NC going blue!

[barbtries]

http://abclocal.go.com/wtvd/video?id=8872515

go about 2 minutes in for the money comment: 48% dem to 32% repub in early voting.

by the way, i was there at Chavis Park poll monitoring when the guy was filming this piece.



Now to go watch a live stream of President Clinton over at Pullen Park in Raleigh, BLUE NC.

[RandySF]

1. Question

I'm not trying to spoil the joy, but how many are white "Democrats" who typically vote Republican?

[barbtries]

2. how many republicans

are voting for the president? i'm sure the number is substantial.

probably more than democrats voting for the lying sack of shit running on the other side.

[Pool Hall Ace]

7. My husband is one Republican who voted for Pres. Obama

on Friday, at Lake Lynn Community Center.

[barbtries]

9. right where i live!

wtg! now to convince him he really doesn't have to stay in that party - it's going the way of the whigs and the tories!

[Pool Hall Ace]

50. Then we could have walked right by your place

It was so crowded, there was no place to park, so we drove to an adjacent neighborhood and took the trail !

[barbtries]

51. you may have

[ncgrits]

10. YAY!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! nt

[obamanut2012]

61. My father, for one

He is a registered Republican, but is now definitely a (Conserva)Dem. He voted for Obama in 2008, and voted for him again this past week.

[barbtries]

70. yay for your dad!

i know of exactly one person (within my circle of acquaintances) who told me she "used to be a democrat."

[ProfessionalLeftist]

3. Repubs usually vote on election day

I hope NC remains blue but -- it may not once they all vote on Tuesday.

[barbtries]

4. it won't be enough

and with the news about his fraudulent windfall from the auto bailout, and his not paying taxes for all those years, etc, etc, etc, i think a lot of people will either stay at home or make a considered choice for the best candidate for the job. i just can't believe there are that many people who want to see a rerun (or worse) of the gwbush years.

[ProfessionalLeftist]

5. I hope you're right!

[barbtries]

6. the campaign's going after NC

Clinton here today, Michelle in Charlotte tomorrow. i am very, very hopeful that NC will go to Obama.

if it doesn't it's just going to break my heart. i know it won't make the difference in the election, but still.

[zebe83]

8. Thanks for all your hard work.

[barbtries]

11. i didn't do much

compared to many others, but you're welcome! i should be doing something today but i'm just jumping around DU and FB and watching netflix...

it's important. i think i read this first on DU: you don't have to love Obama to vote for him, you just have to love your family.

[John2]

18. There

are still more Democrats that have not voted than Republicans on Tuesday. Republicans are banking on unaffiliated and Democrats to make up that deficit. I don't know about the 65 percent Messina quoted but Romney does need over 55 percent to win of the remaining votes left. The bottom line, it is an uphill climb for Romney on Tuesday. When I look at just Durham county, every Presidential election, this county has a high turnout rate and Democrats out number Republicans 3-1. In the early voting statistics, most of those voters have not voted yet. These are likely voters too, because they vote every election. Many of the voters Obama has banked in early voting are sporadic voters and new voters which don't show up in Polls. The Obama campaign want say it, but North Carolina looks pretty good and might be the biggest surprise on Tuesday because everybody in the media has it as a safe bet for Romney. I think the Obama campaign is sand bagging on what is really going on in North Carolina.

Even the pundits have failed to mention, Clinton's visit to North Carolina or Michelle's visit on Monday. They keep talking about Pennsylvania, New Hampshire, Minnesota and Colorado, but the real story maybe here in North Carolina.

[barbtries]

19. thank you John2!

an excellent and knowledgeable analysis. i think the rural western part of the state is the cause for concern, but as always, as long as the people get out and vote, the democrats win.

[marions ghost]

76. Thanks for your optimism

I hope we'll be you for being right, John2

[SaveAmerica]

26. *Usually* but this year Rep. worked hard to GOTV in early voting

I think they've pulled their usual Election Day voters to come out early and they won't have a lot more to pull from on Election Day.

[barbtries]

48. thank you

more good news for the dems, assuming you're right about that. in the video in the OP they had one guy on camera who had gone to Chavis to vote because the wait at Lake Lynn was 3 hours. Lake Lynn is in a very red area (i live on the lake) and the early voting site has had cars all up and down Ray Road for the past few days, so i think you may very well be right!

[BluegrassDem]

12. I'm happy, but you have to be realistic

There are a lot of Dixiecrats in the south. I live in Kentucky. Dems far outnumber Repugs in registration, but most white Dems will vote for Romney. I anticipate a lot of white Dems will vote for Romney in N.C. Just saying more Dems are beating Repugs in voting doesn't mean too much in the south unfortunately.

