6/7 Prediction thread?

[Reiyuki]

I don't see any prediction threads yet, lets do it

Put your analytical skills and reputation on the line and post your best assessment of what you think the results will be tomorrow's primaries will be.


California
New Jersey
Montana
North Dakota
New Mexico
South Dakota

[hrmjustin]

1. Hillary wins CA, NJ, and NM. Sanders wins ND and MT.

SD I think will be close.

[beachbumbob]

2. My prediction is simple

Hillary is our nominee....and numbers from Tuesday don't mean anything

[Reiyuki]

13. I'm guessing you already voted then?

It sucks when you live in the wrong state and the party decides to have your primary at the end.

Where do you live? Maybe next time your vote won't mean anything.

[brooklynite]

14. I think the DNC should pass a rule that NO State should go last...it's just not fair

[BobbyDrake]

15. "No state" is going last. Washington, D.C. is a city. nt

[Reiyuki]

16. Snarky ain't we

How about every primary is held on the same day?

How about shuffling at random every season?

How about we go football with some 'wildcard states' to replace IA and NH every time?

[SoCalNative]

27. That would be the ideal

If national elections can take place on the same day, then so should ALL state/district primaries when federal offices are involved. And abolish the useless caucuses. Proper Primaries Elections or don't bother.

[beachbumbob]

32. Illinois...Who picks democratic winners...

[oberliner]

3. Hillary wins NJ, CA is a toss-up

Bernie probably does well in those other low-population states.

[George II]

4. CA (very close), NJ and NM, Sanders ND, SD, and MT. Obama endorses by Friday and....

...Sanders "suspends" shortly after Obama endorses.

[tonyt53]

5. NJ, NM outright to Hillary. MT,ND to Bernie, SD might be Hillary because closed primary.

CA, is a toss up. But after the polls close in NJ, it won't really matter, Hillary with 65% there. No way a Democrat wins ND or MT in November anyway.

[msongs]

6. hillary gives CA to bernie as his going away gift lol nt

[onehandle]

7. At 8 PM Hillary wins New Jersey...

...making the rest, moot.

[Dem2]

8. Going to assume the polls are accurate in CA & NJ

Don't care about the rest after that.

[SFnomad]

9. Game, Set, Match to Secretary Clinton n/t

[RobertEarl]

10. Millions of votes miscounted

And some how, millions added to the H side.

[BootinUp]

11. lol, good grief. nt

[LanternWaste]

12. No doubt, creating your self-fulfilling prophecy this early leaves room for drinking later.

How mentally simplistic it must be. Sanders wins are righteous and pure, Clinton's win only through fraud and deception. How convenient that particular yet consistent irrationality must be to one's carefully-nurtured bias.

No doubt, creating your self-fulfilling prophecy this early leaves room for drinking later.

[NCTraveler]

21. Expectation setting. +1 nt

[Lord Magus]

22. Because you personally didn't vote for Hillary, you think nobody else would either?

Is that it? Or do you just not want to admit she's the more popular candidate?

[RobertEarl]

26. Why do you get off on personal attacks?

What is wrong with you?

Everyone who is anyone, knows the voting machines are owned and controlled by the establishment. Bernie is not establishment, so he gets screwed.

Obama got screwed by about 7 million votes, the math showed.

I guess if one is blind to the fact that votes get stolen, then none of this makes any sense to them and all they are left with is personal attacks on the Truth tellers.

[Lord Magus]

28. That's not math, it's fantasy. Declaring that "everyone knows" doesn't make it true. -nt-

[RobertEarl]

29. You are correct

Everyone knows except you.

[tandem5]

17. If there's a last SurveyUSA it will say +15 for Clinton in California.

and she will actually win California by +13.

[Reiyuki]

18. CA's an interesting one

Polls varying wildly between +1 and +15.

*something* is obviously broke with polling if they are that far apart, maybe cellphone users or some subtle demographic shift or first-time voters?

I wonder where such a huge gap is coming from and which agencies are going to be off by >10pts tomorrow.

[tandem5]

19. It's demographically complex with a huge population.

It's easy to run astray with likely voter models in California when something closer to a basic registered voter sample has proven far more accurate over the years.

[Lord Magus]

23. I think the main issue is polling people who speak little to no English.

They still get to vote, but many pollsters don't even bother surveying them because hiring translators is expensive. And there's a lot more such people in CA than in most states.

[KULawHawk]

20. CA Latinos 44 and younger now..

polling for Sanders at least 68%, according to MSNBC this morning.

[Adrahil]

24. Here goes...

CA - Clinton by 3 points.
NJ - Clinton by 16 points
MT - Sanders by 25
ND - Sanders by 25
NM - Clinton by 5
SD - Sanders by 20

[litlbilly]

25. CA, BS by 15, NJ BS by 1, MONT BA by 18, NM Hill by 1, SD BS by 15

[Sanity Claws]

30. My predictions: the sun will rise in the morning

The sun will set in the evening.
It may or may not rain.

[stone space]

31. I predict that Hillary will get more than 215 delegates. (nt)

[geek tragedy]

33. Sanders wins MT/ND/SD 60-40

Clinton wins NM by 23, NJ by 19, CA by 6

Clinton also wins the endorsements of President Obama and Elizabeth Warren

[Fresh_Start]

34. My prediction: claims of election fraud will occur in at least 2 states.

NJ: Clinton
CA: no matter who wins it won't be decisive because republicans and future trump voters will have impacted the results and their will be many claims about election fraud and 'never going to vote for a democrat' participation in the primary
NM: Clinton
ND,SD,MT: Sanders cause Clinton is gonna take their guns