Drunken Irishman's Final 2012 Electoral College Prediction

[Drunken Irishman]

Well here it is ... my final prediction. We'll see how close I come!



I have Obama winning almost every swing state sans Arizona and Missouri. Romney's advantage in Florida and North Carolina is razor thin and will ultimately come down to voter turnout. You can essentially call those states a tie, but because Romney leads, I'll give him the benefit of the doubt and award him both electoral votes.

Surprisingly, Obama will win Ohio by 5.5 points - 1.5 better than his '08 total.

Bottom line - Obama will win 300-plus electoral votes and can expand his lead if he gets some breaks in NC or Florida.

The results in many states will be close, therefore we're probably in for a long night before enough states are called to put Obama over the 269 needed to win. Of course, many of the margins are good enough that a great deal of these states could be called within an hour or two of closing.

We'll see. But Obama wins.

[smorkingapple]

1. I have exactly the same outcome but allow for losing CO too

Just feel that state might tip Romney barely.

[FarPoint]

2. I bookmarked the Thread.

[johnlucas]

3. Too low. Put Obama's count nearer to 400 like say 385 or something

After all, that makes for a MUCH better LANDSLIDE performance.
John Lucas

[Brewinblue]

4. Wow!

Your map is identical to mine, all fifty states and DC exactly the same. I've been thinking 303 for weeks now, but I hope it's not that close.

[Tribetime]

5. I'm with Drunken but hope Florida goes our way

[fearnobush]

6. I don't see PA being that close. I believe the you gov number of plus 8 is more in line with PA

Reality. Otherwise, I see 303 quite reasonable. Ohio will be a little closer, but Florida, I believe is a true toss up. It could come down to ~5000 votes.


On Edit: if Virginia is called for Obama early Tuesday night, it's in the bag.

[littlemissmartypants]

7. I am visualizing

NC blue and sunny skies ahead. Well done. Thank you. LMSP

[naviman]

8. I made the same map

with FL and NC going for Romney months ago. It's amazing how it's changed so little. I think there's a chance we can pull of NC by a razor thin margin again though.

[hrmjustin]

9. Great prediction my friend.

[Iggy]

10. BUMP...

One of the few reasonable, sane prognostications I've seen thus far.

[Journeyman]

11. Well, that would certainly be a nice outcome. . .

We'll see. However, I do agree: Obama wins. The margin will be but a detail.