Bernie could stop Hillary Tomorrow; she needs 3% of the vote, Bernie could get 98% and stop her cold

[RealAmericanDem]

Could happen.

[NanceGreggs]

1. Or Bernie could get ...

... 275% of the vote tomorrow.

According to BernieMath, this is yet another possibility that HRCers keep overlooking.

[dubyadiprecession]

77. BS needs to win Yuge!

[chillfactor]

2. nothing is going to stop Hillary "cold."

Tomorrow she will cinch the nomination even if she loses CA.

[TeamPooka]

18. oh look a brand new member

[senz]

15. Sorry, but she has to win 2383 pledged delegates to win the nomination.

She needs 571 more delegates and it looks impossible, given what's available tomorrow.

[tritsofme]

19. At this point, you must be purposefully obtuse.

[senz]

21. Here honey let me spell it out for you...

Hillary currently has 1812 pledged delegates. To reach 2383, she needs 571 more pledged delegates.

The states that vote on Tuesday and their delegates:

CA -- 475
MT -- 21
NJ -- 126
NM -- 34
ND -- 18
SD -- 20

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/election-2016/delegate-targets/

It is virtually impossible that Hillary could reach 2383 pledged delegates tomorrow from the remaining states.

Therefore, there will be no Democratic nominee tomorrow.

[kayakjohnny]

24. Thank you for that.

You could hit them with all the logic in the world and it would never sink in.

It takes a special kind of mindset to stay locked in like they do.

Bless their misguided little hearts.

If must feel safe in that cushy little bubble.

[tritsofme]

29. LOL...I'm just gonna leave this right here....

[senz]

30. Thank you for being a bright spot in this poor thread. :)

I don't mind well-meaning ignorance but I do mind ignorance wrapped in taunting bully-boy arrogance. There's been an awful lot of that around here.

[Maru Kitteh]

50. Honest question. What will you do when Sanders endorses HRC?

[senz]

53. He won't do so before the convention.

Honest question to you: why do you give a shit what I will be doing in July?

[Maru Kitteh]

94. If he does it before then, which is not just possible, but likely

Are you ready to deal with that, when it happens?

I happen to have faith that his first concern is ultimately in defeating Trump. He will endorse her this month, possibly even this week.

[libdem4life]

98. No we're just going to curl up into little balls and cry ourselves to sleep.

God Lawd...get a grip.

[kayakjohnny]

54. You're welcome.

It is a tough year for an idealist.

People like you help a lot.

I never in my life would have thought that Democrats could go so far right as to practically be Republicans.

But that is what has happened and we all have to deal with it.

I will be fine, but I'm concerned for so many others, and for many people around the world.

Trump would be really bad, but Hillary will be plenty bad enough.

I always enjoy people like you who are tuned in and mindful.

Thank you.

[redstateblues]

61. Equivocating Trump and Hillary makes you look foolish

[kayakjohnny]

65. Thanks but I wasn't talking to you.

[senz]

75. All years are tough for idealists, but this one is different.

We have a candidate for president who is himself an idealist and who has lived his ideals fully and courageously for decades. He didn't set out to be a hero; he spent ~ 33 years in public service living out his beliefs within his chosen milieu. But Bernie stuck his neck out a little over a year ago and has stayed true to his principles despite the filth that has been thrown at him from some very filthy people. He has amazed me. Idealists everywhere can be grateful for what Bernie Sanders has done.

I agree with you about what happened to the Democratic Party. We used to be fairly noble and good until Al From and Bill Clinton decided to remake the Party in the early 1990s.

Like you, I will be fine no matter who wins, providing there won't be a catastrophe or societal breakdown, but like any real liberal, I don't want others to suffer from the greed and injustice that would use our once-democratic government for its own private ends. In this country, I worry especially for the young and the elderly. But just about everyone who isn't in the top 20% is feeling the pinch, and none of them deserve this.

I appreciate your kind words.

