2016 Postmortem
Related: About this forumWSJ: "Clinton Might Not Be the Nominee"
Clinton Might Not Be the NomineeA Sanders win in California would turbocharge the mounting Democratic unease about her viability.
By DOUGLAS E. SCHOEN * May 31, 2016 6:31 p.m. ET * Wall St. Journal
There is now more than a theoretical chance that Hillary Clinton may not be the Democratic nominee for president.
How could that happen, given that her nomination has been considered a sure thing by virtually everyone in the media and in the party itself? Consider the possibilities.
The inevitability behind Mrs. Clintons nomination will be in large measure eviscerated if she loses the June 7 California primary to Bernie Sanders. That could well happen.
A recent PPIC poll shows Mrs. Clinton with a 2% lead over Mr. Sanders, and a Fox News survey found the same result. Even a narrow win would give him 250 pledged delegates or morea significant boost. California is clearly trending to Mr. Sanders, and the experience in recent open primaries has been that the Vermont senator tends to underperform in pre-election surveys and over-perform on primary and caucus days, thanks to the participation of new registrants and young voters.
http://www.wsj.com/articles/clinton-might-not-be-the-nominee-1464733898
grasswire
(50,130 posts)CorporatistNation
(2,546 posts)e.g., MSNBC To the deniers... Watch THIS Video... It is not comforting to think that she may well be the Democratic Nominee...
Hillary really betrayed Andrea Mitchell... The entire context of this report was of a solemn nature... A Funeral so to speak...
Andrea Mitchell "I do not see this report as ...ANYTHING BUT... DEVASTATING!"
Chuck Todd "After this I don't think that she could get confirmed for Attorney General!"
Lots of FIBBING by Hillary here.. for more than a year!
nc4bo
(17,651 posts)In a "no" motion in all the clips except during the debate.
She shook her head "no" as she was saying having a private email server was "allowed".
How interesting and telling.
SCantiGOP
(13,870 posts)A great friend of progressive government and the Democratic Party.
nc4bo
(17,651 posts)arikara
(5,562 posts)As you say, those reporters are so upset, it looks like they are discussing a funeral which in a sense they are. If even MSNBC is talking like this, you know it has to be bad for Mrs Clinton. This is why I can't figure out Skinner's decision to get rid of us. So we leave, the socks leave because there's no more use for them; Mrs Clinton gets toasted however it happens, and the result is that this place quickly becomes a ghost town.
AzDar
(14,023 posts)Jitter65
(3,089 posts)AgingAmerican
(12,958 posts)99th_Monkey
(19,326 posts)sheshe2
(83,758 posts)Now you quote another. Good job.
Peace Patriot
(24,010 posts)(Schoen) has worked on the campaigns of many Democratic party candidates including Ed Koch and Bill Clinton,[2] and on behalf of corporate clients. He also did work for Senator Hillary Clinton's presidential campaign and following her defeat became associated with the People United Means Action movement of disaffected Clinton supporters who refused to support Barack Obama.[7][8] Schoen was a consultant for Jeff Greene in the 2010 Florida Senate election.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Douglas_Schoen
That's why I think this post is so interesting. He was so pissed that Hillary didn't win in '08 that he refused to support Obama. And now he's saying Clinton may not get the nomination, when the Clinton campaign theme--and the only thing she's ever really had going for her--is her "inevitability"?
What kind of burr does he have up his nose? He didn't get hired this time? Could be. But he may also know stuff. He's a political insider fish with long feeler tentacles and lethal fins.
oberliner
(58,724 posts)Perhaps consider going beyond Wikipedia for your information?
He has been attacking Hillary continuously throughout this election cycle in some of the most vile right-wing sources (such as Newsmax and, in your OP, the Wall Street Journal.
Response to Peace Patriot (Reply #18)
oberliner This message was self-deleted by its author.
