Trump is never going to make it to November.

[tecelote]

He'll be disqualified and someone else will come in at the last minute to save the Republican party.

What do you think the odds of Trump surviving till November are?

[Ferd Berfel]

1. Agree - Can't you smell the Bait-n-Switch in the air?

Clinton isn't going to have it as easy as Drumpf

[Cali_Democrat]

25. Wait a minute...for months you folks have been saying Trump is super tough

and will blow Hillary away.

Make up your minds...

[Miles Archer]

37. Nope.

He's not super tough, he's a bully. I assume you have seen Christmas Story:

The secret to every bully is that they will remain a bully until someone knocks them on their ass.

Or in Trump's case, until he significantly offends the public at large and the RNC no longer believes that he's made of teflon.

He pretty much killed the Republican brand during the primaries, and still, two-faced weasels like Paul Ryan "endorsed" him, only to back-pedal and call him a racist. There are so many Republicans back-pedaling right now that it's like the Tour de effin' FRANCE out there.

What I felt, up until maybe a month or so, was that Sheldon Adelson would start writing checks (he did), and that maybe even the Koch boys would throw in the towel (they didn't, but the Donald is in the middle of scheduling a "meeting" with them). I also knew that Trump didn't have an "off" switch, because every time he went too far (think: Megyn Kelly's menstrual cycle), he was not only instantly forgiven, he got a round of high-fives from his followers. I also felt that he would dish up every single speck of dirt in Bill and Hillary's personal and professional life.

But it's not a month or so ago, it's June 9th, and the damning evidence against "Trump University" and his racist remarks against an Indiana-born "Mexican" judge are sending shock waves, and aftershocks.

So what I felt then was that Clinton would have one hell of a fight on her hands, just because this guy's corruption ran so deep and he seemed to have his conscience surgically removed.

Now, it's not going to be that difficult for her to put him away.

As I have said elsewhere on DU, I don't think he's learned anything from this. I posted a thread a day or two ago (I believe I put it in Videos & Multimedia) where he is at his press conference, reading the teleprompter, and all is sweetness and light and "making America great again," and without skipping a beat he goes on to an interview in which he says that people need to "get over it already" (the "Mexican Judge" outrage).

He's a bully. No one has knocked him on his ass yet. If the Republicans actually let him run, Clinton will wipe up the floor with him. My prediction is the ugliest, most brutal Republican "contested convention" of our generation. I do not see him making it to November 5th.

[Skwmom]

47. No. It has been Camp Hillary that have touted an easy win. Now they and their corporate buddies are

doing backflips to get him out of the race. Hmm... it seems like they figured out it's not such a good idea to run the ULTIMATE establishment candidate against and outsider.

[jzodda]

41. I hope they keep him

but we win either way. If they dump him after he won it it represents the end of the Republican party which maybe already in its twilight.

[Recursion]

45. I could totally see the GOP waving around the crazy man for 6 months

And then pulling a switcheroo and saying "see, we have an actual sane person now!"

[drray23]

2. short of being convicted of a felony

how do you get disqualified ? The only way he can be gotten rid of is for the gop to vote him out at their convention which they might do.

[Happyhippychick]

3. I agree. I believe he will quit after a Trumpertantrum

[farleftlib]

6. LOL. Priceless.

"I believe he will quit after a Trumpertantrum."

[Happyhippychick]

7. :)

[3catwoman3]

30. Trumpertantrum - a most...

...excellent neologism!

[uponit7771]

17. lol

[Ilsa]

4. Maybe he'll do a Ross Perot and quit, then

Jump back in, then quit. Keep every RWer's head spinning.

[TheCowsCameHome]

5. 0 to none.

This is bait and switch to the nth degree.

Be aware, Hillary.

[larkrake]

8. i agree

[Hoyt]

9. I thinks odds are high he's out at convention or before. We'll have spent a lot

of effort defeating Trump, then a Romney or someone similar will get drafted.

