2016 Postmortem
Related: About this forumWhat if so many HRC voters stay home today that Bernie overtakes in pledged delegates?
Okay, there is almost no chance this will happen. But it is an interesting hypothetical. If enough HRC supporters don't bother to vote today (thinking it's a done deal) that Bernie ends with the lead in pledged delegates, then the argument that SDs always have (and should) cast their vote for the candidate with the most pledged delegates means that they would actually need to switch. What a crazy outcome, if the AP's early announcement of Hilary's victory cost her that victory. The internet would explode.
tonyt53
(5,737 posts)CrowCityDem
(2,348 posts)thesquanderer
(11,970 posts)Bernie would not have to win 100% of the vote today to overtake her in pledged delegates. About 71% in each state would do it (or some combination, i.e. more in California would allow for less in others).
But no, I don't think it's going to happen!
Gomez163
(2,039 posts)mac56
(17,564 posts)Codeine
(25,586 posts)beachbum bob
(10,437 posts)thesquanderer
(11,970 posts)And even then, some of the other reasons are not compelling. Few people bother showing up to vote on minor races/issues.
Dr Hobbitstein
(6,568 posts)thesquanderer
(11,970 posts)randome
(34,845 posts)They'll just stay home and sob, "Go ahead and let it drop into the sea. I don't care anymore!"
[hr][font color="blue"][center]Stop looking for heroes. BE one.[/center][/font][hr]
thesquanderer
(11,970 posts)ISUGRADIA
(2,571 posts)Is on today
zappaman
(20,606 posts)Wake up
thesquanderer
(11,970 posts)zappaman
(20,606 posts)thesquanderer
(11,970 posts)It didn't seem like anything that would motivate tons of people to go out and vote. I didn't know whether there was anything else on the ballot, so I asked.
Though with the yawn reference, now I get the "wake up" part.
PeaceNikki
(27,985 posts)CHOCOLATE???
boston bean
(36,217 posts)jehop61
(1,735 posts)There are many down ticket candidates in the primaries. They will bring out voters as well as the presidential race.
thesquanderer
(11,970 posts)That is, turnout is usually abysmally low when there is not a major candidate to vote for.
Also, I wonder how many of today's states have anything else on the ballot? When I voted in New York, there was nothing else on the ballot, just Hillary or Bernie, that was the entirety of the ballot.
Ace Rothstein
(3,140 posts)These votes would have put her over the top in pledged delegates.
okieinpain
(9,397 posts)Could beat golden state
NorthCarolina
(11,197 posts)MineralMan
(146,248 posts)Hillary will be well over the majority of pledged delegates this time tomorrow, no matter what California does.
bettyellen
(47,209 posts)Lord Magus
(1,999 posts)The Democratic Party is capable of responding to unlikely scenarios like that.
thesquanderer
(11,970 posts)Still, the difference would be that the newspaper headline didn't affect the outcome, whereas in theory the AP article would have!
I wouldn't bet on it, though.
MyNameGoesHere
(7,638 posts)Why birds wouldn't fuck with them of course. Now on the the next won't ever happen scenario.
Agnosticsherbet
(11,619 posts)If the AP's early announcement determined the election, then that would be another aspect of the primary that needs to be changed going forth.
thesquanderer
(11,970 posts)don't always consider the ramifications of their actions.
arely staircase
(12,482 posts)stone space
(6,498 posts)The supers would follow (as a group, not individually) the pledged delegates.
That's a pretty big "if", though, at this point.
Hillary only needs a tiny handful of the remaining delegates to clinch it.
Demsrule86
(68,455 posts)There are important down ballot races...Hillary voters and Bernie voters will show up.
geek tragedy
(68,868 posts)anyways, not gonna happen
anigbrowl
(13,889 posts)But that's the sort of thing that happens in countries having their first or very infrequent elections, whereas the US system (not least thanks to the country's unique geography) has been ticking along for over 2 centuries even through a period of civil war. That creates a strong cultural memory and framework; many Clinton voters are habitual voters who always show up for the midterms and so on and would be showing up anyway to vote in state and county elections, for Congressional primaries and so on.