Reiyuki
(96 posts)The only way I can see it working out is if the delegates vote to reestablish the original pre-1936 rule requiring a nominee receive a 2/3 majority to get the nomination. And that's only going to happen if the DNC establishment turns against her.
Granted, that just breaks the first ballot and doesn't guarantee Bernie automatically win afterward, though he would have a good shot. *Usually* in these kinds of messy conventions there is so much bad blood that an outsider (Biden or Warren?) are the only thing both sides can agree on moving forward.
Will it happen? If she continues to decline in the national and swing-state polls against Trump, I'll bet some people high up are considering backup plans.
BzaDem
(11,142 posts)Schoen said that President Obama should not seek reelection in 2012. He has stated that the President has divided the country along partisan lines, and said that the Affordable Care Act had been a "disaster" for the Democratic Party.[3][4]
Schoen has been critical of the Occupy Wall Street protest movement. In a Wall Street Journal op-ed, he wrote, "President Obama and the Democratic leadership are making a critical error in embracing the Occupy Wall Street movementand it may cost them the 2012 election."[3][10] He believes that the protesters represent "an unrepresentative segment of the electorate that believes in radical redistribution of wealth, civil disobedience and, in some instances, violence," and that their common bond is "a deep commitment to left-wing policies."[3][10] Schoen believes that the Democratic Party should not appeal to voters who support taxing oil companies and the rich, but rather to voters in the middle who want lower taxes.[3][11][12][13]
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Douglas_Schoen
w4rma
(31,700 posts)All of that garbage shows the Clintons to have some horrible judgement about who they want to advise them.
Response to w4rma (Reply #10)
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Fawke Em
(11,366 posts)The Clintons have some awful advisors.
Henry Kissinger springs to mind.
And David Brock.
99th_Monkey
(19,326 posts)I would really appreciate that courtesy. It would be very refreshing.
Can you tell me exactly where the article state an untruth?
MADem
(135,425 posts)You seriously want to hitch your wagon to the star of a guy who was insisting that the libertarians were going to be a factor in 2012, and who was saying Romney had a shot?
Feh! Someone with half-baked messages like that are packaging them up and selling them to people who want what they regard as "good news."
Sometimes, it's not "journalism." It's "content."
He writes "content," and it is shitty content, too.
BzaDem
(11,142 posts)The idea that superdelegates would vote against the pledged delegate winner is absurd. Even the article hypothesizes that she would end with at least 200 pledged delegates over his total. It is even more absurd given that historically, superdelegates were created to stop a candidate like Sanders -- not enable such a candidate.
If you took a look at who the author is (someone who believes that the main problem with the Democratic party is that it is way too far left), you might have been able to see that the entire article is one giant untruth.
libdem4life
(13,877 posts)over his head. There is no discussion as to content. She doesn't Stand for Anything, much. I love Jon Stewart's production. Devastating...and absolutely true.
Scootaloo
(25,699 posts)What a laughable claim.
840high
(17,196 posts)sheshe2
(83,758 posts)Wow! Fox Snooze! Awesome!
MADem
(135,425 posts)How'd that work out for him? LOL!
Here he is, in his Fox News gig, calling HRC the "favorite" for 2016:
http://www.foxnews.com/opinion/2015/11/15/hillary-clinton-demonstates-why-shes-in-lead-at-second-democratic-debate.html
And saying she's locked it down in NY, game over:
http://www.foxnews.com/opinion/2016/04/20/clinton-shuts-down-sanders-with-big-win-in-new-york-its-over-for-vermont-senator.html
Four years ago he was saying Romney was gonna pull it out....OOOOH, be very afraid, Barack!!!
http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2012/10/02/the-obama-romney-gap-is-narrowing.html
And he also predicted that the ever present Gary Johnson would be a factor in the Obama-Romney race four years ago....does ANYONE remember him making even a hint of difference? Anyone? Buehler? http://www.foxnews.com/opinion/2012/05/12/gary-johnson-could-catch-presidential-race-by-surprise.html
This guy's specialty appears to be "Riling." He's got himself a big old spoon, and he likes to stir that pot!
