WSJ/NBC Poll: Hillary Clinton Holds 2-Point Lead Ahead of California Primary

[NWCorona]

"Democratic candidates Hillary Clinton and Bernie Sanders are deadlocked in California ahead of next week’s high-stakes primary, a new Wall Street Journal/NBC News/Marist poll shows, raising the prospect of a surprise outcome that would give Mr. Sanders confidence to carry his campaign into the party’s convention next month.

Mrs. Clinton leads the Vermont senator by just 2 percentage points among likely Democratic primary voters, 49% to 47%, well within the survey’s margin of error. The poll signals a closer contest than expected just weeks ago.

The fate of Mr. Sanders’s presidential bid rides heavily on the outcome in California—the last major contest of the primary season and the one that awards the most delegates.

Mrs. Clinton can win enough delegates on June 7, when six states hold nominating contests, to claim the Democratic nomination, without winning the primary in California. She essentially has the nomination, thanks to the support of superdelegates, who can switch their allegiance at any time.

Mr. Sanders has been campaigning in California every day since May 21, hoping to build his vote total to bolster his argument to superdelegates ahead of the July nominating convention that he is the party’s stronger candidate.

A win in California could also strengthen Mr. Sanders’s hand in pushing for the party platform to better reflect his liberal agenda.

At the least, a Clinton loss in California would cast a long shadow over her campaign as she seeks to unify the Democratic Party after an unexpectedly competitive—and divisive—primary process. In particular, Mrs. Clinton needs to make inroads among the younger voters who have fueled Mr. Sanders’s campaign.



Among Democratic primary voters age 18 to 29, the poll found, 80% favor Mr. Sanders, while Mrs. Clinton garners almost twice his support among primary voters age 45 and older. Mr. Sanders also outpaces the Democratic front-runner by a wide margin, 72% to 28%, among those voters who would be participating for the first time.

The good news for Mrs. Clinton is that it looks like she has already banked a larger share of the early vote. She leads among Californians who have already cast ballots, 58% to 41%. She also beats Mr. Sanders in the state’s two biggest urban centers, the Bay Area and Los Angeles County.

Mr. Sanders holds a slight lead, 49% to 46%, among Latino voters, who account for more than a quarter of likely Democratic primary voters.


http://www.wsj.com/amp/articles/hillary-clinton-holds-2-point-lead-ahead-of-california-primary-poll-finds-1464814829

[nadinbrzezinski]

1. As a local anatlyst put it today

it depends on TURNOUT...

[NWCorona]

3. Yup!

I'm looking into cross over ballot requests as we speak.

[Demsrule86]

5. maybe

But of course California is irrelevant unless it was a huuuuge loss for Clinton, and it won't be...I wonder did the local analyst mention that Obama lost California and 'limped into the general' as it was reported in 08. Bernie has lost and time to move on. I hope she wins because then we don't have to listen to Bernie whining all day and night...but honestly...it does not matter. She will win after Jersey.

[Cheese Sandwich]

26. It won't affect who is the nominee but that doesn't make it irrelevant.

There are other things that make it relevant.

Like if an self-identified socialist wins the California Democratic primary that's a very relevant signal for other socialists who might want to run for office in California.

[nadinbrzezinski]

32. Some of these folks have the attitude that the United States woudl be better without CA

just the 8th largest economy. At times I think they are right. We could do that and be a successful to boot

They despise us, and it is starting to be quite mutual.

And this talk that CA is insignificant happens every four years. We are quite honestly, or least many of the folks I know, are quite tired of it.

[nadinbrzezinski]

29. Theirs is a closed primary

so what is the price of tea in china these days?

[kstewart33]

58. The key question concerns those who've already voted.

Among that group, Hillary leads Bernie by 17 points.

Usually, about half of the total electorate votes early in California.

Will that be the case on June 7?

[nadinbrzezinski]

59. None really knowns becuase of the surge of registrations to the deadline

who did not vote early, and the NDP, and nobody what ballot people will request. CA is pretty much depending on what happens that day.

[beachbumbob]

2. Expect Hillarys margin will increase after the dissing by sanders

Of gov brown and reemphasized by Jane...like I said...I want to thank Bernie and Jane for helping Hillary win California

[NWCorona]

4. I don't expect Hillary to rise at all.

[beachbumbob]

8. We will know in a week...but sanders is being ripped to shreds

On local radio...and newspapers....

