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Godhumor

(6,437 posts)
Sat Jun 4, 2016, 11:44 AM Jun 2016

Clinton's odds at presidency rise 7% (62% to 69%) in one day

Completely coinciding with Trump's horrific double down on the "Mexican" judge in the Trump U case and Hillary's slam dunk Trump speech.

The odds will go up again when she secures the nomination and Bernie is removed from the predictive sites. Most, if not, all, of his 4% chance at presidency will be reallocated to Hillary.

http://predictwise.com/politics/2016-president-winner

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qdouble

(891 posts)
2. There should also be a bump once she's endorsed by Obama, Warren, etc, after the primary.
Sat Jun 4, 2016, 11:50 AM
Jun 2016

Probably another bump when Bernie gets around to endorsing her. I suspect the extreme Hillary haters will throw Bernie and the entire democratic party under the bus then, but most sane democrats and center/left independents will jump on board and her probability should be 80-90%.

Arkansas Granny

(31,516 posts)
4. I have to wonder how many of the Republican faithful who are currently endorsing Trump
Sat Jun 4, 2016, 11:52 AM
Jun 2016

will actually pull the lever for him in the privacy of the voting booth.

thesquanderer

(11,986 posts)
5. It hit 73% today, but that's chance of DEM winning, which also includes small chance of Sanders
Sat Jun 4, 2016, 11:58 AM
Jun 2016

Dem had 73% chance of winning on May 9, and dropped down, but is now back up, 72-73% in the last 24 hrs. Last 24 hrs also has 4% to 5% chance of the Dem candidate being Bernie... in fact the chance of Dem victory dropping from 73 to 72 at 6:52 this morning roughly coincided with the odds of Bernie nomination dropping back from 5% to 4% updated at 6:37. So it seems that some of the occasional higher odds of Dem success may also be attributable to variations in the odds of Bernie getting the nom.

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