Bombshell: Clinton aide claims that if Bernie wins California he wins the nomination

[Playinghardball]

The Wall Street Journal Published a bombshell analysis today from a Clinton Pollster, Doug Shoen, explaining that Hillary may lose the nomination if she loses to Bernie in California.

There is now more than a theoretical chance that Hillary Clinton may not be the Democratic nominee for president.

How could that happen, given that her nomination has been considered a sure thing by virtually everyone in the media and in the party itself? Consider the possibilities.

The inevitability behind Mrs. Clinton’s nomination will be in large measure eviscerated if she loses the June 7 California primary to Bernie Sanders. That could well happen.

A recent PPIC poll shows Mrs. Clinton with a 2% lead over Mr. Sanders, and a Fox News survey found the same result. Even a narrow win would give him 250 pledged delegates or more—a significant boost. California is clearly trending to Mr. Sanders, and the experience in recent open primaries has been that the Vermont senator tends to underperform in pre-election surveys and over-perform on primary and caucus days, thanks to the participation of new registrants and young voters.

To this end, data from mid-May show that there were nearly 1.5 million newly registered Democratic voters in California since Jan. 1. That’s a 218% increase in Democratic voter registrations compared with the same period in 2012, a strongly encouraging sign for Mr. Sanders.

A Sanders win in California would powerfully underscore Mrs. Clinton’s weakness as a candidate in the general election. Democratic superdelegates—chosen by the party establishment and overwhelmingly backing Mrs. Clinton, 543-44—would seriously question whether they should continue to stand behind her candidacy.

There is every reason to believe that at the convention Mr. Sanders will offer a rules change requiring superdelegates to vote for the candidate who won their state’s primary or caucus. A vote on that proposed change would almost certainly occur—and it would function as a referendum on the Clinton candidacy. If Mr. Sanders wins California, Montana and North Dakota on Tuesday and stays competitive in New Jersey, he could well be within 200 pledged delegates of Mrs. Clinton, making a vote in favor of the rules change on superdelegates more likely.

Another problem: In recent weeks the perception that Mrs. Clinton would be the strongest candidate against Donald Trump has evaporated. The Real Clear Politics polling average has Mrs. Clinton in a statistical tie with Mr. Trump, and recent surveys from ABC News/Washington Post and Fox News show her two and three points behind him, respectively.


http://marshallreport.com/2016/06/02/bombshell-clinton-aide-claims-that-if-bernie-wins-california-he-wins-the-nomination/

[itsrobert]

1. Lol Bill Clinton pollster in the 1990s

Who urge Obama to move to the right in 2014.

A real bombshell. Not.

[rhett o rick]

11. Can you spell Ad Hominem? LOL.

[yellowcanine]

34. I think he was just pointing out that is misleading to say "Clinton aide"

And it is. "Former Clinton aide" would have been more accurate.

Oh, and it is clearly an opinion piece, so the credentials of the individual are important.
And it seems to me that it is less of a bombshell if the person in fact is not a Clinton aide.

[LoverOfLiberty]

42. Can you spell

f-a-n-t-a-s-y?

[rhett o rick]

43. Yes, Clinton Aristocracy Fantasy.

[lagomorph777]

30. "LOL" - (adj.) lahl - backed into a rhetorical corner; got nothin'. syn: ROFL

Never mind the content; just dismiss it with a cheery "LOL" and you will impress people with your rapier wit.

[Gomez163]

2. Doug Schoen is a Fox News Democrat. Ignore him.

[YouDig]

8. ...and Berners are trying to pretend they are the "progressives".

[Zen Democrat]

45. Lanny Davis has been a long-time Fox News Democrat. He's Go Go Clinton.

[Arkansas Granny]

3. Keep on dreaming. That is so not going to happen.

[rhett o rick]

12. We aren't dreaming of a Clinton Aristocracy, we are fighting for freedom from the domination

of Corp-America. Some apparently are willing to give up their freedoms and liberties for the weak promise of security or maybe they just like to side with the Big Corp Bully.