[libdem4life]

99. Read my mind and expressed it better. Thanks.

[Ned_Devine]

103. I agree

[tritsofme]

27. You are stating the rules incorrectly. Hillary will have the support of 2383 delegates tomorrow.

As I mention in my post below, of course there will be no nominee before the convention, such a thing is impossible.

Tomorrow Hillary becomes the presumptive nominee, whether you like it or not.

[senz]

35. No dear, were not talking "support," we're talking actual votes.

"Presumptive nominee" is, as the name implies, presumptuous.

We can presume anything, can't we? But that doesn't make it fact.

"Whether you like it or not."

[tritsofme]

40. Then I suppose we agree. As I stated, in the entire history of our convention model no person

has ever become nominee prior to the convention. It is impossible.

Hillary is in the same position as Obama, Kerry, Gore, Clinton, Dukakis, Mondale, Carter et al. before they entered their respective conventions, the presumptive nominee.

[ContinentalOp]

64. Presumptive and presumptuous do not mean the same thing.

Put down your Bernie dictionary.

[senz]

71. Same root. Take a closer look ...

Presume

: to think that (something) is true without knowing that it is true

: to accept legally or officially that something is true until it is proved not true

: to do (something) that you do not have the right or permission to do

http://www.merriam-webster.com/dictionary/Presume

You're welcome.

[ContinentalOp]

74. ugh, we're really going to go there?

ok fine.

Definition of presumptive
: giving grounds for reasonable opinion or belief
http://www.merriam-webster.com/dictionary/presumptive

Definition of presumptuous
: too confident especially in a way that is rude : done or made without permission, right, or good reason
: overstepping due bounds (as of propriety or courtesy) : taking liberties
http://www.merriam-webster.com/dictionary/presumptuous

Clinton is the presumptive nominee. There is nothing presumptuous about stating that fact.

[senz]

76. You cherry picked. Not suprising. ;)

You could have given both of the applicable definitions, especially since the first one even uses the phrase "the presumptive nominee" as an example.

presumptive

1 : based on probability or presumption <the presumptive nominee>

2 : giving grounds for reasonable opinion or belief

Now lets go back to definition #1

Simple Definition of presumption

: a belief that something is true even though it has not been proved

law : an act of accepting that something is true until it is proved not true

: willingness to do something without the right or permission to do it

http://www.merriam-webster.com/dictionary/presumption

[ContinentalOp]

91. It's not cherry picking to define words correctly.

presumption
a : an attitude or belief dictated by probability : assumption
b : the ground, reason, or evidence lending probability to a belief

When people talk about the presumptive nominee they mean that all signs and evidence point to this person being the nominee despite the fact that the convention technically hasn't happened yet. They don't mean "too confident especially in a way that is rude : done or made without permission, right, or good reason" "overstepping due bounds (as of propriety or courtesy) : taking liberties" But you know that.

[Number23]

97. If you were patronizing and had a good grasp of the facts, that would be one thing

But all of your "honeys" and "dears" while you spout nonsense is pretty precious.

A delegate majority is 2383, which includes supers and pledged delegates. If you only want to count a pledged delegate majority (without supers) the number is 2,026.

http://www.vox.com/2016/6/7/11867910/california-primary-2016-polls-closing-results-clinton-sanders
http://demrace.com/
http://www.polichart.com/interactives/bern-path
http://www.dailykos.com/story/2016/4/5/1510954/-2026-pledged-delegates-is-the-number-No-open-convention-Bernie

[kayakjohnny]

37. I thought she was presumptive since last year.

Now you're saying it starts tomorrow?

Who does your marketing?

[tritsofme]

42. The Democratic Party and the media will make that declaration.

As she will formally have support from a majority of delegates.

[SFnomad]

28. Honey? When you use #BernieMath, you should probably hold the condesention to a minimum.

In '08, Sanders Endorsed Obama - Before Clinton Formally Exited Race

http://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2016-election/08-sanders-endorsed-obama-clinton-formally-exited-race-n586556

As Bernie Sanders and his supporters argue that Hillary Clinton can't clinch the Democratic nomination on Tuesday - because superdelegates don't count until the convention - it is worth noting that Sanders endorsed Barack Obama two days after Obama crossed the magic number (pledged + superdelegate), saying he had become Democratic nominee.

