the Democratic presidential nomination should not be called next week on June 7th, I got curious. What’s the history here, since the superdelegates were added to the process? When a Democratic candidate hits the magic number of pledged delegates plus superdelegates, are they the nominee?

The answer: history says the first person to get to the magic number is the presumptive nominee, and says it unambiguously, even if the losers often disagree.

Here’s how it has gone since the superdelegates were added to the process.....

Summary

Anyway, I started this research 12 hours ago to answer a question for myself, so that as everyone on TV is spinning things this way and that on June 7th I have some context. What, if anything, have I learned?

First, most non-incumbent candidates have needed superdelegates to win, and the history of superdelegates has been that once a Democrat hits the magic number and becomes the nominee, superdelegates are more likely to flow to the nominee than from them.

Also, in the history of the superdelegates, they have always ended up supporting the decision of the pledged delegates, and their most important contribution has been to amplify leads of the pledged delegate winner so that they can be assured success on a first ballot, and avoid the sort of messy convention that harms a general campaign.

The major thing I’ve learned is that the press declares, and has always declared, the winner after they hit the magic number, and has done so in far more nebulous circumstances than this. Even in 1984, in which Hart won by a number of other metrics, in which the delegate count was the arbiter, and Mondale announced himself as the nominee, even with 38 percent of the popular vote to Hart’s 36 percent—even then, Hart may have claimed he still had a cunning plan, but no one begrudged Mondale the fact he was, for all intents and purposes, the nominee.

When you think about it, that simply has to happen. Things need to get done, and they need the nominee to do them. Except for Reagan in 1976, who chose a running mate after Gerald Ford was made the nominee, there aren’t a whole lot of non-nominee candidates going to the convention with their own vice president picked out. You get to do that because the numbers say you’re the nominee.

Meeting this number also allows the nominee to do the work of campaigning before the convention, establishing a message, building capacity on the ground, etc.

The press, for its part, has always understood this, from 1984 onward, and has named the nominee (or the “presumptive nominee”) the minute the candidate crosses the line with their combination of pledged and supers, and usually said something to the effect that they had “clinched” the nomination. They did that when Mondale had won far fewer states than Hart. They did that when Dukakis did not have 50 percent of the pledged delegates. They did that when Obama had not won the popular vote (yes, I know, Michigan—I hope we’re still not fighting this?).

This is a well researched article and confirms that the nomination process will be over on Tuesday June 7, 2016 when the results of the New Jersey primary are announced.

Those who do not learn from history are doomed to repeat it.

[firebrand80]

29. I mostly agree with you, except

She officially clinches it at the convention, Bernie dropping out (or "suspending" his campaign) doesn't really have anything to do with when it becomes official.

[NurseJackie]

31. Yes she will. (This is a silly post.)

Just a reworded repeat of the same-old same-old that we've all heard before. Bernie will not be the nominee. Hillary will not be indicted.

To be clear, I hope that Hillary is not implicated in any criminal liability and I hope none of her staff are.

I do not believe this for one second.

[morningfog]

35. I don't give a shit what you believe.

If HIllary or anyone in her staff is indicted, the Dem party and this country is well and truly fucked. You have to agree with that.

It would be the worst possible outcome. WHat I have been saying for months is that HIllary is a liability because of all this. There is nothing partisan about the FBI investigation and recognizing it as a serious liability to her campaign.

I fully expect her to be the nominee and that is why I really and truly hope she comes out clean on this. It's not looking good at the moment though.

[senz]

36. Bernie's supporters want him to stay on to the convention.

Too much is unsettled and too much is at stake.

Just as importantly, Bernie needs to speak for the American people at the Democratic convention before the corrupt and sleazy establishment takes over.

If Donald Trump is a serious candidate, polls show that Hillary cannot beat him.

[DookDook]

39. I agree, and he's doing exactly what he promised, fighting all the way to the convention. eom

[ProgressiveEconomist]

42. "NEW RULES"--You forgot

the needed preface for your alternate reality OP.

The rest of the world realizes that HRC reaches 2383 delegates and clinches the nomination on June 7th. Then it becomes not Bernie vs Hillary, but Bernie versus Obama, Warren, Biden, SEIU, and the entire Obama coalition.

Get ready for "the hook"!

[morningfog]

43. Lol. See you at the floor vote.

[leeroysphitz]

45. There is no way she won't be the nominnee. It is WRITTEN. n/t

[Beacool]

46. Again with this crap???