What if so many HRC voters stay home today that Bernie overtakes in pledged delegates?

[thesquanderer]

Okay, there is almost no chance this will happen. But it is an interesting hypothetical. If enough HRC supporters don't bother to vote today (thinking it's a done deal) that Bernie ends with the lead in pledged delegates, then the argument that SDs always have (and should) cast their vote for the candidate with the most pledged delegates means that they would actually need to switch. What a crazy outcome, if the AP's early announcement of Hilary's victory cost her that victory. The internet would explode.

[tonyt53]

1. Dream on.

[CrowCityDem]

2. That would require ALL of them to stay home. Not gonna happen.

[thesquanderer]

6. No, it would not require them all to stay home.

Bernie would not have to win 100% of the vote today to overtake her in pledged delegates. About 71% in each state would do it (or some combination, i.e. more in California would allow for less in others).

But no, I don't think it's going to happen!

[Gomez163]

3. What if unicorns magically appear and bite me in the ass???

[mac56]

13. Oh, you'd like that, wouldn't you?

[Codeine]

19. Sexy, sexy unicorns. nt

[beachbum bob]

4. Other reasons to vote. So not possible...

[thesquanderer]

20. Not all states have other reasons to vote.

And even then, some of the other reasons are not compelling. Few people bother showing up to vote on minor races/issues.

[Dr Hobbitstein]

5. I don't believe there's enough pledged delegates left. nt

[thesquanderer]

11. Yes there are... 694 delegates available today, he trails by far less than that. (n/t)

[randome]

7. So Californians will be so depressed, they won't vote on state issues.

They'll just stay home and sob, "Go ahead and let it drop into the sea. I don't care anymore!"
[hr][font color="blue"][center]Stop looking for heroes. BE one.[/center][/font][hr]

[thesquanderer]

18. Is there anything else on the CA ballot besides Prop 50 (yawn)? (n/t)

[ISUGRADIA]

23. US Senate Primary

Is on today

[zappaman]

27. yes

Wake up

[thesquanderer]

30. Wake up? I don't live in CA, that's why I asked. (nt)

[zappaman]

32. you said "yawn"

[thesquanderer]

35. Yes, coincidentally, I happened to come across something about Prop 50.

It didn't seem like anything that would motivate tons of people to go out and vote. I didn't know whether there was anything else on the ballot, so I asked.

Though with the yawn reference, now I get the "wake up" part.

[PeaceNikki]

8. What if unicorns were real and they could whisk us all away to magical lands where trees are made of

CHOCOLATE???

[boston bean]

12. and clouds of cotton candy..

[jehop61]

9. You seem to forget

There are many down ticket candidates in the primaries. They will bring out voters as well as the presidential race.

[thesquanderer]

14. Turnout for downticket races alone is notoriously small.

That is, turnout is usually abysmally low when there is not a major candidate to vote for.

Also, I wonder how many of today's states have anything else on the ballot? When I voted in New York, there was nothing else on the ballot, just Hillary or Bernie, that was the entirety of the ballot.

[Ace Rothstein]

10. There were likely enough votes cast for Clinton for today's primaries before the AP announcement.

These votes would have put her over the top in pledged delegates.

[okieinpain]

15. Yeah it could happen and cleveland

Could beat golden state

[NorthCarolina]

16. No worries, they've been feverishly printing mail-in ballots by the millions. -nt-

[MineralMan]

17. Simply won't happen.

Hillary will be well over the majority of pledged delegates this time tomorrow, no matter what California does.

[bettyellen]

21. Stop feeding people's delusions.

[Lord Magus]

22. Then superdelegates would switch to Bernie. What of it?

The Democratic Party is capable of responding to unlikely scenarios like that.

[thesquanderer]

25. Then I guess the AP would have a "Dewey beats Truman" on their hands.

Still, the difference would be that the newspaper headline didn't affect the outcome, whereas in theory the AP article would have!

I wouldn't bet on it, though.

[MyNameGoesHere]

24. What if grasshoppers had machine guns?

Why birds wouldn't fuck with them of course. Now on the the next won't ever happen scenario.

[Agnosticsherbet]

26. If Sanders comes out with a majority of pledged delegates, the supers will switch.

If the AP's early announcement determined the election, then that would be another aspect of the primary that needs to be changed going forth.

[thesquanderer]

28. I would love for it to get close, just to put a scare into the AP and other media who

don't always consider the ramifications of their actions.

[arely staircase]

29. What if a tiger walked in here right now. nt

[stone space]

31. If Bernie were to actually win the majority of pledged delegates, then he'd win the nomination.

The supers would follow (as a group, not individually) the pledged delegates.

That's a pretty big "if", though, at this point.

Hillary only needs a tiny handful of the remaining delegates to clinch it.

[Demsrule86]

33. No chance

There are important down ballot races...Hillary voters and Bernie voters will show up.

[geek tragedy]

34. given that the California votes by mail and there are other primary races

anyways, not gonna happen

[anigbrowl]

36. That would be entertaining for sure

But that's the sort of thing that happens in countries having their first or very infrequent elections, whereas the US system (not least thanks to the country's unique geography) has been ticking along for over 2 centuries even through a period of civil war. That creates a strong cultural memory and framework; many Clinton voters are habitual voters who always show up for the midterms and so on and would be showing up anyway to vote in state and county elections, for Congressional primaries and so on.

[pdsimdars]

37. Shhhhh!