And Sanders' endorsement of Obama came before Clinton had officially exited the 2008 presidential race.


"I plan to play a very active role," Sanders said of endorsing Obama, according to an interview in the June 5, 2008 Burlington Free Press. "I will do everything I can to see that he is elected president."

But the newspaper added, "Sanders said he held off supporting either of the Democrats [Obama or Clinton] because he has made it a custom not to support any Democrat for the presidential nomination until the party had chosen its nominee."

At that moment in time, Obama was in the EXACT SAME SITUATION that Presumptive Nominee Clinton will be in tomorrow night. The only way you could consider him the "chosen nominee", is if you counted Superdelegates as well as Pledged Delegates.

But we're used to hypocrisy from BS and his cheerleaders

[senz]

38. I'm talking 2016 Democratic primary rules. I don't care who said what to whom.

[SFnomad]

55. Bless your heart ... does it hurt, twisting yourself into a pretzel like that? n/t

[senz]

67. No it's really very simiple. Read the rules. Apply them.

Pretzel is "he said this in 2008 and she did that in 2008" and somebody else said some other thing." That's pretzel. And it bores me.

[SFnomad]

69. No, that's not a pretzel ... that's called precedent. And there are no "rules" about calling

someone the Presumptive Nominee, mostly because it's not any type of official title. ... there weren't rules about it in 2008, there isn't in 2016 either. But facts don't seem to matter to you people.

[senz]

72. The nominee is decided by Democratic primary rules.

Precedent is unofficial. Rules are official.

[SFnomad]

73. Secretary Clinton has already been called the Presumtive Nominee ... it's happened n/t

[senz]

80. Nothing has happened. Neither candidate has reached the 2383 mark

and neither will, until the convention.

It doesn't matter what he corporate media calls her. They can call her "Empress Clinton," but it still won't make her the Democratic nominee.

[SFnomad]

81. You can be in denial all you want ... enjoy your #BernieBubble ... I have some celebrating to do

buh bye

[GulfCoast66]

32. Tell you what...

Send this to our President when he declares her the winner and endorsers her later this week.

Let him know he is mistaken.

[senz]

41. Oh so you think the president can decide who is the nominee?

Hey, I like Obama. I don't think he's stupid or corrupt. He's not going to "declare the winner."

He can endorse anyone he chooses, but I know what he thinks of Hillary.

[GulfCoast66]

45. Well, yeah

I think when a popular 2 term president declares that the primary to choose his successor is over and one of them has won, yeah, that pretty much seals it. The entire party including pretty much all SD, the entire congress, the media and finally, Bernie himself will fall in line.

It is good to be the president. Power comes with the job.

I may be wrong. Hell, I am an agriculture manager! But I am pretty sure Bernie respects the will of the primary voters, a majority of whom will have voted for Hillary after tomorrow.

[TimPlo]

43. Clinton securing the nomination before the convention is up to Sanders.

That is just the way the DNC rules are. She is more than likely to win the nomination at the convention but no matter how much idiots want to argue facts they can't. If Sanders does not drop out of before the convention then she can not be the nominee plain and simple. Why even argue about it when it is way it is and has always been. Not the media calling it for her at any time. SD do not vote till the convention, ask Hillary about it she knows this as she waited 4 days after the voting was done to try and sway SD to her but could not so she finally dropped out on the 7th. Her dropping out was what made Obama the nominee not him getting some prediction on how the Super Delegates are going to vote.

[rjsquirrel]

51. If you keep insisting on that

we will let it be true in your world.

Meanwhile, review the actual rules.

[senz]

60. It's clearly stated in the rules. I'll refresh your memory ...

A candidate must win 2,383 delegates at the national convention, in order to win the 2016 Democratic presidential nomination.