[barbtries]

14. kentucky is not like NC.

which elected Obama in 2008. I feel for you being in a state where you basically know that your candidate cannot win. but NC is not like Kentucky, or Tennessee, or SC, or the deep south states. It has gone blue and it can go blue again. that is realistic. i can be wrong, i'm not pretending otherwise, but i can be right, too.

Tuesday tells the story. keep your fingers crossed for NC!

[bluemarkers]

39. NC has always been fairly Independent

last to leave the Union in the war of northern aggression, (I kid) the first to rejoin the union once it was over, A part of NC left during the war, we even have a Union County. I realize that was a long time ago, however...

Now we have several urban areas Charlotte, Raleigh/Durham, Greensboro, Ashville etc that are highly democratic. The Democratic voters in these areas simply outnumber the Republicans in the rural areas. We've lost a lot of industry - from high tech to furniture to textiles - and we have a large military population, probably areas around Fayetteville and Jacksonville will probably be red. otoh, the coast benefited from more vacationers over the past few years, and they really understand the need for FEMA.

I was very very disappointed with Amendment one, and felt the church freaks were better organized.

[barbtries]

41. i was very disappointed in amendment 1 as well.

and it wasn't even close. i hated that.

[obamanut2012]

63. It wouldn't have passed if it was being voted on tomorrow

I stand by that.

They broke NC law to get it on the primary ballot, and then lied in TV ads about what it was.

[barbtries]

71. then maybe we can bring the issue back up before the voters

before much more time passes?

public sentiment regarding gay marriage is speeding to the left. i'm not arguing with you though i didn't know about the law being broken to put it on the ballot.

[obamanut2012]

75. I think only the NCSC can overturn it now

[obamanut2012]

62. NC is very different from KY

Demographics, populist history, etc.

[ginnyinWI]

13. I think the enthusiasm is on the Dem side

Lots of repubs are going to drag their feet as they go to the polls, not vote early to make sure they get to do it! It is a "hold your nose and vote" election for a lot of them. So I'm not surprised that Dems lead in the early vote.

[barbtries]

15. yep.

because most of them know that the best choice is the president.

[Cha]

16. Thanks for the Report, barbtries! BLUE NORTH CAROLINA!

[barbtries]

17. thank you Cha!

out of what? 4 replies, yours is the first not to rain on my little parade i got going on here!

[Andy Stanton]

20. I would LOVE to see that happen

Go Dems!!!

[NewJeffCT]

21. what were the early vote totals in 2008?

for comparison?

[LisaL]

22. It's not fair to compare to 2008.

McCain had no early GOTV effort, while Romney does.

[barbtries]

24. i don't have the numbers

but if you watch the video at the link iirc there is better turnout this year.

[mnhtnbb]

27. Early vote totals have exceeded 2008 by 100,000 votes.

See my thread http://www.democraticunderground.com/1251208721

[ffr]

23. Yep 3 to 2, Dems lead Reps. Here are the numbers

DU Thread on NC early vote from 11/04/12

[barbtries]

25. thank you ffr

it's very encouraging.

[whttevrr]

28. I believe in your effort!

Check out my map:
http://www.democraticunderground.com/1251211182

[barbtries]

29. i just did!

that's like a picture of a DREAM election. i hope it happens just that way, too.

[SaveAmerica]

30. I agree with you and I don't feel we'll have to wait a week to find out like '08!

The factor missing from your numbers is with Independents and the word is that they are mostly 50-50 at this point with many starting to go from Romney to Obama. That is to be considered and factored into your numbers, and not many are thinking of much else except the cut and dry usual polling. There's more to it this time.

Barbtries, I'll see you back here on Tuesday night, ready to watch those numbers come in!

[barbtries]

31. see you then!

i'll probably do the same thing i did in 2008: fall asleep until i can tune in to the announcement of Obama's election. it just stresses me out so much, i just fall out. in 2008 i swear i spontaneously woke up just in time to hear Obama had won.

eta if we have a rerun of 2000 or 2004 it's going to rake me over the coals. man.

[SaveAmerica]

54. I don't think we will, I think theh winner will have enough states that they will

call it for him that night!

[Buzz Clik]

32. No. Obama is highly likely to lose NC.

Romney has a 2.5% lead and the trend has been consistent for a month.

http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/pollster/2012-north-carolina-president-romney-vs-obama?gem

[wishlist]

33. Great Obama TV ads running this pm vs Romney negative ones

I've been noticing that Obama ads such as the great Colin Powell endorsement and the positive one with the Pres speaking into camera are running (and occasionally the 47% tape ad) while Romney is running all nasty negative ads such as the latest one accusing Obama of having a campaign of hate, division and revenge. What a contrast! Way to go Obama campaign in providing more upbeat closing arguments.