I'm not going to lose sleep over his pronouncements. It seems like his stock in trade is finding out what a subset of people want/NEED to hear, and then writing an article that will make them want to click on it, read his soothing words, and feel better. I'll bet Karl Rove loved his cheery Romney reports too.
When Obama is able to endorse, and gets out on the campaign trail, all bets are off and it's game over. And no supers are going to flip--hell, the overwhelming majority of Sanders' peers--the people he worked with, day in, day out, for TEN long years, have said "Pfffffft. NO. Hell NO." If he can't get his own co-workers to back him, how's he going to get all those people his Brigade called up/emailed and threatened to suddenly think he's a good pick? I suspect many of them would rather set themselves on fire than flip to BS.
Anyway, I don't Douglas Schoen is very good at his job. He's always a day late and a dollar short.
sheshe2
(83,758 posts)This hurts the Democratic Party and our front runner. Please stop quoting RW sites, this a 2nd for you tonight. Please stop. You deleted the last one when you realized it was RW. Stop!
Me. I have no children of my own, yet I have many nieces, nephews and now their sweet children that I adore. I do want Trump. He will destroy us far worse than Bush ever did. I do not wish this on the children that I love.
w4rma
(31,700 posts)oberliner
(58,724 posts)Here's some more info about Schoen:
Pollster Doug Schoen is the quintessential Fox News Democrat. He loosely identifies himself as a Dem, but as someone whos actively hostile towards Dems and the partys agenda, Schoen is really only popular as a personality in GOP media. Fox News gets to tout its balance by inviting him on the air Republicans who hate Democrats are joined by Democrats who hate Democrats.
....
After Schoens incessant condemnations of Democrats, and praise for right-wing Tea Party activists, his credibility has crumbled.
http://www.washingtonmonthly.com/political-animal/2011_10/doug_schoen_isnt_helping_his_r032892.php#
PowerToThePeople
(9,610 posts)Response to w4rma (Reply #20)
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Cobalt Violet
(9,905 posts)She won't win the general with her major trust problems that just keep getting worse. Wake up!
Peace Patriot
(24,010 posts)both to Bill and to Hillary. Please see my link to his bio in wiki (in this thread). That's why this post should remain, and why it is a particularly interesting OP.
I don't object to RW sources when the link is merely informative, as with some of the posts about the Judicial Watch lawsuit, for reference to documents that are in the public record, and information that may affect the FBI investigation. We DO need to know what's going on. I hope you would agree. I don't understand efforts to make DU merely a propaganda site, and not an informative site. And if you don't know what ammunition Trump is going to use against Clinton, if she's the nominee, then you won't make a good advocate for her. Sanders doesn't use this kind of ammunition (the email server scandal, the John Kerry State Department OIG report). He specifically disavowed doing so. He's focused on the issues that directly impact peoples' lives. But Trump IS NOT FOCUSED ON those issues. He's a public policy idiot! So what is he going to use? Clinton supporters will need to know chapter and verse of what Clinton did, what laws some people think she broke and so on. Because you're going to be hearing about it 24/7 for a very long time.
Extending this "head in the sand" attitude to a Clinton advisor--Schoen--just because he says she may not be the nominee, is absurdly "head in the sand."
oberliner
(58,724 posts)Pollster Doug Schoen is the quintessential Fox News Democrat. He loosely identifies himself as a Dem, but as someone whos actively hostile towards Dems and the partys agenda, Schoen is really only popular as a personality in GOP media. Fox News gets to tout its balance by inviting him on the air Republicans who hate Democrats are joined by Democrats who hate Democrats.
...