[NWCorona]

9. Is that anything new? I do agree that we will know soon enough.

[nadinbrzezinski]

7. Anecdtoal I know

Last edited Wed Jun 1, 2016, 08:50 PM - Edit history (1)

but a couple of my neighbors are sitting it out. You see they hold clearances, they were very much pro HRC until the OIG report came out, and they read editorials, They cannot vote for her on national security grounds. They have convinced a few of their friends NOT TO VOTE for HRC on those grounds. There is aub story that is making the rounds, and pissing people in the Intel community off to end.

http://www.politico.com/story/2016/05/kristian-saucier-investigation-hillary-clinton-223646

One of them alerted me to this story. Chew on that.

[grasswire]

62. comments are interesting there......nt

[azurnoir]

6. so after massive voter disenfranchisement that's all they have to show?

well........

[LonePirate]

13. There was no massive voter disenfranchisement.

I know that is the go to excuse any time Sanders is behind or losing; but given the state's exceptionally voter friendly system and the state's size, the disenfranchisement you think happened actually did not happen.

Also, voter insolence and ignorance related to registration and voting laws is not disenfranchisement.

[azurnoir]

30. 2% is hardly anything especially when one realizes it falls within the error zone

of the poll, meaning it has no meaning

[Renew Deal]

22. The Chicken Little response

The election hasn't even happened and you're already screaming about disenfranchisement? What a joke!

[azurnoir]

27. perhaps disinformation or lack of of informing is more to your taste?

I'm not screaming about anything though, it was a rye comment that seems to have hit a nerve

[Renew Deal]

31. Your post is literally disinformation.

An unsupported claim lacking any facts meant to skew opinion.

[azurnoir]

33. No it isn't it's based on a suit brought by Sanders supporters that a judge refused to consider

[Renew Deal]

35. Thank you. The judge said it was "frivolous"

It makes your claim based on a dismissed "frivolous" lawsuit disinformation. You're making this easy.

[azurnoir]

37. No it was not disinformation at all in fact your replies prove the opposite

if it was really disinformation why bother? unless..........

[Jitter65]

10. With as much money spent by the BS camp against HRC and all the hits coming

from the media and the GOP, I am surprised that Hillary is up at all. Who could withstand that amount of attacks and still be two point ahead?

[NWCorona]

12. If you really think that how will she have a chance against trump?

[senz]

11. Yay Bernie! Vote smart, California!

[KingFlorez]

14. Even with only a 2% win, she still clinches

That would give her 242 pledged delegates, only 14 short of what she needs to reach a majority of pledged delegates.

With that said, independents are not turning in their mail ballots at a good rate, which is not good news for Sanders.

[NWCorona]

16. Bernie needs more than 2% and I think he will get more in the end.

[KingFlorez]

17. He needs to keep Clinton from getting any delegates

He needs to repeat what he did in Vermont. With that said, even if he did get 85% of the vote, he would still not reach the amount he needed to clinch.

[NWCorona]

20. If Bernie locked up Cali it would put him over Hillary.

I'm not saying he would do that tho

[nadinbrzezinski]

34. If that happened... highly unlikely

it would be a 10 in the political richter scale, with an F-5 tornado, and a Class 6 Hurricane (they are thinking of using that by the way)

[LonePirate]

15. How big was the absentee/already voted sample? Was it included in the overall results?

If Clinton wins CA, she can likely thank the early voters which have helped her win many states. That's one gauge of voter enthusiasm nobody ever discusses.

[Renew Deal]

18. Not even close to the 85% Bernie needs

[imagine2015]

23. He doesn't need 85%. He'd love to get 51%.

What does he "need" 85% for?

The pledged delegates won decide who the nominee is.

Hillary and Bernie won't win enough pledged delegates to win the nomination.

But, the more delegates Bernie can elect in the remaining primaries the better position he'll be in at the convention.

Superdelegates will have to take a long, hard look before they decide who to vote for.

The strongest candidate against Trump is obviously Bernie Sanders so maybe the superdelegates will do what is best for their party and the nation by voting for Bernie.

[KingFlorez]

24. He needs 85% to even get close to clinching the nomination

Last edited Wed Jun 1, 2016, 08:49 PM - Edit history (1)

But even that wouldn't be enough to put him ahead. To actually clinch, he needs to sweep every single contest left by double digits and then win 85% in California. 51% isn't going to do it, because Clinton would still reach the required threshold.

[Number23]

63. This is what alot of these guys don't seem to get and I'm not sure why. Even if Sanders wins

which in and of itself is unlikely, he needs to win by such a massive margin that squeaking by with 5, 10 or even 20% win actually does nothing for him.

Anything below damn near 70% is a HUGE loss for him and there is no chance he'll get 70% in California.

