2016 Postmortem
Related: About this forumOREGON: Clinton - 42% Trump - 44%
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/or/oregon_trump_vs_clinton-5892.htmlNo comment.
Ned_Devine
(3,146 posts)InAbLuEsTaTe
(24,122 posts)Bernie & Elizabeth 2016!!!
grasswire
(50,130 posts)I wonder if the same thing is going on in Washington.
PowerToThePeople
(9,610 posts)Last edited Wed Jun 1, 2016, 12:21 AM - Edit history (1)
Dang...
dubyadiprecession
(5,706 posts)These polls don't matter at this point in time. The conventions haven't even started yet.
chwaliszewski
(1,514 posts)KingFlorez
(12,689 posts)LoverOfLiberty
(1,438 posts)you chose to ignore the other poll that was Clinton 43%, Turmp 32%.
If you think Turmp takes Oregon you aren't very astute.
Viva_La_Revolution
(28,791 posts)reformist2
(9,841 posts)msongs
(67,395 posts)Dem2
(8,168 posts)It's about averages, not cherry picking polls that serve a negative agenda for Democrats. Hillary was +11 in the other poll in OR.
http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/pollster#2016-general-election
Trump's ahead in 2 red states, barely, and he's even behind on average in Arizona!
MohRokTah
(15,429 posts)Republican poll. Those are damned good numbers from that outfit.
Dem2
(8,168 posts)It's embarrassing.
MohRokTah
(15,429 posts)If she's down two in that poll, she's up ten for real!
True.
I was looking at the party preference polls over the past 4 years, only one showed Republicans with a majority. It was a Fox gnews poll.
LenaBaby61
(6,974 posts)That Clout Poll--if I can call it a poll--seems like a right-winged poll, plus from what little I could tell about them, they do a LOT of consulting with Republicans. So uh NO @ the Clout poll
You're also right to say that if that poll says that Hillary is trailing Trump by a few points, she may really be up by double-digits like you're saying.
geek tragedy
(68,868 posts)dlwickham
(3,316 posts)why not report the poll showing Hillary with an 11 point lead; 3.3 margin of error and a 902 sample of likely voters instead of the poll with Trump ahead by 2 with a margin of 3.8 and a sample of only 657 likely voters
woolldog
(8,791 posts)And providing a link if people want more than the most recent. People are free to weight polls and argue against them however they wish.
LoverOfLiberty
(1,438 posts)The 16th can't come soon enough.
woolldog
(8,791 posts)Will state polls that don't show Clinton beating Trump become verboten on the 16th?
geek tragedy
(68,868 posts)and 40% of black voters. The same pollster ran Birther polls not terribly long ago.
LenaBaby61
(6,974 posts)JOKE of a poll
auntpurl
(4,311 posts)are likely to be frowned upon, yes. Because they show a clear agenda in posting them.
Barack_America
(28,876 posts)...Bernie needs to drop out right now.
Flip a coin.
Sorry, "Hillary is a shitty candidate" is not an option.
John Poet
(2,510 posts)woolldog
(8,791 posts)LenaBaby61
(6,974 posts)"odd" cross tabs and polls very much to the right it's not.
In the most recent Fox Poll from around May 19th, it mentioned that Bernie Sanders had a 4 point lead over Trump 46-42% in a GE match-up--down from a 52-39% lead only a month earlier.
Do you honestly believe the black bolded below?
The Fox survey also polled voters on a general election between Trump and Sanders, and found Sanders leads Trump 46% to 42%---that's down from Bernie's lead in Fox's April poll, where the Vermont senator led Trump, 52% to 39%.
http://www.cnn.com/2016/05/19/politics/donald-trump-hillary-clinton-fox-news-poll/
cheapdate
(3,811 posts)When Hillary (or Bernie) gets the nomination those numbers will flip hard.
MFM008
(19,805 posts)total crap. Oregon. Washington. California all blue. Very blue. This is garbage.
Zambero
(8,964 posts)The other state poll has Hillary up +11.
LizetteWest
(42 posts)Unless they support you know who.
woolldog
(8,791 posts)But not a good sign that a random sampling of Oregon voters could result in Trump running even with Clinton.
Warren DeMontague
(80,708 posts)firebrand80
(2,760 posts)"Totally IRL Doctors"
CobaltBlue
(1,122 posts)Oregon is typically between +8 to +10 points more Democratic than the nation.
If Donald Trump is flipping Oregon, and winning over the state by +2, he is winning nationally by at least +10. (Oregon is one of the few states Michael Dukakis flipped, when he was the party nominee but failed to win a Democratic pickup of the presidency, back in 1988and it hasnt once carried for a Republican presidential nominee since.)
The notion of Donald Trump winning a Republican pickup of Oregon would be the result a 400-plus-vote Electoral College victory in which Trump carries at least 40 states. (The last time those amount of states carried was in 1988 and for Republican George Bush Sr.)
This is not believable.
Toss it in the trash.
woolldog
(8,791 posts)CobaltBlue
(1,122 posts)Last edited Thu Jun 2, 2016, 10:03 AM - Edit history (1)
What, to be specific, were you not able to understand?
cliffordu
(30,994 posts)Bluenorthwest
(45,319 posts)Here is my experience with polling this cycle. Every polling call I have had has been loaded and pushing an agenda. I have in fact hung up on all three of them after telling them so.
The pre Primary polls that Hillary supporters plastered all over DU were absurd. So is this.
auntpurl
(4,311 posts)BklnDem75
(2,918 posts)WorldNetDailys Ethically Challenged Pollster
In June 2009, WorldNetDaily began touting a series of monthly Freedom Index polls conducted exclusively for WND by the public opinion research and media consulting company Wenzel Strategies. The first poll, released June 15, claimed to find that nearly half of all adults in America believe there has been a decrease in personal freedom under the Obama administration. This was followed the next day with another poll asserting that Americans are not only aware of questions about Barack Obamas constitutional eligibility for office, but almost half are either troubled by the questions or believe he should release all relevant documents including his long-form birth certificate.
Its unsurprising that WND would hire a pollster who came up with results that meshed nicely with its anti-Obama agenda Wenzel Strategies would be WNDs ex-pollster if it didnt.
Indeed, company chief Fritz Wenzel plays that part: Regarding the birther poll, WND quotes Wenzel as saying:
Our polling shows that the questions surrounding Barack Obamas eligibility to serve as president clearly strike a nerve across America, probably because it is a problem that everybody understands. Every American citizen has a birth certificate, and once in a while we all have to produce them to get a drivers license or gain entrance to school .... And while Obama did get in to the White House, nearly half the countrys adults 49 percent are troubled by this issue and still want him to produce his official long-form birth certificate.
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/terry-krepel/worldnetdailys-ethically_b_658787.html
A Birther pollster...