[Denise21]

34. NC is not going blue

I just looked at the Electoral map and Romney is still ahead 2pts. Still red

[Buzz Clik]

35. Absolutely. Romney essentially has NC locked.

http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/pollster/2012-north-carolina-president-romney-vs-obama?gem

[zebe83]

36. Thanks for being positive.

[barbtries]

37. it seems many DUers

are already conceding here in NC. well i live here and i cannot do that. i'll concede NC when it's been lost and not before.

[whttevrr]

40. Thank You!

Thank You for your valiant Efforts!

You have already won.

[zebe83]

49. .......

[obamanut2012]

64. Me too

[Lex]

38. The final polls had McCain by 2 points in 2008 too, and how'd that turn out, Denise21?

[barbtries]

43. hey Lex

thanks for weighing in! this can happen.

[Lex]

45. get so tired of the nay-sayers

NC would've never gone blue in 2008 if everyone had decided "oh well, it can't be done."

[barbtries]

47. there you go.

say hi to supernova!

[faithfulcitizen]

53. me too, especially ones with low post counts!

[obamanut2012]

65. Thanks, Lex

[DemKittyNC]

42. N.C. is definitley going blue!

Those polls are full of crap and to take those polls at face value is not very bright. Trust me, I have seen absolutley no support for Rmoney here at all. Everyone I talk to is telling me they are voting Obama except for my parents who are repuglican morons but even they said they are not voting and that they could not vote for Rmoney because he is a liar and a cheat. Their own words. Telling people that Rmoney has it locked down because of a few polls is just not smart. Most of those polls do not account for early voting which is in our favor and even more impressive this election year then it was in 2008.

[barbtries]

44. thank you DemKittyNC

that's what i'm talking about. this is real. we'll find out Tuesday (hopefully that is) but i am extremely encouraged.

[DemKittyNC]

46. Very welcome!

and Thank You for all your hard work as well. It is greatly appreciated!!! Come Tuesday, North Carolina will be BLUE!

[Daniel537]

55. Taking anecdotal evidence at face value is not very bright.

I'm sure there are plenty of people in Malibu and Manhattan who have never met a Republican, but that don't mean they don't exist. Like it or not, polls, when used to determine trends, are usually right and unfortunately for us the trend in NC is Romney. Nate has it as a 79% probability of going for Romney for a reason.

[DemKittyNC]

57. Taking polls at face value isn't very bright either...

Polls are bought and sold to the highest bidder. I would take someone's word for it that is living it at ground zero then some "scientific poll" any day. I am not the only one from N.C. seeing this kind of positive reinforcement for President Obama either. You will get the same story from anyone on here who lives in North Carolina who is honest about their experiences and surrounding environment. The positivity around here for Obama is off the chats this Election Year. Back in 2008 there was McCain/Palin yard signs, bumper stickers EVERYWHERE. People were talking about McCain/Palin in positive tones and were all set to vote for them. It was sickening to be around anyone around here back in 2008. This year, not a peep in favor of Rmoney. No signs, no bumper stickers. If anyone talks about the election I have notice it is all bad things about Rmoney and great things for Obama. Most of those "polls" you are putting your faith in do not account for early voting at all which has already surpassed 2008 for both Dems and African-American Dems getting out to the polls and voting. The only way this State is going red this year is if they steal it big time. Which as we all know is possible of course but I am not even thinking about that. I refuse to be a doom and gloomer and scream we are all fucked or give up hope on my own State just because some "polls" are leaning towards Rmoney. For the people who are believing in this Doom and Gloom situation well, that just isn't very bright.

[barbtries]

73. well put DemKittyNC!

we just can't give up because of some bullshit polls. as Lex said, all the nay-saying gets on my nerves.

[marions ghost]

77. I'll take your word for it

[lindysalsagal]

56. If you're right, I'm gonna need fresh underwear tuesday night

after I pee my pants laughing.....

[chapel hill dem]

52. Latest detailed update from early and absentee voting in NC

As of today:

No votes for a specific candidate have been counted yet.
Note: As a life-long North Carolinian, I need to point out that registration and voting patterns are not the same. Many registered Democrats are older blue dogs (conservative) and the unaffiliated voters are all over the map any given year. Anyone to call themselves "republican" is a real republican.
The last column in the 2012 list is the change in % "market share" from 2008 to 2012 calculated in %

Looking forward to a huge ground game!