After Schoens incessant condemnations of Democrats, and praise for right-wing Tea Party activists, his credibility has crumbled.
http://www.washingtonmonthly.com/political-animal/2011_10/doug_schoen_isnt_helping_his_r032892.php#
lostnfound
(16,179 posts)Wonder how that works.
oberliner
(58,724 posts)No argument here on that score.
Fawke Em
(11,366 posts)She'll send our kids to war and strip them of their Social Security with wide support of Third Way Dems and Republicans.
Both she and Trump are HORRIBLE for the Middle Class.
Cut me quick or cut me slow - it still hurts.
Peace Patriot
(24,010 posts)...and he was a Clinton operative for many years (see my comment above and the wiki cite), he makes an interesting point--one I've been thinking about, too---in the quoted part of the article, above. (I can't access the rest of the article. Anybody want to summarize it for me?)
California is clearly trending to Mr. Sanders, and the experience in recent open primaries has been that the Vermont senator tends to underperform in pre-election surveys and over-perform on primary and caucus days, thanks to the participation of new registrants and young voters. --from the OP
Sanders tends to underperform in pre-election polls because (in my view) pollsters are not adequately covering new voters and young voters, and then he seems to overperform when it comes to the actual voting. It's gotten so, whenever I see a poll about Sanders, I automatically add about 10 pts, without thinking about it, because he so often gets more votes in caucuses and primaries--sometimes a lot more--than is predicted.
Schoen also says "California is clearly trending to Mr. Sanders." I'm a native Californian, been here a lo-o-o-ong time, 71 years, and active in Democratic politics since I was 16. California has registered TWO MILLION new voters as of the reg deadline of May 23. Most of these are young voters, most registered Democratic. Also, Sanders has been extremely energetic in traveling up and down this big state and is drawing thousands of people to rallies everywhere he goes. The enthusiasm is palpable.
He just tied Clinton (coming from way behind) in recent polls, and, to me, this means he's going to win California by at least 10% and probably much more, given those registration figures. And I'll tell you this about Jerry Brown, Barbara Boxer and Diane Feinstein--and our whole roster of corporate Democrats: Californians are far more progressive than our leadership, and chafe under our party leadership over their acceptance of corporate rule, and, in the case of Feinstein, corporate-warmonger rule. California voters are perfectly capable of rejecting these leaders' Clinton endorsements. We don't have party bosses here. We are an eclectic and ever-changing population, with constant immigration from other places, and a natural rebellious instinct. And we also have a long history of populism that I would say is, at long last, resurgent. We smashed the Railroad "robber barons" long ago, and created the most progressive government in the country. And we may be about to do that again, for the nation as a whole.
The handwriting is on the wall: Oregon, Washington, Hawaii, Alaska, Colorado...next California. The renewal of our democracy starts here in the west, as it did once before.
Schoen may be a political hack, but even political hacks can be right every once in a while. And I think this may be his one good shot at it. I think he's right about California and right about the polls underestimating Sanders, and why. TWO MILLION new voters, most of them young, most of them registering Democratic--and most of them probably missed by the pollsters.
BzaDem
(11,142 posts)(He is not going to come close to winning California by 20%, by the way. The polls have been pretty correct on average this season. You should also ask what Washington, Hawaii, Alaska, and Colorado have in common, that California does not.)
reformist2
(9,841 posts)YouDig
(2,280 posts)Peace Patriot
(24,010 posts)...Clinton may not be the nominee?
Whatever you think of Schoen, he is NOT a RW source. He worked on campaigns for both Clintons, for many years.
WSJ sucks, it's true (myself, I call them the "Wall Street Urinal" but Murdoch didn't write this, as far as we know. Murdoch editors may have their own reasons for publishing it, but Schoen wrote it. It's his byline. And he's a long time Clinton political operative.
And, as a matter of fact, it IS a surprise, coming from him. Please get informed! I'm so tired of Clinton supporters who don't know anything, don't research, don't think, can't argue from an informed viewpoint, and post these repetitive, one-liner "talking point" knifes-in-the-back as if they were meaningful thoughts.
oberliner
(58,724 posts)Who appears in print in Newsmax (a vile far RW source) and on the Glenn Beck show.
