2016 Postmortem
Related: About this forumMaddow: There were no exit polls in New Jersey, so there won't be any projections
till enough votes are counted -- they won't be able to combine results of exit polls with today's results.
valerief
(53,235 posts)with exit polls after 2004, even though exit polls had been accurate for decades. Gee, what changed?
pnwmom
(108,976 posts)One, they rely on choosing select precincts to be representative of other precincts -- and sometimes they're not.
Two, they need voters to cooperate and many of them will walk right by.
Three, they don't include absentee voters. And in this election, where Hillary dominates among older voters and those most likely to vote absentee, that makes a real difference.
valerief
(53,235 posts)pnwmom
(108,976 posts)And such a high percentage of some form of vote-by-mail?
When you leave out a large percentage of older voters, and older voters heavily prefer one of the candidates, the exit polls aren't going to match the results
valerief
(53,235 posts)GreatGazoo
(3,937 posts)but Hillary beat some exit polls by 10% or more
pokerfan
(27,677 posts)Read more: http://electiondefensealliance.org/frequently_asked_questions_about_exit_polls#ixzz4Ax2EKTa2
pnwmom
(108,976 posts)to the degree we do? Exit polls don't count these voters, so that can affect their accuracy in the US and any other place that has high numbers of early and absentee voters.
Grassy Knoll
(10,118 posts)pnwmom
(108,976 posts)I suspect they're spending their money in California.