[B Calm]

19. It's pretty rare when California can decide the nominee. I look for a huge turnout.

[imagine2015]

21. Hillary had a huge lead in California just a few weeks ago. She's falling fast.

[JudyM]

25. Pay attention, please, California... her trajectory ain't looking good against tRump.

[Renew Deal]

36. How many Trump supporters are voting for Bernie?

Now that there is no longer a competitive republican primary?

[nadinbrzezinski]

39. If they are Republicans they do not get to vote in the Democratic Primary

at least do the minimum effort of finding this shit out

[Renew Deal]

40. What if they are NPP's?

Are all Trump supporters republicans?

[nadinbrzezinski]

41. Theirs is a closed priimary

they had to register republican to vote for Trump/

Again, do the minimum effort.

[Renew Deal]

44. Can't they request a Democratic ballot?

[SaschaHM]

45. Only NPP voters can.

People who intended to vote for Trump would have had to switch to the Republican party already as the Republican, Green, and Peace& Freedom parties do not allow NPP voters to participate.
So most folks that were dead set on voting for Trump would need to be Republicans and therefore, will be excluded from the democratic primary.

[Renew Deal]

46. What about people that intend to vote for Trump in the GE and are NPP's?

[SaschaHM]

50. Yeah, they can.

And there will be some of those. They would specifically need to request a democratic ballot though instead of the NPP one. I'd argue that most NPP folks that intended to vote for Trump in the GE switched to Republican party to vote for Trump since the narrative for months was that if Trump didn't have the exact amount, there would be a contested convention.

[bettyellen]

51. They could have changed their registration up till a couple weeks ago- with minimum effort.

[nadinbrzezinski]

52. You believe that happens often? I don't

This is like the fantasy of people voting without citizenship, or the other fantasy, early and often,

Of course I could be wrong, do you have statistics that prove me wrong? I am dead serious, becuase every time I ask about the other two myths people come empty.

[bettyellen]

54. I am shocked at how many here claim they have changed registration- and more than once-

To screw over republicans or to go back and forth from Indy to Republican.
So I dunno, you think these people are lying? It's so easy to switch it, and it's a contentious election.m

[nadinbrzezinski]

57. And yet they are in the same percentage as the other two

in the 0.0000000000001 percent.

How is that going to affect an election?

The Dems have gotten an influx of voters, mostly young first time voters. Usually by the second or third election voter pattern are set.

So as I expected no data. Thanks in advance.

Back in reality...

Most state and local officials and voting experts believe that there has been a surge in new registrants. It’s just that it’s hard to prove it beyond a doubt. The numbers tend to confuse rather than clarify.

http://www.latimes.com/politics/la-pol-ca-california-voters-registration-surge-20160524-snap-story.html

[bettyellen]

60. Was just correcting your mistake that there was no time for them to switch to Republican....

There have been reports of a lot of people changing registration as well as new registrations, bit no one is giving details so it is all conjecture on your part.

[nadinbrzezinski]

61. And that is not my mistake, you keep spreading FUD and a lie

that the republicans do as well There was no OP Chaos in 2008, there is no OP Chaos today. It is a fantasy, partisans on both sides love it.

[SaschaHM]

43. Trump tended to pull from both bases, republican and independent.

There would have to be a massive concerted effort to rat screw though to make a meaningful difference. The 2008 race on the republican side ended in February and that didn't lead to massive ratscrewing in the prolonged democratic race. Hell, many are going to show up to vote for Trump, even though he has this thing in the bag.

[SaschaHM]

38. So pretty much a split in the delegates no matter who wins.

We do have two more polls though. I'm not exactly convinced by some of the crosstabs (you can account for race and age, but most polls don't account for race+age, which is key). The early voting number doesn't look that good for a Sanders' landslide. If that carries over to actual votes, she could lose, but still have enough baked in to end the night with a majority of pledged delegates.

[MattP]

47. How many of those indys are independent party and not non party affiliated

I bet its at least 5 points

[NorthCarolina]

48. Wow, thought I saw +13 on DU about an hour ago...She's dropping FAST. -nt-

[B Calm]

49. She is having a big problems with likeability, and favorbility.

[B Calm]

56. and trustworthiness!

[Babel_17]

53. Let's hope for an unprecedentedly large turnout

Great for democracy, great for the Democratic party's platform and values. We are about the voting, and listening to the voters. California's place in the schedule makes them getting this unusual attention a pleasure that has been long deferred. They're marching, singing, dancing, and speaking up. Go California!

[Rosa Luxemburg]

55. the Clinton campaign is worried