Why Bernie Sanders Didn’t Fold: A Poker Player’s Perspective

[babylonsister]

http://observer.com/2016/06/why-bernie-sanders-didnt-fold-a-poker-players-perspective/

Why Bernie Sanders Didn’t Fold: A Poker Player’s Perspective
If primaries are like poker, can Bernie Sanders win the game?
By Peter Alson • 06/06/16 12:30pm

snip//

Conventional wisdom would have dictated him suspending his campaign weeks, if not months, ago. If he did so, he would have been commended by Democratic elites for showing his loyalty and demonstrating an understanding that unifying against the GOP opposition was more important than furthering his personal ambitions. But Bernie is an unusual candidate. His personal ambitions seem secondary to his sense of mission. If we don’t conflate the two, then we might conclude that the best way for him to further his mission is by keeping his candidacy alive, which enables him to continue galvanizing support for his views.

Has this strategy succeeded? By ignoring calls to drop out, he’s increased his leverage in shaping the eventual Democratic platform and having a say in policy. Additionally, he’s kept alive his slim hopes for a miraculous come-from-behind victory. Not only that but he’s well positioned to step in and save the day if, between now and the end of July, some new Hillary bombshell drops or an old scandal blows up. That’s no small thing, because if that were to actually happen and Bernie had already dropped out, who knows what kind of mess would develop come convention time? If Bernie’s still in, on the other hand, the nomination would likely be handed to him, and rightly so.

What are the downsides? For one thing, continued contentiousness between he and Hillary could so enflame his supporters that come Election Day the Berners either stay home or vote against her in protest—and as a result elect Donald Trump as our next president. At least that’s what Bernie’s critics warn.

The truth is, most of Bernie’s supporters were already hostile to the establishment, which Clinton represents. Is he now further alienating them from her? Possibly. On the other hand, by refusing to clear the field for her, Bernie may actually be doing her a favor. An earlier withdrawal might have mistakenly empowered her to think that she could pivot to the center with little regard for the interests of his followers. By staying in the race, he is forcing her to be more accommodating to them and to him. Ironically, her best chance of winning in November probably hinges on her willingness to embrace him more fully.

While many progressives may not approve of Bernie’s tactics, from a poker perspective he has played a tricky hand well. By refusing to acquiesce, he has adopted a strategy that should ultimately help him derive maximum value from what is a second-best hand. And that’s a good thing not just for him and his flock, but for all Democrats.

[geek tragedy]

1. he was winning states and had enough money.

so there wasn't much of a compelling reason for him to withdraw until the voting was over.

after the voting is over, however, it's a completely different question. if you've lost the voting, there's really no moral claim to the nomination.

he understands that, as we saw this week

[brooklynite]

7. He was winning States, but never had a convincing path to the nomination after Super Tuesday.

[geek tragedy]

8. he never had one

but a message/protest candidacy doesn't need a concrete plan of victory to justify continuing in the race while there are voters to reach.

once they've had a chance to make their case to all the voters, then of course different set of guiding principles

[Blue Meany]

2. It also strengthens his hand in a negotiations, because with each passing day

the party elders and the Clinton campaign are revealing a little bit more about what they want from him and also more about what they would be willing to offer. In negotiations, the more you know about your counterpart the better; if you know what the he or she is willing to offer, you aren't going to take any less and you will ask for more. If you don't know much, you risk asking for to little and getting it.

[Triana]

11. I agree with this. The longer he can remain a factor that must be considered

the better for all of us and the Democrats in November, IMO.

[libodem]

3. Can not wait

For the super delegates to all roll over for him when the REAL count takes place at the convention.

[geek tragedy]

9. is this snark? nt

[Skink]

4. She is moving right.

Lots of Christie voters
and Bush voters and Kasich voters out there.

[brooklynite]

5. Depends on what his mission was...

If his mission was to talk about his issues, then he did a fine job. If his mission was to actually accomplish some of this issues, doing so as a supportive member of the Democratic Leadership and working cooperatively with Hillary Clinton might have been the better play.

[djean111]

6. Great article. Spot on.

But Bernie is an unusual candidate. His personal ambitions seem secondary to his sense of mission.

Evidently, this is REALLY REALLY HARD for some people to grasp.

The truth is, most of Bernie’s supporters were already hostile to the establishment, which Clinton represents.

I was not going to support Hillary, long before Bernie declared his candidacy. Bernie did not peel me away from Hillary. And my 21 YO grandson? Only got interested in the primaries because of Bernie, and he and his friends are no more likely to vote for Hillary than if Bernie had not run. That is not Bernie's fault - he really cannot sell war and the TPP and fracking (just a few examples) to them. They are not buying that bullshit from anyone.

[libodem]

10. .