[tecelote]

10. Yup. After the ammo is spent, a new face will appear with, seemingly, no baggage. The sane choice.

[onenote]

11. 99 percent that he remains the candidate.

[tecelote]

14. You're the only dissenting voice so far. Bravo!

[onenote]

21. My rationale:

Yes, a lot of repub leaders are coming to grips with what a disaster Trump is. But they face two bad choices.

One is that they attempt a coup to force him out. The party will explode. No matter how it is papered over -- whether it is made to look like he stepped down voluntarily or is clearly forced out against his will -- his backers will loudly and wildly go nuts. And the repubs will appear in such disarray that it will be hard to put humpty dumpty back together for years and years.

The other option is that they stay the course with Trump, with more and more repub leaders stepping away from him but nonetheless not trying to overturn the will of the repub electorate that nominated him. He will go down to defeat and may even take the Senate and/or the House with him. But once that happens, Trump will be discredited as a viable political force and the non-Trumpians will be in a position to reassert control over the repub party, with the idea of going hard against the Democrats in 2018 and defeating a Clinton re-election bid in 2020. In other words, they'll trade a couple of years on the outs in order to reclaim control.

[Lucinda]

39. Yep. n/t

[FSogol]

42. I agree. Any attempt to change the RNC rules will bring on a Trumpy lawsuit

with emergency stop everything powers from the court. They'll be shown to be the most dysfunctional party by far and the court may side with Trump. No matter the result, most of the Freepers will be dissatisfied.

[Lance Bass esquire]

12. A lot of skeletons in his closet.

The gloves come off now. He is not used to being in the cross hairs of real fact checking and vetting. It's beneath him ...he's King Trump. Just wait till the temper tantrums and all night tweetfests start up again. The Republicans will either dump him or he will quit saying the country does not deserve his greatness. Silly little people..

[9999dmg]

13. Extremely likely.

Everyone has just moved their 'Trump won't be the nominee,' statements to 'Trump won't make it to November.'

[braddy]

15. The odds are against him.

[Octafish]

16. He thinks he's Teflon Don.

He said he could "stand in the middle of Fifth Avenue and shoot somebody and I wouldn't lose any voters. OK? It's like incredible."

[apnu]

18. The GOP's goose is already cooked.

If they keep Trump, they're dead. He's the first president with negative coat-tails.

If they DQ Trump and insert someone else, mid election, that candidate won't have time to get up to speed, build a campaign staff, fund raise and get name and platform out there in time. Plus Trump as a very rabid fan base in the GOP, easily 25% of the Republicans who support Trump will stay home on November 8th. With the mortal damage the party has already taken with POCs and women, losing that vote kills them.

It kills them now with Trump, but its actually worse if they dump Trump at this point.

[FSogol]

43. +1, well said. n/t

[hamsterjill]

19. While I will not rule out the GOP leaders trying to pull something "unconventional"...

Trump isn't going to go. His ego is too big and he's in to this too deep.

In his mind, it's all fun and games. When and if he were to ever become President, he would delegate any responsibility much as he did in his business dealings.

[KingFlorez]

20. His supporters would throw a fit

He's too arrogant to even drop out, which means the only way for him not to be on the ballot on November is if the RNC votes someone else in at the convention. If they did that, his supporters would revolt and Trump would be right there to encourage them. A huge chaotic scene on the floor of the convention would be a major disaster for the Republican Party.

[GulfCoast66]

22. But, but,

If they dump Trump then the Democrats will be forced to drop Clinton and we get...Bernie!!!

It's so logical😭

[Ferd Berfel]

46. All depends on how they get rid of him

"health" reasons ?
plane crash ?

"insane" republican supporter?
ISIS?

'mystery' loan gunnman from a grassy knoll................
bad hair day and he pouts off and goes home...............

[shanti]

23. i've always felt this way about trump

they'll never let that loose cannon in....unless they can pick someone just like cheney, or worse, for his vp.

[beachbum bob]

24. trumps ego is too big...

and if something happens 40% of conservatives stay home and give democratic MASSIVE landslide

[NCTraveler]

26. Pretty low.

Then again, I didn't think people were stupid enough to vote for him.

