If you must follow betting sites, follow ones closed to Americans
Americans can bet on InTrade through wire transfers. Rich Republicans and irrational Romney supporters can give their money away to keep Rmoney's price high, because they are betting against other people.
On European sportsbooks, like BetFair, Americans are blocked from depositing. Sharp, intelligent Europeans bet on results:
https://touch.betfair.com/#/market_1_21L311313?ts=13522151463
That's a mobile link from my phone. If it doesn't work, just google betfair presidential election winner.
Right now they have Obama at 81% to win. The lowest I saw it was 66% three weeks ago. He was at 77% last night so he climbed during the day today and during our wee hours. Remember they are five hours ahead of us.
So take the number on the link above for Obama, 1.23, and divide 1 by it. 1 divided by 1.23 is 81%.
So when someone gives you data about what's happening in the election results, check BetFair. If their odds for Obama arent falling sharply, ignore it.
Bookmakers have to be right on the odds with regularity or they go out of business. Dick Morris can be wrong ten times a day without consequences.