[Arkansas Granny]

16. No, some of us are accepting the reality of the situation. Hillary Clinton will be the Democratic

nominee. The super delegates are not going to ignore the large lead she has over Bernie Sanders and award him the nomination just because he and his followers think he has a better chance of beating Donald Trump. We are not giving up any freedoms or liberties.

Bernie has fought hard and has a lot of good ideas, however, many of his ideas are not realistic. He has been given an opportunity to influence the party platform during the convention, but he will not be the nominee.

[madokie]

61. Bernie will be our next President

Hide and watch.

BTW: What ideas of Bernie's are not realistic? Pray tell...

[findrskeep]

4. K & R nt

[Lucinda]

5. LOL n/t

[lagomorph777]

31. "LOL" - (adj.) lahl - backed into a rhetorical corner; got nothin'. syn: ROFL

PPP?

[Fast Walker 52]

6. I would put more faith into this if it weren't in the execrable WSJ

[YouDig]

7. "Even a narrow win would give him 250 pledged delegates or more". How dumb can someone be?

Not mentioning Hillary would also get 225 delegates in that scenario, meaning Bernie only really picks up 25. Which would mean Hillary still leads by 250 pledged delegates overall, not to mention the amount she picks up in NJ and DC next week.

This is the pinnacle of #berniemath.

[Tarc]

9. Yep, losing California in 2008 was really the deal-breaker for Obama's candidacy

[frylock]

22. That was in February.

Not the home stretch.

[Tarc]

23. Oh, you mean this home stretch?

Hillary - PA, IN, WVa, KY, PR, SD
Obama - NC, OR, MT

A +44 for Hillary?

How'd that work out?

[frylock]

25. Worked out well for Obama, considering he wasn't under investigation by the FBI.

[Tarc]

33. You don't say...

[frylock]

44. You were the one brought up Obama.

[Tarc]

46. Yes, I did, when pointing out that late-season primary losses are not an indicator

of general election success or failure. You then pulled "oh yea, but but but....FBI! So neener neener!" out of your ass.

[frylock]

47. Hillary is no Obama.

[auntpurl]

49. You're right.

She's further ahead of Bernie than Obama was EVER ahead of her.

[frylock]

51. That was prior to DWS' reign of terror.

[auntpurl]

52. Sure. That's why Bernie's lost the primary.

Because of DWS. Ok.

[frylock]

55. It's not like her thumb was on the scale or anything.

Look what he's accomplished with the deck stacked against him. On an even playing field, your candidate would've been dust months ago.

[Tarc]

66. Sanders is no Obama

[OilemFirchen]

48. Actually, he was fending off a much meatier scandal.

Remember how Tony Rezko was going to end Obama's campaign?

How did that work out?

[SFnomad]

10. Bait and switch going on here

Notice the headline says "if he wins CA he wins the nomination", the article says "if she loses CA she may not win the nomination"

[auntpurl]

50. Another bait and switch:

This is a former BILL Clinton pollster, not a current HILLARY Clinton pollster as the title implies.

[SFnomad]

56. Good catch n/t

[Surya Gayatri]

13. Codswallop...bullpucky...claptrap...blatherskite...hogwash...

taradiddle...tommyrot...twaddle...piffle... poppycock...and that's not the half of it! LOL!

But, feel free to believe!

[NCTraveler]

35. You just about covered it. lol. nt.

[jwirr]

14. It would give her a good way to back out gracefully and take

the spotlight off of her problems. A closely contested election is better than being thrown out by the super-delegates or trounced by Trump or being impeached if she somehow won.

[Arkansas Granny]

17. Hillary is not going to back out and she's going to kick some Trump ass in the GE.

[madokie]

62. Dream on Neighbor

LOL. I laugh because there is no way that Hill can come out ahead. if it wasn't for shenanigans and out right voter fraud at polling places in a number of states would she even be able to say she's ahead at this point in time.
No, Hillary Clinton will never be elected President of these United States of America. No matter how much many here want to see that it ain't going to happen.