Along with being a regular contributor to the WSJ and has a residency on Fox News
JCanete
(5,272 posts)Last edited Wed Jun 1, 2016, 01:46 PM - Edit history (1)
I'm saying they don't think he can win. They just want to bloody Hillary a little for the GE. They don't actually want to go toe to toe with Sanders, because his hands aren't tied behind his back on matters of government and big money collusion like Hillary's are(I'm making believe that she has any interest in addressing these issues anyway), and at the end of the day the powers that be are okay with a Hillary Presidency, and they're the ones that sign the checks for the media personalities and producers.
Rest assured, when it comes down to it the media will eventually be in Trump takedown mode. They would barely have an option even if they wanted him to win because his foibles are too documented and too frequent for them to keep covered up, which would make them look like obvious shills. W was easier. His handlers just did their best to keep him from talking off script about policy, and the media never took the GOP to task for it.
If somebody else were running, then yes, 2/3's of the media would be in full Hillary take-down mode, and MSNBC and the other DNC outlets would be in full GOP candidate take-down mode, and at the end of the day, the top .01 percent would have big fat grins on their faces no matter who wins, because the house always does.
underthematrix
(5,811 posts)are both owned by Australian Rupert Murdoch
RufusTFirefly
(8,812 posts)underthematrix
(5,811 posts)And I see HRC took a pic with him. Good for her. She understands sometimes you have to hang out with the trash
oberliner
(58,724 posts)Douglas Schoen is a political analyst for Fox News and a columnist for Newsmax. And this article is from the Wall Street Journal.
It is strange how frequently these right-wing sources are posted at DU these days.
Peace Patriot
(24,010 posts)Don't Clinton supporters READ? Did you read this thread? Do you know who Doug Schoen is?
Jeez.
oberliner
(58,724 posts)Schoen is the quintessential Fox News Democrat. He loosely identifies himself as a Dem, but as someone whos actively hostile towards Dems and the partys agenda, Schoen is really only popular as a personality in GOP media. Fox News gets to tout its balance by inviting him on the air Republicans who hate Democrats are joined by Democrats who hate Democrats.
http://www.washingtonmonthly.com/political-animal/2011_10/doug_schoen_isnt_helping_his_r032892.php#
From the same article
After Schoens incessant condemnations of Democrats, and praise for right-wing Tea Party activists, his credibility has crumbled.
(That was 2011)
Response to Peace Patriot (Reply #32)
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floppyboo
(2,461 posts)MFM008
(19,808 posts)Tic....tic.....tuesday.
firebrand80
(2,760 posts)Last point wins
workinclasszero
(28,270 posts)Now why would the WSJ want to have a its sworn enemy, Bernie Sanders beat Hillary Clinton for the democratic nomination???
These are things the berners should ask themselves but of course they won't.
They are just thrilled to death the the WSJ and fox news and most hardcore right wing haters all hope Sanders beats Hillary. They except the right wing love without question.
DUH
jack_krass
(1,009 posts)Bernie sworn enemy of WSJ? Source? WSJ is not Wall Street.
workinclasszero
(28,270 posts)The Wall Street Journal doesn't represent Wall Street, gee thanks for clearing that up.
Who knew the WSJ were a bunch of leftist socialist revolutionaries?
I learn the darnest stuff from Sanders fans!
Response to 99th_Monkey (Original post)
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Lodestar
(2,388 posts)with Warren on his arm (VP).
If that coup were to be attempted then you can bet that Bernie's
supporters would stand by him and Warren would be revealed
to be an establishment wonk (stepping all over our democracy and
participating in the charade).
Specifically, Schoen argues, Sanders could seize the opportunity to change the convention rules to force superdelegates to cast their ballot for whichever candidate won their state. (In many states, Sanders won delegates at the ballot box, only to lose to Clinton overall because of her superdelegate lead.)
