Predictwise gives Sanders a 5% chance of winning the Dem nomination.

[thesquanderer]

That's more than I'd expected, and actually up a bit from where it's been, it was down at 2% on the 29th.

[B Calm]

1. University with 100% accuracy predicts Bernie Sanders next POTUS.

http://firebrandleft.com/university-100-accuracy-record-predicts-bernie-sanders-will-americas-next-president/

[thesquanderer]

5. Yeah, but "past performance does not guarantee future results."

There are lots of reasons not to put stock in this one. Also their predictions are already way off:

The WIU mock election, in which thousands of students from multiple schools form parties and caucuses and play out a small-scale election over the course of several days, has Bernie Sanders beating Hillary Clinton in 22 out of 26 primary states; Hillary Clinton survives past Super Tuesday, but loses out before the month of March is concluded.

[SCantiGOP]

27. But it's Western Illinois University

That's certainly the first source of information I would look for in election analysis.

[Lord Magus]

7. That "accuracy" is based on postdiction.

They tweaked their model until they found a way to fit both the actual outcomes of previous elections and their desired outcome for this one. They also got their primary result predictions laughably wrong, saying that he would get 100% of delegates in states he ended up losing and that he'd states he lost in landslides.

[grossproffit]

11. They also had Bush as the nominee.

[B Calm]

12. Did they say Jeb would win the Potus?

No

[grossproffit]

13. Um, okay. Carry on.

[Tarc]

24. That's about as statistically valid as that squid that predicts Superbowl winners

[eastwestdem]

26. There goes their average... nt

[Trust Buster]

2. So you're saying that he has a chance..........LOL

[thesquanderer]

4. I'm saying that Predictwise says he has a 5% chance. (n/t)

Last edited Sat Jun 4, 2016, 07:29 AM - Edit history (1)

[Trust Buster]

6. I was joking. It was a Jim Carey line in Dumb and Dumber.

[thesquanderer]

14. Ah! Sorry I missed the joke, never saw the movie! (n/t)

[ciaobaby]

3. you are aware this means absolutely nothing ?

[baldguy]

8. It shows the ludicrous desperation on the part of the Sanders camp.

[B Calm]

9. Link?

[thesquanderer]

17. Sure...

www.predictwise.com

it changes all the time, but you can click "more data" and see where it was on different days.

[B Calm]

18. Nope, fail F-

[thesquanderer]

19. I don't understand your post, can you explain?

I don't understand how giving you the web site with the data can possibly be a fail. It says 4% at the moment, but you can click "more data" and see that it was 5% at 2:34 this morning, which is what it was when I posted. It does fluctuate. I was surprised to see it as high as 5% last night, after being as low as 2% in the recent past. Even 4% is surprising.

[Betty Karlson]

10. Which justifies his continued campaign.

So Skinner, will you reconsider June 16 please?

[DrDan]

16. that dwindles to nothing after Tuesday's delegates are counted - it's over

[thesquanderer]

20. predicting predictwise

re: "that dwindles to nothing after Tuesday's delegates are counted"

I think if he loses CA, it will drop down to 1%, 2% tops on Tuesday. If he wins CA and does reasonably well elsewhere, I think it stays up at 4-5%. Of course, it's not a good bet regardless!

[DrDan]

23. no, not a good bet - I would not take 100-1 odds on it

[SCantiGOP]

30. Bernie will have conceded by June 16

[DrDan]

15. yep - that is pretty generous

[thesquanderer]

22. As I said, the page updates all the time. It was 5% when I posted. You can check

the historical data at that same link. Though even 4% is kind of surprisingly high.

[PowerToThePeople]

25. let's see

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/election-2016/primary-forecast/michigan-democratic/

http://www.nytimes.com/elections/results/michigan

[beachbum bob]

28. Sanders supporters should be running to this site

They make big money....wonder why they aren't?hmmm..

[thesquanderer]

29. Predictwise doesn't take bets

But no one should bet more than they're willing to lose... and even Sanders supporters generally agree the odds are against them...