[Quixote1818]

27. I have been thinking that the past few days.

He is a walking disaster and the GOP establishment along with Democrats will be looking for ways to take him out. It's starting to be clear that he is not that good at business and very crooked. Who knows what else will come out.

[alcibiades_mystery]

28. The problem (for them) is that so many GOPers and indy-rights are now Trumpites that any

hint of pulling him will cause a complete meltdown down-ticket.

They are truly in a fucking pickle.

[madamesilverspurs]

29. The scariest part of that scenario

is the nearly empty pool of possible replacements. Anyone they'd put forward would likely be much worse, horrible as that is to contemplate.

[Manifestor_of_Light]

31. Reporting from the Republican National Convention:

Angry villagers with pitchforks and torches have set the windmill on fire with Frankenstein's monster in it!!



[link:|

[DesertRat]

32. Haha!

[okasha]

33. They're in a lose-lose situation.

The sane Republicans are running away from him at Warp speed for their own survival. Hillary will le pick up quite a lot of votes from the refugees, and the Republican Party may not recover for at least a couple election cycles.

[TeamPooka]

34. In 1984 Reagan's campaign slogan was "Stay The Course." Seriously. That was it

The ship might be sinking but they keep going forward (really backwards) regardless.
Look at the Bush 8 year nightmare.
9/11, Iraq, Katrina
Stay the course.

They will stay the course with Trump to the end, win or lose.
Because they're Republicans.

[cliffordu]

35. I called it months ago.

By the time he gets done hatin' on everyone, even Jeb is going to look good to the fucking idiots in that party.

And, to make it up to all the Latinos, he's got a Latino wife.....

And that will sell.

[David__77]

36. No way he's in to stay.

He will be the republican nominee. I find it so, so interesting!

[HubertHeaver]

38. His chances of politically surviving until November?

I would set that chance to zero. (In my imagination I see an Aggie standing just offstage, out of the camera angle, holding a net and a trident. When Trump finally goes too ballistic he will jump out and throw the net over the Donald and, in true Aggie fashion, gig'em.)

The republicans have their dream opponent in Hillary. They are working on replacing the Donald as we speak (or type, as the case may be).

[Lucinda]

40. The only way he wont be there is if he decides to quit on his own...they wont dump him. n/t

[anigbrowl]

44. I think he will

The GOP is on the verge of splitting apart, the question is whether this happens now or after the election. If Trump is the nominee and then goes down in flames in the GE, the GOP will carryout a huge purge, kick out its hardcore conservative wing, and spend th next 5-10 rebuilding itself as a center-right party. If they were to try to get rid of him during the convention, it's more likely to be the party establishment that gets purged. So my guess is he'll stay in place but will lose all the moderate leaners.

[Jim Lane]

48. He's overwhelmingly likely to make it to November. Possible bait-and-switch AFTER that.

Trump will turn 70 next week (June 14, still time to send him a card) and is overweight. He could have a heart attack or something of the sort. Failing a serious health problem, though, he will be the nominee and will remain such through the general election.

He probably loses in November and that's that. Suppose, however, he holds the Romney states and, with a pitch to the Rust Belt working class that emphasizes his fervent opposition to trade deals, flips Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin, along with Colorado, Iowa, and New Hampshire. (All these states were single-digit Obama wins in 2012.) That gives him 273 electoral votes. Then at least four of those electors go the "faithless" route and vote for the hypothetical sane Republican alternative, Ryan being an obvious choice. With no one having 270, the election goes to the House of Representatives, which must choose among the top three. Hello, President Ryan.

In craps, the "Field" bet wins if the next roll comes up as any of several different totals. (Hence, our idiom "playing the field" means that you have several options.) If I could place a political field bet on "any sane Republican option" (because it wouldn't certainly be Ryan, they might go with Romney or some Ohioans might go with Kasich), I would bet that the non-Trump Republican field has, collectively, a better chance at the Presidency than Trump does.