2016 Postmortem
Related: About this forumList the characteristics Hillary needs in a VP
I don't know who she'll pick, and she'll probably wait to learn who Trump is likely to pick first.
Knowing what we know now, this is my prediction for the type of VP she'll pick:
A moderate, middle-aged white man who will deliver a swing state and/or help bring independent and Republican whites' votes to Hillary.
My reasoning? Hillary no longer needs to choose a Latino running mate, as long as Trump is the Republican nominee. Latinos hate him, as do other minorities. Progressives won't vote for Trump.
If Hillary can win back the Reagan Republicans she stands a chance of winning in a historically lopsided landslide and possibly reversing 40 years of electoral politics.
Botany
(70,490 posts)Elizabeth Warren
Ain't gonna happen
Hortensis
(58,785 posts)have short dyed blonde hair (flattering in front of cameras), be a ferociously effective attack dog while somehow remaining likeable and appealing, have a national reputation for commitment economic reform and financial probity, and be seriously feared by Wall Street.
Bernie
He is best suited to be a president. If we are not wise enough to make it so, let us hope HRC is.
Lyric
(12,675 posts)Why just break a glass ceiling when you can shatter it utterly and for all time? And I trust Warren with the nation if something happens to Clinton. I don't trust Tim Kaine or Julian Castro. They just aren't on the same level as Liz.
cali
(114,904 posts)At least that's my belief.
I think she needs someone she'll listen to and who she respects, who is not as hawkish as she is.
auntpurl
(4,311 posts)I still think that as America's largest-growing demographic, it is about time they have representation at the highest level. Much as it is past due time for a woman to be president (and was past due time for an African American to be president when it was Obama's election), it is also past due time for a Latino to represent the large and mostly loyally Democratic Latino population.
If we assume women, Latinos, AAs, and LGBT are the Democratic base, then we should be representing that base in our leaders, yes?
yardwork
(61,588 posts)Hortensis
(58,785 posts)Last edited Tue Jun 21, 2016, 06:46 PM - Edit history (1)
good number of minorities into the higher strata of government the way Obama has done.
One thing I've noticed is that social justice is not hit much in discussion of VP candidates. Ironically, Tim Kaine is the only I've read about (none at all deeply) with social justice creds mentioned.
Cory Booker might have a fine record, but the few things I've read just hit up his enthusiasm for tech issues and forward thinking. He says he's not being vetted, anyway, don't know why.
Labor Secretary Tom Perez has business mad at him, which sounds encouraging, but... He was assistant head of the DOJ's civil right division and apparently may have developed the same sort of tarnish in that position as Julian Castro in his.
I'll read more about any who's nominated, but good solid social justice creds, and gun control, would be nice in the VP nominee.
And I don't think the VP will be a white man unless he's gay and his husband is a POC. I think it will be a Hispanic man, and probably Castro because he can likely bring Texas with him.
There are really only two roles for a VP--apprentice and mentor. Hillary doesn't need a mentor.
yeoman6987
(14,449 posts)Hispanic candidates. I couldn't believe our lack of people of color this primary. Quite shocking and disappointing for our party of diversity!
FSogol
(45,476 posts)sure they were still alive.
BootinUp
(47,141 posts)1. Can be seen as able to step in as President, so needs strong resume
2. Good at connecting with people
3. Not seen as an insider, so probably not a long record in DC
4. No scandals (of course)
5. Good at responding to questions and hitting the right notes.
auntpurl
(4,311 posts)Very tough to strike that balance I would think!
BootinUp
(47,141 posts)they market the candidate and how impressive the candidate is presence wise etc.
auntpurl
(4,311 posts)they could find the balance.
Hortensis
(58,785 posts)technique because, done right, it works just fine. Warren would be easy to market as "outside" while hitting all the other criteria.
MineralMan
(146,286 posts)Pretty much, you have it, I think. Her VP pick is not likely to be anyone particularly charismatic. The swing state thing is probably going to be the main issue. Think Pennsylvania or Ohio. She also needs to balance her ticket, gender-wise, I think.
I know that's a sort of cynical thing to say, but it's how this all works. The VP candidate doesn't really have to be someone who will follow her term(s) in office as a candidate. The person she chooses does need to have broad experience in government and some substantial international affairs chops, though.
The point is to find someone about whom people could say, "Yeah, that person could step up and do a decent job in the worst case."
Her pick will be a traditional political choice, I think.
yardwork
(61,588 posts)MineralMan
(146,286 posts)I don't look for Hillary to do anything too off the normal track, really. As the first woman running for President with a major party, she's already pushing the envelope, so a traditional choice seems likely to me.
bonemachine
(757 posts)Electing a rich white woman will be enough progress for this election cycle, for sure.
Hortensis
(58,785 posts)that they want bold steps. I suspect Hillary the policy wonk appears pretty solid and competent, a good top manager, to most who will vote for her, but for most not exciting. And although electing a woman is progress, yes, it's not at the very top of the lists of a vast majority of people. Just electing a woman won't substitute for what is. Nor will standing a mainstream Hispanic alongside her.
People across the political spectrum want money out of politics and checks on that giant sucking sound and other anti-democratic activities of "corporations" and the very wealthy. Both the Trump and Sanders movements are populist movements that support regulation of business and protection of our social programs from their right-wing enemies. And of course Hillary's supporters do too.
These are the big concerns shared by almost all blocs. A VP whose very presence promised a commitment to that change would be my choice. Whatever sex, color, or ethnicity is far less important. All who'd vote the Democratic ticket, including many moderate conservatives, are now emotionally comfortable with and well used to that kind of diversity.
yardwork
(61,588 posts)We'll see. A lot depends on where Trump is in the polls when Hillary announces her VP choice.
geek tragedy
(68,868 posts)having Clinton's confidence in her/his ability to step in.
this is a political point as well as a substantive one, as the case against Trump is that he's unfit.