The above quote can be found under Process at the following site:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Democratic_Party_presidential_primaries,_2016

You can find Hill's current delegate count here: http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/election-2016/delegate-targets/

You're welcome.

[eastwestdem]

3. Send more money to Bernie to try and make this happen! nt

[tritsofme]

34. Jeff Weaver needs a new ocean-front condo, gosh darnit!

[alcibiades_mystery]

5. The Berniecrats have completely given up on actually winning the most pledged delegates

Their only hope is now some version of winning with fewer pledged delegates.

They know the "winning the election" ship has sailed, which is why they have cathected on "rigged election" and "email indictment." The slightky less comical version of this has even a 1 vote California win "informing the superdelegates" that Hillary is a "weak candidate." Combined, these are the Berniecrat buzzwords of the last two weeks - the clearest sign and symptom that they know they've lost the actual election.

[Blanks]

6. I was part of a revolution once...

So I can relate to the Sanders supporters.

We were being all revolutiony, then we ran out of beer so I went home.

[SoCalMusicLover]

7. Hillary Clinton Is A Weak Candidate

The mere fact that Bernie Sanders, a guy who was a relatively unknown Senator from the tiny state of Vermont, has taken Former First Lady, Former Senator & Former SOS Hillary Clinton, to the final day of the primaries, should be sending her a LOUD MESSAGE.

Will she get it? I doubt it. Just like all her supporters here don't get it either.

Bernie is getting a great deal of support from voters who just don't like Hillary. While many of his supporters agree with him, and believe he is the candidate this country needs as President, a lot will vote for Hillary when she becomes the nominee.

But underlying that, there are many who voted for Bernie that will refuse to vote for Hillary in November. Some may just not vote at all, although there are probably others, perhaps Independent voters, who will go with Trump, since they will view him as an outsider, while Hillary is part of the Washington political machine.

I expect an extremely tight race over the next few months. I also imagine that if Hillary does snatch defeat from the jaws of victory, she will place plenty of blame on Bernie, rather than looking in the mirror. After all, it has been her birthright to become President, and if she didn't get there, after standing by Bill primarily for political reasons, it would be a travesty.

[baldguy]

11. And if Sanders couldn't beat her, what does that make him?

[TimPlo]

46. Someone that faced a uphill battle from the Start.

He started this primary race at a -40% vs Clinton and has been doing way better than any other underdog in most of our life times. Clinton should of beat him back in Feb/March like Gore did to his opponents back in 2000. Because when you are talking about a presidential race it is all about name. If Biden had run against Clinton he would of probably beat her soundly because he is not so disliked as she is and he is not such a corrupt war monger. Because he is know as well as she is. If you do not know how name recognition works on a majority of voters then you have never paid attention to any national election. Why do you think Trump even had a chance, if some no name started spouting the same shit Trump did he would never even got 1% of the votes.

[redstateblues]

63. It makes Bernie look like what he is. An also ran.

He made a good run but the people have spoken.

[ContinentalOp]

66. "Took her to the final day of the primaries" just because he's too stubborn to face the facts.

It's meaningless. It's not like they were neck in neck and he never took the lead. She has been beating him the entire race, and he hasn't had any mathematical chance at winning the majority of pledged delegates for a very long time now.

[RealAmericanDem]

8. You all are ignoring Bernie math at your peril

[tritsofme]

20. Oh my goodness...That was incredible! I'm sure the guys did all their research right here at GDP!

[MFM008]

9. it could indeed happen.

an earthquake could cause the west coast to fall into the sea
Donald Trump could be Pope
Aliens will land on the white house lawn.
Fish will speak

your right lol.

[rock]

10. LOL!

Just LOL!

[senz]

12. Hillary needs 571 more pledged delegates. Nearly impossible in the remaining primaries.

Sorry.