[Arkansas Granny]

63. I hope you're not too disappointed when your prophecy fails.

[madokie]

65. Not a chance that one is going to happen

so no I'm not going to be disappointed, rather I'm going to be doing the happy dance and thats says a lot for an old oxygen dependent man who really can't dance anyway

Bernie is what this country and world needs right now

[mmonk]

15. If that is true, we need to ride our horses hard.

[NCTraveler]

29. How much longer can you beat those horses?

[mmonk]

36. As long as the middle class and poor can be.

[NCTraveler]

39. Fight Fight Fight.

Lets do it and make society a more just place.

[lunamagica]

18. "If Mr. Sanders wins California, Montana and North Dakota on Tuesday and stays competitive in

If Mr. Sanders wins California, Montana and North Dakota on Tuesday and stays competitive in New Jersey, he could well be within 200 pledged delegates of Mrs. Clinton, making a vote in favor of the rules change on superdelegates more likely. If Mr. Sanders wins California, Montana and North Dakota on Tuesday and stays competitive in New Jersey, he could well be within 200 pledged delegates of Mrs. Clinton, making a vote in favor of the rules change on superdelegates more likely."

Not happening, not even if this fantasy scenario came true. Obama's lead in '08 was way less than 200, and he won the nomination.

Keep dreaming...

[leeroysphitz]

19. We shall see. n/t

[NCTraveler]

20. I'm going to do my part in reconciliation.

And not mock this as it deserves.

[Bleacher Creature]

21. Really? That guy??

The one who wrote this:

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2010/11/12/AR2010111202846.html

Or this?

http://www.politico.com/story/2011/12/nh-voters-should-draft-hillary-070623

Doug Schoen is a Fox News/WSJ "Democrat" whose sole function is to undermine the election of Democrats by sowing discord regarding the party's nominee. Hillary was a great foil for him in 2012 when he was attacking Obama. Now that she's the nominee, he throws his lot in with Sanders, Biden, etc.

Do you really not see the pattern?

[jcgoldie]

24. uhhhm

So if superdelegates are required to vote for the candidate who won their states primary or caucus... it doesnt change the outcome. She still wins... by a rather large margin... even if he won California.

All of this analysis reminds me of a college basketball coach calling all of his timeouts to stop the clock in the final minute of a game his team is losing by 20 points... its just a waste of everyone's time.

[SidDithers]

26. ...

All of a sudden, Berners love Doug Schoen.

Sid

[Gothmog]

27. Shoen is a fox news hack who ceased to work for Democrats a long time ago

[Dem2]

38. Huh, thanks for the info

Why are fellow Democrats trying to deceive us?

[auntpurl]

54. I'll give you two guesses.

And one doesn't count.

[Mike Nelson]

28. This post is so...

...funny. Thanks for the laugh!

[RandySF]

32. Uhhhhh ok

[eastwestdem]

37. This is hilarious. But, if it makes you sleep at night...

feel free to believe it. I would stock up on Ambien, though, for next week.

[SharonClark]

40. That title is hilarious. And WRONG!

[Adrahil]

41. Well, let's see how this work out...

Look here:

http://DemRace.com/?share=DE3wnbMR

Have Bernie winning every race except New Jersey and DC.

I have him winning CA by 10 points.

Guess what? He still comes up about 200 delegates short.

The dude is FINISHED. There is NO FREAKING WAY (short of the indictment fairy) that the supers will overturn a 200 delegate advantage for a main stream Democratic candidate. That's just delusional.

[JoePhilly]

53. Breaking: Fox News wants to run against Bernie.

[hrmjustin]

57. This is the same guy who said Obama should not run for a second term.

[MFM008]

58. I always believe everything in a Murdoch Rag

and of course ALL the polls.

[Renew Deal]

59. Oh yeah. Give me another hit of that stuff

Oh it's so good.

[riversedge]

60. Since When is Shoen a 'Clinton aide'???? Nope. He is just a commentator

[Beacool]

64. Shoen is a Clinton aide?

[JoePhilly]

70. OP appears to be lying, or disconnected from reality.

The OP could easily clear it up.

[NorthCarolina]

67. If Bernie ends up with more pledged delegates than Hillary, they know it would be the

end of the party to put Hillary over the top with SD's. I think a realization is setting in, that Bernie frick'in Sanders is beating the Clinton/DNC machine.

[baldguy]

69. Clicked expecting an OP full of bullshit; was not disappointed.