In addition, he says, Vice President Joe Biden may be eager to enter the fray.
Schoen writes:
A Sanders win in California would powerfully underscore Mrs. Clintons weakness as a candidate in the general election. Democratic superdelegateschosen by the party establishment and overwhelmingly backing Mrs. Clinton, 543-44would seriously question whether they should continue to stand behind her candidacy.
There is every reason to believe that at the convention Mr. Sanders will offer a rules change requiring superdelegates to vote for the candidate who won their states primary or caucus. A vote on that proposed change would almost certainly occurand it would function as a referendum on the Clinton candidacy. If Mr. Sanders wins California, Montana and North Dakota on Tuesday and stays competitive in New Jersey, he could well be within 200 pledged delegates of Mrs. Clinton, making a vote in favor of the rules change on superdelegates more likely
Mr. Biden would be cast as the white knight rescuing the party, and the nation, from a possible Trump presidency. To win over Sanders supporters, he would likely choose as his running mate someone like Sen. Elizabeth Warren who is respected by the partys left wing.
In addition, Schoen writes, Clinton faces increasing pressure from the FBI investigation into her personal e-mail server and apparent conflicts of interest involving her family foundation and her performance as Secretary of State.
Schoen is a Fox News contributor, and has worked for the Clintons in the past.
Response to Lodestar (Reply #45)
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Lodestar
(2,388 posts)Response to Lodestar (Reply #53)
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floppyboo
(2,461 posts)continued in Venezuela through out her term as SoS - tried damn hard to discredit Maduro, and looks like Kerry has taken up the gauntlet. This surprises you that Schoen was involved in this kind of vote interference?
Editing to add a reference: http://venezuelanalysis.com/news/11733 This is from last year. Read the whole article to get an idea of her support for interference.
In other comments, Clinton waded into the contentious murder of opposition parliamentary candidate Luis Manuel Diaz who was shot at a political event last week.
Opposition spokespeople immediately moved to blame the death on Chavista groups, but information since released by authorities suggests that the murder was related to turf wars and unsettled scores between rival organised criminal groups.
Diaz himself had spent three years in prison awaiting trial for his connection to a double homicide and had received a series of death threats since he was temporarily released.
I am outraged by the cold-blooded assassination of Luis Manuel Diaz on stage at a rally last week, stated Clinton.
snip
As former Secretary of State for the Obama administration between 2009-2013, Clintons tenure coincided with an increase in funding for political opposition groups in Venezuela from institutions such as the National Endowment for Democracy which in return receives an annual appropriation from US Congress through the State Department.
Peace Patriot
(24,010 posts)I'm a frequent blogger in the DU Latin America forum. I figured at the time that it was just more Clintonism (because of Schoen's association with the Clintons). What I heard next was that Penn and Berland had kicked Schoen out, because of Schoen's disreputable behavior in the Venezuela election.
This STILL doesn't mean that he doesn't have a good point about California and the impact of a Sanders win in California. He does. And I was surprised that he wrote it--since he was a Clinton operative for many years--and surprised that I agreed with him on anything.
I'm not endorsing him, nor the Wall Street Urinal, nor Murdoch, nor Faux News! Jeez.
floppyboo
(2,461 posts)I'm not familiar with Shoen's work. I just get a little ticked off when someone's (his) actions are attributed to the enemy camp, when equally damaging actions come from the top of their own.
Response to floppyboo (Reply #58)
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floppyboo
(2,461 posts)Response to 99th_Monkey (Original post)
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Derdog
(10 posts)JesterCS
(1,827 posts)Response to JesterCS (Reply #73)
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Cali_Democrat
(30,439 posts)BreakfastClub
(765 posts)if Hillary is so corporate-friendly and in the back pocket of Goldman Sachs, why is the Wall Street Journal always attacking her? Logic, it fails them.