[RealAmericanDem]

13. Exactly what was pointed out above in post # 8

[senz]

16. No, this comes from fivethirtyeight.com

Check it out for yourself: http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/election-2016/delegate-targets/

[MoonRiver]

14. How sad.

I hope you are ok after 7pm tomorrow.

[senz]

17. LOL, there will not be a Democratic nominee tomorrow.

The empty people can crow all they want, but the numbers will not disappear.

Party rules, my dear.

[RealAmericanDem]

22. So Obama will be making a mistake when he endorses Hillary day after tomorrow.

[senz]

23. I know that's the latest Hill Fan lollipop, but it's irrelevant to this discussion.

[tritsofme]

26. You are very right, no candidate has ever ever been nominated before the convention.

No candidate has ever become the nominee until he accepted the nomination at the convention.

There was talk that John Kerry might accept the nomination prior to the convention in 2004, so he could get earlier access to his general election funds, but it never came to pass.

But yes, this year will be no different, Hillary will not be the nominee until she is nominated, very astute observation.

After tomorrow when she has announced the support from a majority of all delegates, she becomes presumptive nominee, sorry.

[SFnomad]

31. Secretary Clinton WILL BE the Democratic Presumptive Nominee tomorrow night, no matter how deep your

cranial rectal inversion is.

[senz]

57. Your insults are very Hill fan. Not surprising.

However, "presumptive nominee" is a meaningless phrase because we will not know who the nominee is before the convention.

[SFnomad]

58. It will be clear to anyone that doesn't use #BernieMath n/t

[ContinentalOp]

68. If only there was some way to find out who the superdelegates were going to vote for.

But I guess we'll never know until they surprise us in July!

[libdem4life]

100. Ohhhhhh...resorting to potty mouth. Stay classy.

[SFnomad]

102. I've learned how to stay classy from the BS cheerleaders around here

And you don't seem to understand was a "potty mouth" is ... as what I posted was the cleaned up version of the saying.

[libdem4life]

104. Oh my, as a life long teacher and mother of a son, I know what

Potty Mouth is and it lacks class. When the neighborhood kids/friends came over, they knew the rules. No one minded. Funny about that.

My dad used to say it was a lack of vocabulary. And blaming someone else...my mom used to say to my "but they all do it"...if you friend cuts off her nose, are you going to do it to?

They were wise people.

[SFnomad]

105. FFS, BS cheerleaders will argue ANYTHING ... #shm .... buh bye ... n/t

[AzDar]

25. ...

[KingFlorez]

33. You can repeat until you lose all breathe, but it doesn't change the the convention is a formality

It only confirms the will of the voters and certifies it. Greedy Grabber Sanders can't steal it, because the superdelegates won't side with him.

[annavictorious]

39. They settled on a story line

and they're sticking to it.

Among everyone except Sanders and Tea Party 2.0, incredulity has taken hold, and ridicule will rapidly ensue.

Well, of course the protocols, conventions, and standard usage are different this time. The winner is a girl, and the rules have been bernified.

[senz]

48. No, the rules were set by the DNC long before Bernie announced.

You know: the DWS' DNC, the one that so favored Hillary, even though "she's a girl" (as you say in your comment).

[onenote]

82. There's a rule that the media can't report the number of super delegate commitments

for a candidate? Why hasn't Bernie objected when they reported announcements of super delegates committing to him?

[senz]

84. Superdelegates don't vote until the convention.

They are not locked in to any particular candidate. They are free agents.

What matters during the primaries is pledged delegate counts. If a candidate doesn't reach 2383 pledged delegates before the convention, then the superdelegate vote will decide it.

It looks next to impossible for either candidate to reach 2383 from the remaining primaries.

[onenote]

86. So I ask again. Why did Bernie issue press releases announcing his super delegate commitments

If those commitments were meaningless?
https://berniesanders.com/press-release/sanders-pledged-delegate-total-now-1088/

[senz]

44. Gee, anyone named "King" should be well-educated. Let me help you.

The convention is not a formality when the primaries have not produced a nominee.

