Nate Cohn: Exit polls bias towards young voters ... Not "rigging"

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Nate Cohn Retweeted Nate Cohn

Exit polls bias towards young voters likely a big part of why they lean towards Bernie. Not "rigging"

https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/743834423423045632

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Exit polls had 65+ voters at 19% of the SC Dem primary electorate. Official vt history has it at 32%. 18-24 year olds just 2%, v. 7 in exits

https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/743834091708104704

[tonyt53]

1. But somebody had it otherwise on Facebook. If it is on Facebook, it has to be true.

What is the most striking is the actual ages of the typical voter and the rate at which that age group actually votes. Not really striking or a surprise though. It is a fact that people that have voted for years already knew.

[CorkySt.Clair]

12. Or if it's on some rando's wordpress blog

It's true then as well.

[CrowCityDem]

2. I never understood how people believed exit polls were more accurate than counting all the votes.

[farleftlib]

3. That sounds every bit as plausible

as the "shy" Bush voters in 2004.

[Adrahil]

5. except that....

... it undeniable that the exit poll models expected larger youth turn-out than was historically experienced. Many of them believed that Bernie would significantly increase youth turn-out in the primaries. But he didn't really move the needle all that mush. In the example cited, the poll predicted a 60-75% increase in youth vote share. That'll get you in trouble.

[Adrahil]

4. Nate Silver pointed this out too.

The exit poll turnout models often overestimated youth turnout and underestimated minority turn-out.

[geek tragedy]

6. in general elections, they've actually overestimated minority turnout

which would have been good news for Trump, except that he's too psychotic to take advantage of it

[Adrahil]

7. Yes, they have. And they have a habit of overestimated Democratic turnout, in general. NT

[hollysmom]

8. Oh good another democrat who likes money and pro otes

All charter schools.

[NurseJackie]

9. Interesting.

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