The very early scorecard looks awfully good for Team Blue—Clinton 358, Trump 180

[Fla Dem]

Hillary Clinton Is About To Clean Donald Trump’s Clock

Michael Tomasky
FORECAST 06.14.16 8:30 PM ET
The Daily Beast

>>>snip<<<

This observation is occasioned by the appearance this week of the first full-blown general-election Electoral College forecast, from frontloadingHQ.com. The folks at FHQ looked at polls and recent electoral history and voting trends to take a stab at what the electoral college might look like on the night of November 8 if things don’t change much from today. And if you’re a fan of the candidate who’s a person of color—orange—it isn’t pretty.

They have it at Clinton 358, Trump 180. And if anything, they’re being a little conservative.
How could the spread be that big, when in most polls she’s still only a few points ahead? Or sometimes more than a few—a Bloomberg poll that dropped Tuesday evening has Clinton up 12 points, 49-37. A staggering 63% of women say that they could never vote for him. And whatever the popular margin ends up at, the college is remorseless, my friend. You just have to win a state. You win Ohio by 1 point or 20, you get the 18 electoral votes. And Clinton is projected to win nearly every big state.

>>>snip<<<

Okay, it’s all great fun, but what does it matter? Lord knows, as Dubya showed us, you’re as much the president with his 271 electoral votes as you are with Reagan’s 489. But still, it does matter. Two points.

One: It’s psychologically devastating for a party to lose a state it’s supposed to win. If, say, Clinton actually carried Georgia, it would wound the GOP badly and lead to loads of stories about how even the solid South is now slipping out of the ossified party’s geriatric hands. It wouldn’t be the same as, for example, Obama’s winning Indiana in 2008, which everyone knew was a fluke. Clinton winning Georgia wouldn’t be a fluke.

Two: It’s what the man himself deserves. There’s one word Trump hates more than any other in the English language, and it’s not “Mexican” or “Muslim.” It’s “loser.” How sweet it would be for him to have to live out his remaining years as a history-making loser. To a “girl,” no less! FHQ, from your spreadsheets to God’s ears.

http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2016/06/14/hillary-clinton-is-about-to-clean-donald-trump-s-clock.html?via=desktop&source=twitter

Still early, but this could be epic.

[leftofcool]

1. I predict Hillary in a landslide!

[auntpurl]

2. NO COMPLACENCY!

But yeah, this looks pretty good.

[amuse bouche]

3. I really want to see that disgusting Trump Turd crushed

I will dance in the street

[Lil Missy]

4. But, but .... Hillary can't win against Trump!! ONLY Sanders can win - I saw it on the DU!

I said a long time ago - my dog's hairy asshole could beat Trump.

[CrowCityDem]

5. And we're doing it with an undemocratic primary picking the wrong candidate! *snark*

[tonyt53]

6. It really is shaping up this way. Her campaign used that same map to wear out Bernie

[beachbum bob]

7. DNC has to push presence into redstates that have purple potential

we need it for senate and house races.....THE 50 state strategy will bankrupt conservatives...


texas, Georgia, south carolina to name a few

[auntpurl]

10. Agree, agree, agree

If we can do that, the Repub party is dead for a generation.

[Fla Dem]

11. Yes, this is our opportunity to take back many of those states.

The demographics are changing in many of the big cities in those states. Attitudes too. Who ever thought the Confederate flag would come down at the South Carolina Capitol grounds.

[beachbum bob]

12. I just hope DNC makes a move to provide for the state parties

this is a real opportunity to make serious inroads

[auntpurl]

14. They need to throw some money at GA and TX

Maybe Utah.

[PoliticAverse]

8. "You win Ohio by 1 point or 20, you get the 18 electoral votes." - That's the key point.

We choose the President by electoral college vote, and most states are "winner takes all".

Trump will get millions and millions of votes but on a state by state basis he is behind Clinton big
in electoral votes.

People that want to make the race seem closer than it is show polls based on national popular vote,
but that's not how we elect the President.

[Motley13]

9. Does this mean Bill & Hillary won't be invited to Deadbeat don's next wedding?

Soon the flim flam man can go back to selling his snake oil. He will be happily playing golf, while the Repups try to dig themselves out of the huge trench.
Reality show "how to destroy a major political party"
He is losing "bigly"

[hobbit709]

13. basket, no eggs, definitely no chickens

[Scurrilous]

15. K & R

[Sheepshank]

16. Life for anyone living around Trump, working with, friends with, peers, media etc.....will be hell

I cannot even imagine trying to live within a mile of his tantrums and lashing out. And he will lash out and blame everyone. His wife's life will be unbelievably chaotic and scary....believe me.

[LenaBaby61]

17. Early scorecard indeed.....

1)There have been no debates between Hillary and Orange Man.

2)We've just wrapped up a long primary on the Dem side FINALLY.

3)People are not really focusing in on the 'election' yet.

4)However for it being early on, things look promising thus far concerning the electoral college map.

[One of the 99]

18. Dukasis was 18 points ahead

in the summer of 88.

[Darb]

19. Link please.

Not that I don't believe you, just would like to see the source of that poll. And others from that time.

[One of the 99]

20. Here you go

http://www.nytimes.com/1988/07/26/us/dukakis-lead-widens-according-to-new-poll.html

[Darb]

23. That's one all right.

Sucks he didn't win. Smart leadership beginning back then would have led a long way toward a better today. H W is not T Rump though, so we got that going for us.

[LenaBaby61]

22. I've seen similar electoral college projections early on from:

The Cook Report, May 27th, 2016:
http://cookpolitical.com/presidential/charts/scorecard

And from Larry Sabato, March 31st, 2016:
http://www.270towin.com/maps/crystal-ball-2016-electoral-college-ratings


This particular Electoral College projection comes from Josh Putnam, June 13th, 2016.
http://frontloading.blogspot.com/2016/06/the-electoral-college-map-61316.html

However, for as good as these Electoral College projections look, we've had yet to have debates between Hillary and the Orange Man, and we've only just ended the Dem primary literally hours ago.

[mcar]

21. I think she (and his antics) will put several Red states in play

[Orsino]

24. Let's not discount all the knee-jerk Not Hillaries...

...who haven't yet listened to Trump trying to speak at length. I think he could easily fuck this up even worse.

[bigwillq]

25. My state will go blue.

[arcane1]

26. "Fear of Trump" is the best thing to happen to the Clinton campaign.

People will choose literally anyone but him.