2008 Registered Democrats 1,347,703 51.56%
Registered Republicans 783,492 29.98%
Unaffiliated Voters 480,823 18.40%
Libertarian 1,791 0.07%
Total 2,613,809

2012 Registered Democrats 1,300,775 47.67% - 7.54%
Registered Republicans 858,724 31.47% + 4.97%
Unaffiliated Voters 563,139 20.64% + 12.17%
Libertarian 6,017 0.22%
Total 2,728,655


More detail at source:
http://www.carolinatransparency.com/votetracker/

sorry about the formatting!

[Dixie Darlin]

58. NC

Hi everyone! I have been looking all day for some place to express my anger on! An FB friend told me to come here..LOL

I am in NC and this is a quirky state!

I think we have it, just from what I have seen in the Greensboro area.

But as you said, we have a lot of Blue Dogs here and that has me worried. I know McCrory has it won, but that doesn't mean the whole state is going repub!

I want a mandate! I want NC!!

Local news is not helpful on this! All I hear is Romnoid is winning. I just can't accept that, as I have seen too many people voting here in Greensboro that I know are not voting for the liar! My friend and I have driven around in the last several days to polling areas and it is predominately AA voters! Which gives us hope!
Anyone working on the campaign here would be helpful! Neither of us can sleep at night. We are wound tighter than a clock!
Sorry If my first post is nuts! I am just really wound up!

[NCarolinawoman]

60. Good to see you here!

You are up very early in the morning, at least from my point of view.

[barbtries]

74. welcome to DU Dixie Darlin

DU is the place for a blue NCarolinian.

[marions ghost]

78. hey Dixie Darlin

welcome

yep NC is a toss-up IMO

[OBAMAWILLWIN]

59. awesome - lets win NC!!!

I always thought we had a shot at NC but the right wing nut jobs all say NC was in their column. OBAMA/BIDEN 2012

[barbtries]

68. maybe that was part of the plan

let the republicans get complacent and vacuum up the votes while they're busy elsewhere? i don't know, but i know we have a chance! i know we do.

[obamanut2012]

66. NC early voting is "one stop"

You can register and vote at the same time, and those voters aren't counted in the "who voted" numbers. Or so my BoE told me when I asked. So, all those college kids in Raleigh-Durham-Chapel Hill, Charlotte, Greensboro, Asheville, Boone, etc. haven't been counted. All of those new minority voters haven't, either.

Also, I am registered as Unaffiliated, and I voted for Obama/Biden and then straight ticket Dem. My father is a registered Republican, and he voted exactly as I did.

Too many constant Romney TV ads and robocalls for him to be up by 2.5% in internal polls. No way.

[barbtries]

67. it's so great to hear.

i'm on the edge of my seat til the election and i know i'm not alone.

[whttevrr]

69. Just FYI...

I was registered as a Republican for more than 20 years. I am disgusted by what has become the Republican Party. I voted for Obama in 2008 and was going to keep my affiliation to be a spoiler in Republican Primaries.

But... When I voted in this years primary. The person checking me in called out "He's Republican" to the person giving out the ballot materials. I cringed. In that moment I remember looking over my shoulder to see if anyone heard what he called me. I felt shamed.

I changed my registration that day. I thought it did not matter what party I was in before that moment. But in that moment of shame I knew that I could not be a part of the party that has become a fun house mirror reflection of how it started. http://whateverworks4you.blogspot.com/2012/07/new-american-independent.html

I do not think I will ever vote republican again. What the Republicans have done to Our President, and Our Country, disgusts me to my core. It is not funny anymore. I can't just laugh at the loony right and and be a part of such a hatefulness. And, I do not believe I am the only one who feels this way.

I believe more Republicans will vote for President Obama than most can imagine. I am one of them who cannot be a part of their madness anymore. I am not alone.

Our President deserves another term

Thank you barbtries for your efforts. They are not in vain; because if not for anything else, you have shown me that there is reason to hope. Your efforts have directly touched the hearts of many seen and unseen. You are a hero.

Thank You!

[barbtries]

72. i love your post!

you should put this in an OP.

it really validates my feeling about the republicans since the disaster of the bush presidency. i have often wondered whether they weren't embarrassed to be republican. now i know: yes!

glad to have you on board as a democrat voting for democrats whttevrr!

i don't think i'm any kind of hero - others have done so much, day in and day out for the duration of the campaign. but i thank you for your kind words.

[marions ghost]

79. great post

The R party is not what it used to be--it's been hijacked...

2012 = Sanity v Insanity

(no matter what your affiliation or non)