When the requisite number of pledged delegates has not been reached by one of the candidates prior to the convention, the superdelegates vote at the convention and the candidate who reaches the requisite number from that vote wins the nomination.

In 2016, the winning delegate count is 2383. It looks like neither candidate will be able get that many delegates from the remaining primaries.

It is astonishing that a Hillary supporter could call Bernie Sanders "greedy."

[TimPlo]

49. Could the SD change their mind before the convnetion?

If they can't then DWS and Howard dean are liars. Because they said months ago that SD do not vote till the convention and they can vote anyway they want and do not have to follow the will of the voters. What has changed since the start of the primary till now?

[senz]

62. What's in their minds before the convention is irrelevant.

It's how they vote at the convention that counts.

[onenote]

83. Then why has Bernie not objected to announcements of his supers?

After all they could change their minds too.

[senz]

85. Yes of course they could change their minds.

I don't see what there is for him to object to at this point. Everyone knows how it works.

[onenote]

87. He's been announcing them and totaling up how many he has all along

But now when the media reports the total number that Clinton has and, when added to the pledged delegates, it puts her over 2383 they're not supposed to report it? And how exactly would the DNC enforce this supposed "rule" against counting super delegates before they vote?

[senz]

88. Bernie knows that SDs don't vote until the convention.

He also knows that neither he nor Hill will have 2383 pledged delegates after the primaries are over and that therefore there will be no nominee until the SDs vote.

I'm not aware of the controversy to which you're referring. It would be dishonest for either candidate to claim that they've reached the required delegate count at this point.

Why can't people just relax and wait for the convention? Hill and Bernie can do whatever they want until then. Maybe the rest of us could enjoy a bit of summer.

[onenote]

89. Then why was he reporting them?

I mean, if they shouldn't be counted until they vote because they can change their minds, what is the justification for totaling them up and reporting them in a press release in April?

[senz]

90. Onenote, I'm not a mind reader.

If I were trying to hazard a guess I might say that it's possible he simply wanted people to know there are SDs who support him. As you know, he was ignored for a long time and treated as if he didn't matter and perhaps he wanted to establish that he has Democratic establishment support --something like that. But this is merely me hazarding a guess. He may have had an entirely different reason. Perhaps someone asked him about it? Or perhaps some jerk said he didn't have any SDs and so he wanted to set record straight? Could be anything.

I wish to compliment you on your civility.

[annavictorious]

36. The window of opportunity to salvage what's left of his reputation

is rapidly closing for Sanders.

[senz]

47. This, from a supporter of the candidate who polls as most untrustworthy?

[annavictorious]

52. AP is reporting that Hillary has enough delegates

and that she is the presumptive nominee.

[senz]

78. Even without tomorrow's primaries? LOL, shame on AP.

Even with tomorrow's primaries, Hill won't have enough pledged delegates to be the nominee.

You can say "presumptive" all you want, and you will say it because to your ears it sounds good, it sounds triumphant, and that's what you so badly want -- but it will not make her the nominee.

Sorry, but you'll just have to wait for the convention.

[Beacool]

56. Yeah, and I could grow wings and become Tinker Bell.

[NurseJackie]

59. Ha!

[dark forest]

70. It'd be nice,

but it's not happening in this universe.

Sorry

[TeacherB87]

79. Or unicorns could

come from the sky and kidnap the superdelegates for Bernie. #feelthebern #uni-corn...sound similar? Coincidence? I think not.

[Scurrilous]

92. Doable Boink!

[Norman Conch Quest]

93. No Doubt!

Hillary might as well drop out now!

[RealAmericanDem]

95. It could happen. But wait, Hillary creamed Obama in '08 in Ca.

Obama stole it from her.

[Number23]

96. As of this post, with 13% in, she's up 59 to 40 in NJ. So, your theory, which was pretty shoddy to

begin with, is not even going to come close to happening.

[NNadir]

101. Well, he's going to get 233%. If he doesn't, it's a fraud!!! n/t

[George II]

106. .

[workinclasszero]

107. ....