He could have played it safe all the way and called it 53/47 or smthg. But at 85%... If he's wrong he goes off to pursue a career as a bartender/part time Pilates instructor.
Nyt must have assured him they've got his back.

Doctor Jack

(3,072 posts)

3. He is one of the more conservative odds maker

Reply to Polldancer2012 (Reply #2)

Sun Nov 4, 2012, 10:38 PM

Nov 2012

Many of the websites like his, which run the numbers and come up with odds, have Obama at 95%+. Some even have him as high as 99%. Nate Silver's 85.5% is one of the lowest odds we see for Obama.

Cha

(320,548 posts)

4. Or maybe Nate has other mad skills we

Reply to Polldancer2012 (Reply #2)

Sun Nov 4, 2012, 10:39 PM

Nov 2012

know nothing about?

WillyT

(72,631 posts)

5. He Tends To Be... Very Correct... He Believes In Math...

Reply to Polldancer2012 (Reply #2)

Sun Nov 4, 2012, 10:43 PM

Nov 2012

Unlike The MSM...

scheming daemons

(25,487 posts)

6. he plugs in the numbers and they say what they say

Reply to Polldancer2012 (Reply #2)

Sun Nov 4, 2012, 10:47 PM

Nov 2012

Obama leads in every swing state polling except NC and FL.

He leads or is tied in every national poll.

85.5% chance of a win might actually be conservative

courseofhistory

(801 posts)

7. This site is one of the best I think for

Reply to Tennessee Gal (Original post)

Sun Nov 4, 2012, 10:52 PM

Nov 2012

keeping track on election night as the state winner is announced. All you have to do is click on the state icon at the upper part of the page as Obama wins them and then the total EV for that state is added to the total.

[img][/img]

http://apps.npr.org/swing-state-scorecard/

longship

(40,416 posts)

8. Great site! Good iPhone formatting, too.

Reply to courseofhistory (Reply #7)

Sun Nov 4, 2012, 11:47 PM

Nov 2012

Bookmarked for Tuesday.

Wish there was one for Senate and House.

R&

Polldancer2012

(88 posts)

9. Thats awesome

Reply to courseofhistory (Reply #7)

Mon Nov 5, 2012, 01:52 AM

Nov 2012

Will deffo be one of my open tabs tues night

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