Staggering over the Finish Line: Latest NBC Poll Shows Massive Clinton Nosedive in California

[LizetteWest]

Last edited Thu Jun 2, 2016, 11:11 AM - Edit history (1)

After leading by double digits in poll after poll, Clinton's lead has totally evaporated to Bernie Sanders in the Golden state. If Secretary Clinton happens to lose this extremely diverse state by double digits, it will be seen as a embarrassment of epic proportions.



California Democratic Presidential Primary NBC/WSJ/Marist Clinton 49, Sanders 47

UPDATE: California Democratic Presidential Primary Field Clinton 45, Sanders 43 Clinton +2


http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/latest_polls/

[HassleCat]

1. She's worried enough to go there and campaign.

I don't think she would lose by enough to put the nomination in danger, but it would look bad.

[CorporatistNation]

33. WHEN She LOSES... The Clinton Campaign WILL Be On Shaky Ground And The SD's WILL Take Notice!

Hillary is a "clinker" and is bedraggled by her own actions, behaviors lies and mis-statements over the past 25-30 years....

e.g., MSNBC To the deniers... Watch THIS Video... It is not comforting to think that she may well be the Democratic Nominee...

Hillary really betrayed Andrea Mitchell... The entire context of this report was of a solemn nature... A Funeral so to speak...

Andrea Mitchell "I do not see this report as ...ANYTHING BUT... DEVASTATING!"

Chuck Todd "After this I don't think that she could get confirmed for Attorney General!"

Lots of FIBBING by Hillary here.. for more than a year!

[yeoman6987]

57. It depends on how she deals with her speech after getting the nomination after NJ

If she immediately speaks before polls close in California and makes a huge deal of winning the nomination. She may save herself and Americans MIGHT shrug off the California results. I think it is how she deals with things.

[lagomorph777]

64. If she claims victory before CA, she will hurt herself even more.

It would be a huge FU to the GE voters in CA.

[frylock]

78. A west coast Sanders sweep would make for some poor optics.

[msongs]

2. a clinton loss it a clinton win unless it is by 40 pts nt

[brooklynite]

3. Editorial commentary from a right-wing website...

...and ONE poll as opposed to a scan of all the polls from the last month.

[LenaBaby61]

7. The MANY....

Margins of Error throughout the polling is--how can I say--interesting.

I'll stick with Nate Silver's prediction about who'll win California.

[lancer78]

13. Nate

is not doing too hot this year with Democratic Primaries.

[frylock]

79. What's he predicting? A 91% chance of victory? 92?

[jfern]

11. Field poll also has her up only 2, and it's the gold standard of California polling

[still_one]

55. Field is a good pollster. The +2 is probably pretty close. There will be no blowout in

California. I believe the final result will be within a 10 spread.

Those who have been registered Democrats since the last election favor Hillary. Mail in votes favor Hillary, and I think those will comprise about 20% of the total votes. Newly registered voters favor Bernie.

It will be a competitive race in California

[LenaBaby61]

81. Never saw an 18 point win....

More like a 5-7 point win.

We'll see on Tuesday

[nbsmom]

82. Field apparently doesn't know about polling CA.

These are anecdotal, but probably still as meaningful as anything Field pulls out of thin air.

HRC events in CA are small.
Bernie events are YUGE.

Even though HRC has been hitting the CA ATM for months now, I've barely seen any yard signs for her (one, maybe two?).
Lots of Bernie yard signs and bumper stickers on the freeway and throughout the neighborhoods where I drive.

And not sure how you're coming to your conclusions about mail-in and early voters going for Hillary. I'm voting tomorrow, and I'm the last one in my household. All three of us were registered Democrats in 2012, and all three of us are voting for Bernie in 2016.

Remember, in 2008, the CA primary moved to March so our votes would "count," but it had an overall effect of suppressing turnout (and Hillary did win that one, IIRC). Because CA results are actually going to matter this time, I think results on Tuesday could really surprise everyone...

[Dem2]

76. Seeing that far too often.

And Bernie practically has that 50 point lead that he needs, I think Clinton supporters should all be worried

[emulatorloo]

4. Thanks for joining!

To share this poll!

[LizetteWest]

19. Thanks, glad to be here!

[emulatorloo]

47. It is a great discussion board, you will love it!

[Snarkoleptic]

6. A new poster who's not a Clinton-Brockbot?!?

I'm horrified...Katie bar the door!

[Land of Enchantment]

29. yeah, someone with deep pockets in bernie's camp...lol

[LonePirate]

8. For comparison, here are the 2008 CA primary polls with Clinton and Obama.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/ca/california_democratic_primary-259.html#polls

[grasswire]

9. welcome Lizette!

