A little dose of reality about "unity" in 2008

[pat_k]

In June '08 only 60% of Clinton supporters said they'd vote for Obama.

in July that number dropped to 54%.

In June 22% said they wouldn't vote at all if Obama was the nominee. 17% said they'd vote for McCain.

In July, even more -- 30% -- said they'd stay home.

http://www.cnn.com/2008/POLITICS/07/04/clinton.poll/

http://www.cnn.com/2008/POLITICS/06/09/clinton.supporters/index.html?iref=topnews

This rosey vision people seem to have about Clinton supporters flocking to Obama in a show unity after she endorsed him has no basis in reality.

[dsc]

1. Over 90% of her supporters eventually supported him

[pat_k]

2. Wait for things to play out.

I predict she'll get at least 80% of Sanders supporters, probably more like 85%.

Particularly with the current course he is taking.

If he can drive a hard bargain at the convention, maybe he can help smooth the path to unity by showing his supporters that he’s won concessions. He may have more credibility with his supporters when he eventually comes around to supporting Clinton. He’s not the typical politician — in many ways. He may never run again (he’ll be 78 in 2020). So why not drive a hard bargain?

http://www.nytimes.com/2016/06/17/upshot/bernie-sanders-and-the-terms-of-surrender.html

[RobertEarl]

5. DNC-HRC

Better start to grok the Bern, if they truly want unity and to beat Trump.

Bernie will do his part if they show a willingness to realize just what Bernie has brought to the table.

[Hortensis]

12. A Bloomberg poll just the other day showed

Last edited Fri Jun 17, 2016, 05:48 AM - Edit history (1)

15% of Democrats had "unfavorable" feelings about Hillary. It does not indicate how many of those 15% will vote for her and how many are implacably hostile.

RobertEarl, they've been giving Bernie those positive feelings and agreeing to concessions. They are not amateurs or simpletons, and through the entire election season they knew it would come to this point and planned for that.

Neither is Sanders a simpleton who can be wooed with some pets and admiring words. He is something of a hostile crank who believes they are all corrupt and he is not, that he has a special mission and the party leaders are an obstruction he would remove if he could (in the middle of the 2016 election!).

Having failed to "remove" Hillary and take over himself so he can begin eliminating more of the party leadership, he's also apparently more than usually thin skinned and tempery, something they're busy trying to deal successfully with of course. Just giving him all he asks for is, of course, not going to happen; even if they could and would, he'd just be encouraged to demand more. He has a mission.

[w4rma]

11. President Obama has the advantage of being far more charismatic with net positive favorability. (nt)

[HereSince1628]

15. Clinton has the advantage of running against the worst republican in a century

[w4rma]

16. You got that right. (nt)

[rusty quoin]

3. I see us Democrats as stable.

We don't have the Trump problem. That said, I see most Republicans voting for him, not because that party is stable, but because they are unstable. They only have media telling them where to go.

I was in McDonald's at breakfast the other day. They had a duggar daughter and the duck people on. There was nothing of substance.

This time after decades of waiting, fox and Limbaugh are finally only for the brainwashed people of my generation.

We are stable and they are crazy.

[NanceGreggs]

4. A dose of reality about 2008 ...

... Obama was elected.

Those who said they wouldn't vote for him either did anyway, or those who didn't were too small a number to make any difference.

Obama won. Hillary will win. THAT'S REALITY.

[pat_k]

6. Good. Cancel the election this Nov.

The outcome is already REALITY.

[NanceGreggs]

7. Is that supposed to mean something?

If so, I missed it.

[pat_k]

8. You declared Clinton GE win "REALITY"

So we can cancel the election.

[NanceGreggs]

9. ...

[joshcryer]

10. The DNC Convention was in August and you are revising history.

Hillary spent most of July (after conceding) and August packing the chair with women leaders along with working out details for unity, in particular, trying to get a voice vote so that she could end the roll call which the Obama campaign was very iffy on doing. If she was able to speak during the roll call she could have called for a recount, and a count of the popular vote, made a huge fuss about things, and it would've just been a mess, remember, she had only 62 less pledged delegates than Obama.

Here's part of Clinton's negotiation in 2008: http://thecaucus.blogs.nytimes.com/2008/08/08/clinton-role-playing-at-the-convention/

Clinton did get her roll call vote and she did nominate Obama by acclamation:

[pat_k]

13. Not relevant to a comparison of similar point in the process.

At this point in time, there can be no comparison between what happened in the weeks leading up to the convention in 2008 and the weeks leading up to the convention this year. The weeks leading up to the convention this year haven't happened yet.

The numbers I posted reflect a similar period of time. That is, the period of time just after the end of the last primaries. People are whinging about how Sanders is "hurting" Hillary now. I'm just pointing out that Hillary's endorsement of Obama in June certainly did not have a positive effect on the state of affairs in the following weeks.


The dynamics at play today are completely different. We'll see how things play out. There's negotiation going on behind the scenes now too. I think the course Sanders is taking is the best way...

1) to maximize the chances that the people he inspired to get active, stay active into the future, and

2) to maximize the number of his supporters who will come out for Clinton, and other Democrats, in Nov.

Both very good things.

But maybe he’s on the right track. If he can drive a hard bargain at the convention, maybe he can help smooth the path to unity by showing his supporters that he’s won concessions. He may have more credibility with his supporters when he eventually comes around to supporting Clinton. He’s not the typical politician — in many ways. He may never run again (he’ll be 78 in 2020). So why not drive a hard bargain?

http://www.nytimes.com/2016/06/17/upshot/bernie-sanders-and-the-terms-of-surrender.html

[joshcryer]

14. Hillary conceded a few days after the last primary.

You are right, there is no comparison between Hillary and Sanders. It's closer to Jerry Brown in 1992.

[grossproffit]

17. Amazing. She's an exceptional person.