McCain stepped on his own ying-yang when he tried to run against Obama's experience while choosing Sarah Palin as his VP.
frazzled
(18,402 posts)AFTER the campaign. The person must be trusted as an advisor, but also, once presidential policies are decided (by the president), they must be trusted to carry the message and execution of that policy out (like it or not).
I must reiterate: The vice presidency is not just about who can be an effective attack dog on the stump or a good one-time debater, or who can deliver a swing state. It's a long-term job.
yardwork
(61,588 posts)Goblinmonger
(22,340 posts)She needs to make sure that the progressive wing of the party knows she is serious. She needs to do this to keep the millennials in the party and give them a reason to vote.
yardwork
(61,588 posts)The questions on the minds of the Clinton team are #1, how do they ensure a victory, and then, secondarily, how do they set up a Clinton presidency with as much momentum and leverage as possible? For instance, if the ticket has long coat tails, Democrats can win back control of the Senate, allowing the Clinton presidency far more historic legislation.
This is why I think that they will lean toward picking a white moderate man who will help deliver independents and moderate Republicans. If those folks can be persuaded to vote for the Democrat - and Trump gives us the best opportunity to swing those voters since the 1970s - then they are likely to vote for Democratic senatorial and congressional candidates too. It's all about straight ticket voting.
This is why Trump is a nightmare for the Republicans.
Garrett78
(10,721 posts)I think there's much to be said for selecting someone such as Becerra or Booker. A relatively young POC with whom she can get along. Someone who would then be a strong candidate in 2024. Someone who reflects the increasing diversity of the US and will keep civil rights on the front burner.
Given her likelihood of winning, I'd encourage her to worry less about making a supposed "safe" choice. I'd encourage her to think more about firing up the base and picking someone who can succeed her.
I'd encourage her to think more about firing up the base and picking someone who can succeed her.
CrispyQ
(36,457 posts)I pick MOM - Martin O'Malley. But anyone with the qualities above would be a good choice. However, I suspect you're right & she will pick:
A moderate, middle-aged white man who will deliver a swing state and/or help bring independent and Republican whites' votes to Hillary.
~yawn.
yardwork
(61,588 posts)Too bad there are so many morans out there.
Garrett78
(10,721 posts)CrispyQ
(36,457 posts)And middle age is relative. He comes across very youthful & high energy.
Garrett78
(10,721 posts)Some Republicans might vote for Clinton simply because Trump is so atrocious, but I don't think Clinton's VP selection will have much if any impact on how many Republicans do so.
AgingAmerican
(12,958 posts)Republicans will never vote for her, and every time she tries to woo them, she loses support of more and more Democrats.
yardwork
(61,588 posts)AgingAmerican
(12,958 posts)By huge margins.
It's time for the Democratic party to abandon the right wing thinking and go back to our roots. Before all this right wing, the Democrats controlled the congress for 50 years. More right wing will just bring more and more of the same (losses).
She wastes time and money wooing people who hate her at her own peril.
dsc
(52,155 posts)Tim Kaine did to the extent that the DNC is responsible (and that is debatable in my mind). She was chair for two elections (2012 and 2014). In 2012, we actually gained Senate seats, got more votes for the House than the GOP did (but lost due to gerrymandering that occurred after the 2010 elections), and split the governorships that were up. In 2014, we lost big so she does deserve at least some blame for that.
auntpurl
(4,311 posts)and there are many more Republican women who won't say it out loud, but are never in a million years going to pull the level for Trump when they're in the privacy of the voting booth.
And anyway, this is more about centrist Independents, not full-on Republicans. They can be gotten.
AgingAmerican
(12,958 posts)To move to the 'center' is to abandon EVERYBODY chasing ghosts.
auntpurl
(4,311 posts)AgingAmerican
(12,958 posts)And abandoning your own base in the process.
Lucinda
(31,170 posts)that she indicated would be at the top of her early agenda. So someone with experience with immigration, gun control, infrastructure, or clean energy etc. Definitely someone who is a problem solver. I don't think her VP will be in a ceremonial position in any way.
Donald Ian Rankin
(13,598 posts)Sherrod Brown, Elizabeth Warren and Corey Booker would all be perfectly good running mates in themselves, but I think they'd be very poor choices of running mate.
yardwork
(61,588 posts)Lyric
(12,675 posts)Then there'd be a special election to replace her. It wouldn't hurt us in the end.
ecstatic
(32,685 posts)but he would be an unconventional choice (young black bachelor) in an unconventional year. Imagine a VP wedding, baby, etc. over the next 8 years...That's would be pretty exciting too. Then he could run and win in 2024.
AntiBank
(1,339 posts)banks and Wall street, he attacked Obama over Mitten's Bain capital, he is big time pro Netanyahu/hard right Israel (he calls all aspects of the BDS movement anti-semitic), is for the Patriot Act, is fairly pro gun, he is an advocate for the privatization of education, he pushes things such as charter schools, school vouchers, and merit pay for teachers, he supports raising the age for SS for people under a certain age, etc etc.
He will drive out a lot of progressives and totally lift the veil off any attempts to downplay the corporatist aspects of Clinton and the party in general.
CK_John
(10,005 posts)William769
(55,144 posts)Can be President.
treestar
(82,383 posts)I am for the Latino as that will help with the Latino vote.
One_Life_To_Give
(6,036 posts)Omit anybody who might possibly upstage Potus.