Thanks for the post.

[LizetteWest]

18. Thanks, Your welcome!

Seems very hostile if you do not favor the establishment candidate here though.

[madokie]

21. Ignore is your friend

last I counted I have so many on ignore that I'm ashamed to even say the number but I do get some peace and quiet this way, plus I don't have to wade through a bunch of shit to get where I want to go. I have both Hill and Bernie supports on that list too but I have to admit that its mostly a list of Hillary supporters though. I'm not here to defend my every word, I'm here to share my thoughts.

Welcome to DU LizetteWest

[reddread]

40. I released all my captives a few months ago

strangely a few of them seem to have vanished.
others nearly.
but once the brigade arrived, and the conversation drooped
into a gutter of garbage,
it became a matter of sanitation to remove some of the ugly pointless
remark makers from the landscape.
just dont waste your time on time wasters.
life is short.

[Lizzie Poppet]

41. I thought about doing that, but the process is laborious.

It refreshes the screen, displays a confirmation dialogue, and makes you scroll down to pick the next one. Given that I have about 300 on Ignore (previous to the primaries: 5), that hit "oh, fuck it" territory in short order. I asked Skinner about a mass edit function (checkboxes + confirmation), but he didn't want the process to be easy.

So screw it. Easier to just bail when the crackdown hits.

[reddread]

42. all the ignore in the world wont stop the night of the long knives

[Lizzie Poppet]

44. Yep. Time to go.

The site remains a reflection of the party...only that's not a good thing any more.

[reddread]

46. Democratic Landfill

can you imagine this message board with nothing but pro-Hillary posts?
might be interesting to witness.
I dont think we are gonna get there.
Much like Nixon didnt quite make it through his second term.
the parallels continue into the distance and past the horizon.

[brush]

54. That's one way to look at it. Another is a site with pro-Democratic Party posters

I for one will be glad to be rid of the posters who constantly trash the party.

It's be time to work against Trump and the repugs.

[reddread]

59. time to finish the job she started in Libya

oh the glory ahead!


assuming it all works out that way.
which I aint. for the record.

[brush]

60. So you'll be one of the ones leaving?

[reddread]

61. leaving why?

[brush]

62. After the DC primary no more Dem party and Clinton trashing posts, that's why I asked.

[reddread]

63. Im sure they have a way of mopping up

something to look forward to.

[Matt_R]

86. Oh you may have missed Skinners post...

http://www.democraticunderground.com/10135833

I am just so tired of people bashing each other and bashing Democrats on this website. I know the hardcore partisans will try to paint this whole thing through the Hillary vs Bernie lens, and drive that wedge as hard as they can, but that is just so not where I am at right now. I don't care who anyone has supported in the primaries -- I really don't. As long as you treat your fellow DU members with respect, stop tearing down Democratic public figures (including Hillary Clinton and Bernie Sanders and everyone else), and don't advocate for Donald Trump or some lost-cause third-party spoiler candidate, then you'll be fine.

So as I take it no Bernie bashing, or any other Democrat bashing allowed. We need to take the fight to the republicans and get the Senate, House of Representatives back and keep the Presidency.

[Demsrule86]

10. Hardly

Obama lost California...she does not even need california...Jersey will put her over.

[azurnoir]

12. There are 614 delegates from NJ?

[lancer78]

15. She only needs

293 more PLEDGED delegates to get a majority of ALL bound delegates. NJ won't put her over the top, but she can lose California and still have a majority of bound delegates.

[azurnoir]

16. No she needs 614

[Tiggeroshii]

17. 293 is right.

2026 is the magic number for majority of bound delegates.

Bernie needs 525. There are 920 left, I believe.

[azurnoir]

20. Linky please because my sources say 2383 pledged delegates are needed

[HarmonyRockets]

24. Nope.

2383 delegates are needed. Not 2383 pledged delegates.

[MFM008]

26. 73

Is the magic number and the media can't wait to call it as soon as she hits it just like they did Trump.

[Fawke Em]

43. That's with Super Delegates, who have never counted in

media prognostications until this year.

[onenote]

50. Your statement is, of course, utter nonsense.

I could probably post 100 articles, but just one will do:

http://www.mcclatchydc.com/news/politics-government/article24485416.html

[nbsmom]

83. Hillary and the media counted the superdelegates in her total BEFORE anyone anywhere had voted.

THAT is the big difference this cycle.

[onenote]

84. Still wrong

The first primaries in the 2008 election cycle were held in January 2008.

Here's a story reporting on Superdelegate commitments in November 2007.

http://www.nytimes.com/2007/11/08/us/politics/08delegates.html?_r=0

And here's an AP story from December 2007. http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2007/12/02/AR2007120200746.html

And here's a site that shows when Superdelegates endorsed Obama and Clinton -- dozens did so in 2007. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Democratic_Party_superdelegates,_2008

[Demsrule86]

85. I can not wait...like a kid at Christmas. nt

[anotherproletariat]

14. Yes, please keep spreading this around...time to lower expectations. nt

[marions ghost]

22. Go California

We are counting on you.

[ucrdem]

23. But she's still ahead and she'll stay ahead.

And she'll win without us if she has too. People used to wonder why she was always so anxious to nail down SDs early. Well, now we know.

[MariaThinks]

77. apparently, Hillary needs to win by 60+ support. Bernie at 40% is considered a win by some.

[Major Hogwash]

25. Well, that's how I like my Victory Pie . . epic proportions!!

Bernie is going to win California.
According to ABC's "World News Now", Bernie is tied with Hillary and the difference between them is within the margin of error of the poll!!!!

Go Bernie!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[MFM008]

27. Doesn't matter

D E L E G A T E S
matter. That is all.

[ReRe]

28. Welcome to our bedlam

They have been saying all week on TV that there's supposed to be another important poll coming out today (Thursday.) Hang on to your hat. It's going to be a bumpy ride until Tues.

[beachbum bob]

30. doesn't matter, she won the nomination

california primary really not important when you have already won

[Matt_R]

87. Ok 35 million people under the bus!!

Thanks!!!

[Land of Enchantment]

31. You have been reading us--we are in awe of your astuteness--ever heard of JPR? nt

[Major Hogwash]

32. I love the "doesn't matter" comments here at the DU.

It's almost as if they don't understand math!

[geek tragedy]

34. irrelevant. She's going to be the nominee, and he is not, because democracy nt

[bigwillq]

35. Hello.

Welcome to DU!

[JoePhilly]

36. If Hillary is staggering to the finnish line, Bernie is crawling, and not going to reach it at all.

[GreatGazoo]

38. probably because THAT line is in Finland (?)

[Herman4747]

48. I wonder if he gets it? n/t

[SidDithers]

37. Welcome to DU...

Sid

[B Calm]

39. It's been a very long time since California has had a say in the primary. Look for a huge turnout!

And we all know huge turnouts favor Bernie!

[tonyt53]

51. Only at a caucus.

[B Calm]

52. Welcome to du tony. You replied, so you know I'm right. The Democratic establishment

is starting to worry too.

[still_one]

56. This is not going to be a blowout for any candidate

[B Calm]

65. That's too bad for Hillary. She needed a blowout. This will go to the convention!

[still_one]

67. No, Sanders needed the 30%+.

[B Calm]

68. They both did!

[still_one]

70. No they don't. Sorry, but he is not going to overcome the pledged delegate count

and the majority of the SD will go with the candidate that has the most pledged delegates.

but you are entitled to believe whatever you want, despite the numbers

[B Calm]

72. We both know this is going to be a contested convention. Denial is not just a river!

[DefenseLawyer]

58. California was part of "Super Tuesday" in 2008. The primary was in February.

Not that that has much impact of turnout this time. All indications are that turnout will be high.

[Tarc]

45. That's what we call an "outlier", esp after months of consistency

Nice try.

[LizetteWest]

69. Hi Tarc, I believe this nullifies your argument.

California Democratic Presidential Primary Field Clinton 45, Sanders 43 Clinton +2

[onenote]

49. which poll, olther than the one in your imagination, shows Clinton losing by "double digits"?

[LizetteWest]

66. I just updated the post with a new California poll

California Democratic Presidential Primary Field Clinton 45, Sanders 43 Clinton +2

[B Calm]

71. Not enough. Polls have been under estimating Bernie for months. If it's this close,

I look for a Bernie win. She needed a big win to keep this from becoming a contested convention. That's not gonna happen!

[LizetteWest]

73. I think if you look back at polling, you can conclude Bernie should win by 15

He trailed in Wisconsin by 6 a week out and won by 15
Michigan, he was down 20 plus and won by 2


You can look at almost every state a week out and he out performs most polls by 10 to 20 points.

[B Calm]

74. He was suppose to lose Michigan and Indiana too.

[LizetteWest]

75. Yes, Indiana is another example where he out performed polls by double digits.

[frylock]

80. Yep. You can probably add 10+ to Bernie.